College football picks and predictions for all 67 games in Week 11, straight-up and ATS

2026 College Football picks record – Straight-up: 507-166 (Last Week: 36-27) | Against the spread: 353-318-1 (Last Week: 29-34)

College football picks for every Week 11 game, straight-up and ATS

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Expert picks and analysis for the biggest Week 11 CFB games

Wake Forest at SMU (-1.5)

It brings me no pleasure to report this, as Wake has been one of the true feel-good stories of the season so far. But I think the Cinderella run comes to an end this weekend in Dallas, as the Deacs run into an SMU team that appears to be finding its stride at the right time — and still has a Playoff spot very much in their sights. 

Wake insists that starting QB Gio Lopez is full-go after missing last week’s romp over FCS Merrimack due to injury, but he appears to at least be wearing a brace, and that’s cause for some concern. It’s not that I think the Deacs are paper tigers; they gave Miami a very hard time back in September, and they’ve already gone on the road and beaten Louisville. But this year’s Mustangs have shown a bit more defensive spine than we’re used to, and a willingness to lean on their ground game. They can win in multiple different ways, and I just trust them slightly more at home.

USC (+7.5) at Indiana

Lord help me, I’m backing a Lincoln Riley team traveling to the Midwest. Admittedly, though, this has more to do with how I feel about Indiana at the moment, as the Hoosiers might well be without starting QB Josh Hoover and needed a minor miracle to escape a home upset at the hands of Minnesota two weekends ago.

And now this team is giving more than a touchdown to the Trojans? I’m a bit skeptical, even if the size of the number does make me wonder whether Vegas simply knows something I don’t. It’s entirely possible that this USC defense doesn’t have an answer for Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh, and that Indiana’s still-sturdy defense rises up; getting more than a touchdown here, though, I’ll back the Trojans to at least keep things close. — Chris Landers

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Tennessee at Texas A&M (+2.5)

Sometimes our friends in the desert are trying to tell us something, and we’d do well to pay attention. On the surface, it would seem strange that a top-10 Tennessee team that just flattened Kentucky last Saturday would be giving less than a field goal to a 4-5 Texas A&M team that’s just playing out the string of a lost season. But I think the Aggies are very live dogs here.

For starters, A&M’s near-upset at South Carolina last week should put to rest any notion that Mike Elko’s team has quit. Kyle Field will be rocking as they look to take at least one scalp before the end of the year, I still have questions about what happens to this Tennessee team once they have to, you know, complete a forward pass.

Because they might have to in this game in a way they simply didn’t against Kentucky (or in the win over Alabama). The strength of this Aggies defense is in stopping the run and knocking you off schedule (13th in the country in success rate allowed). If DeSean Bishop can’t carry this Vols offense, do they have another answer? I think the answer is no, and with a raucous home crowd behind them I think A&M wins a rock fight of a game. — Chris Landers

Oregon State at Boise State (-14.5)

Unfortunately, what was supposed to be one of the biggest Group of Six matchups of the entire season has lost a ton of its luster now that it's time to take to the blue turf. Oregon State has come on some hard times and, to make matters worse, standout quarterback Braden Atkinson is looking like he'll be unavailable for this game. To make things even worse for the Beavers in this matchup, Boise State is expected to get Maddux Madsen back on the field — thoug Max Cutforth looked plenty capable last week for the Broncos regardless.

Oregon State's defense has been an Achilles heel over this tough run for the Beavers lately, which likely means that this team is going to end up with Boise State not getting stopped and Oregon State struggling to come up with stops. The line is a hook over two touchdowns, but I think that's not nearly as one-sided as this game likely ends up being. The Broncos win in a blowout, which again is just unfortunate given how forward we were looking to this game. — Cody Williams

Utah (-2.5) at Arizona

It's a letdown spot as clear as day for Utah. They won Holy War, they're getting gassed up as one of the two or three best (or at least top-ranked) teams in college football, and now they have to go on the road to face a pesky and quite good Arizona team. If ever the Utes were going to get upset, it would make complete sense for it to be this game. Yet, I'm still riding with Morgan Scalley's Utah in this matchup to get it done and keep the zero in the loss column.

Ultimately, the deciding factor in this game is going to be the Utah rushing attack behind Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker. Their dynamism on the ground is hard for anyone to defend, but Arizona has been mediocre in run defense this season while also struggling to run the ball themselves, ranking 95th in rushing Success Rate this year. That will flip the game control on its head and, given that Utah's defense has simply been a touch better overall throughout the season, that will prove to be the difference to get the Utes their 10th straight victory. — Cody Williams

Texas (+4.5) at LSU

Brother, this one could go a billion different directions. It's a College Football Playoff do-or-die game for LSU in Baton Rouge, but could also be an eliminator for Texas all the same (though I'm dubious that's the case). More importantly, the Tigers have struggled in their biggest games this season, which is an unfortunate continuance of Lane Kiffin's career as a head coach. But let's not act like Arch Manning and Steve Sarkisian have been anything close to perfect in most of their efforts throughout the 2026 campaign.

So, what gives? Honestly, I expect a slugfest full of mistakes on both sides of the ball. The defenses are the two best units in this game, and we know that both Arch and Sam Leavitt are prone to mistakes. However, I'm going with the Longhorns not just covering on the road but also just winning outright. Their run game with Raleek Brown and a slew of young up-and-comers inspires more faith than LSU's, and I think they can fall back on that in a defensive struggle to ultimately scrape by with a win that sends the Tigers to four-loss purgatory. — Cody Williams

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