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College football rankings: Projected AP Top 25 after Texas stuns LSU, Georgia clowns Mizzou, Indiana ends USC

Projecting the AP Top 25 college football rankings after Week 11, as Texas came back to shock LSU, Georgia blasted Missouri, Indiana ended USC's CFP hopes and Wake Forest demolished SMU, as well as so much more.
ByCody Williams
Texas v LSU
Texas v LSU | Aric Becker/ISI Photos/GettyImages

Considering that Ole Miss and Oklahoma are playing on Sunday, multiple start times were pushed back and that we had so many injuries and ranked matchups, we should've known college football was going to get weird in Week 11. Texas and Arch Manning somehow fighting back to beat LSU was strange, Georgia dismantling Missouri may not have been, but teams USC's poor effort against Indiana or Wake Forest steamrolling SMU certainly were. Oh, and let's not forget South Carolina and New Mexico losing absolute stunners. Yeah, it was a strange day, one that's going to make the AP Top 25 college football rankings even stranger.

Four teams are projected to drop out of the rankings after this week's results, which means some new blood. The thing about the AP Top 25 college football rankings is that you have to rank 25 teams, and this is our best prediction for what the AP voters will have in store for us.

Dropped Out of Rankings: 20 South Carolina Gamecocks, 23 New Mexico Lobos, 24 LSU Tigers, 25 SMU Mustangs

No. 25-21

AP Top 25 college football rankings
UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Owen McCown | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

25. UTSA Roadrunners (Still playing vs. North Texas)

  • Last Rank: Unranked
  • Result: TBD
  • Record: 7-2

All told, with the way that the rankings shook out in relation to the results this week, there’s a real chance that we could still see a team like South Carolina or even LSU ranked with four losses. However, I prefer to look to the American and an essential play-in matchup between UTSA and North Texas. These teams have been playing extremely well in the conference and, with so few deserving teams rankings, I think they find enough love to crack into the AP Top 25.

24. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Still playing vs. 10 Texas Tech)

  • Last Rank: Unranked
  • Result: TBD
  • Record: 6-3

After getting a nod a the back-end of the CFP rankings, Oklahoma State entered Saturday night with a golden opportunity. For as good as Texas Tech can be, they are not a perfect or invulnerable team. So with the Red Raiders coming to Stillwater, it was a chance for the Cowboys to reassert themselves and make a real push for the Big 12 Championship Game. That’s easier said than done, of course, but the Pokes have been good enough (and still have that win over Oregon) to get the boost back into the AP Top 25.

AP Top 25 college football rankings
Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

23. Houston Cougars

  • Last Rank: 14
  • Result: lost to Colorado, 42-32
  • Record: 7-3

As far as inexcusable losses go, the one Houston suffered in Boulder on Friday night has to be among them. While Houston’s losses to Utah and Texas Tech this season ultimately had them behind the 8-ball in the Big 12 Championship Game chase, they were still knocking on the door in the CFP rankings and just needed to handle business. Losing to a Buffs team that looked dead in the water simply can’t happen and now the Cougars are going to be nowhere near the playoff picture.

22. Liberty Flames

  • Last Rank: Unranked
  • Result: def. MTSU, 28-23
  • Record: 9-1

Especially with New Mexico taking a shocking loss to UNLV on Saturday night in Albuquerque, we need another G6 representative breaking into the AP Top 25 and Liberty is sitting right there at 9-1. Jamey Chadwell’s team has gone under the radar this season, but they’ve continued to dominate the competition in Conference USA. Well, maybe not dominate, but Kam Davis and Deshawn Purdie haven’t been stopped yet in conference play this season. 

21. Louisville Cardinals

  • Last Rank: Unranked
  • Result: def. North Carolina, 16-14
  • Record: 7-3

Louisville needs to get a bit more love. Granted, the win over North Carolina on Saturday night was ugly, but it was another win and the Cardinals have sneakily played themselves into the conversation as a quality three-loss team. The resumé, of course, isn’t a ton to write home about, but Jeff Brohm’s team continues to fight it out against ACC competition and string together wins while other candidates to break into the AP Top 25 falter.

No. 20-16

AP Top 25 college football rankings
USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

20. USC Trojans

  • Last Rank: 15
  • Result: lost to 6 Indiana, 27-13
  • Record: 7-3

Did we expect anything else from Lincoln Riley? USC had a golden opportunity to notch another signature win this season over a ranked opponent and potentially make a legitimate and viable case as a playoff team as they went on the road to Bloomington. Instead, the team got pushed around and, despite some explosive moments, simply couldn’t finish on either side of the ball. The Trojans will still be ranked and are a good football team at their core, but they’re also undeniably not CFP-caliber, which they proved again.

19. Arizona Wildcats (Still playing vs. 2 Utah)

  • Last Rank: 22
  • Result: TBD
  • Record: 7-2

The unfortunate reality for Arizona is that, entering Week 11, the Wildcats have been one of the Big 12’s better teams this year, just not one of the best. That has been proven in their two biggest games of consequence this year, an early loss to BYU and then to Texas Tech on Halloween. Noah Fifita and Co. were competitive in both, but came up short. However, a win over Utah in Tuscon would change a helluva lot about Arizona and their national perception.

18. Kentucky Wildcats

  • Last Rank: 13
  • Result: lost to Florida, 21-14
  • Record: 7-3

Not to be rude, because what Will Stein has done at Kentucky this season has been wildly impressive, but we all saw this coming to some degree, right? The Wildcats have a brutal finishing stretch and have now lost their last two games. Florida didn’t bully them in the same way Tennessee did, of course, but the fact that the offense was stonewalled by a Gators defense that has struggled is worrisome. It’s still a bang-on season for the Wildcats in Stein’s first year, but the CFP hopes may have been a pipe dream.

AP Top 25 college football rankings
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

17. Ohio State Buckeyes

  • Last Rank: 21
  • Result: def. Northwestern, 28-19
  • Record: 7-3

The good sign for Ohio State in the tight win over Northwestern is that Luke Fahey finally learned to hit the easy button, which is finding Jeremiah Smith — the now Heisman favorite — in the passing game. Bo Jackson also ran well in this game. However, the Buckeyes defense still gave up 19 points in a game where Aidan Chiles didn’t play. Chip Kelly is a good offensive mind, but that’s a cause for concern over the final two weeks for OSU. 

16. Ole Miss Rebels (Still to play on Sunday vs. Oklahoma)

  • Last Rank: 19
  • Result: TBD
  • Record: 6-3

Oklahoma fans were big mad over the FAA’s ground stop ultimately led to Ole Miss not being able to travel and, thus, the game being moved to Sunday. That throws a massive wrench in the potential AP Top 25 rankings, which are still slated to come out before this game is even played. That’ll be interesting to see, more so because the Rebels and Sooners will now have a short week after the travel delays and ultimately the postponement of this game. However, it’s one Pete Golding’s team needs to win to have a shred of a chance to make the CFP.

No. 15-11

AP Top 25 college football rankings
Boise State Broncos | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

15. Boise State Broncos

  • Last Rank: 17
  • Result: def. Oregon State, 46-41
  • Record: 9-1

Few teams are giving me as much trouble trying to figure them out as Boise State. Based on the record and the fact that the Broncos’ one loss this season came in a legitimate battle with Oregon, they’re the clear and obvious favorite for the Group of Six spot in the playoff. At the same time, the defense keeps looking worrisome, this time letting an Oregon State team without its starting quarterback and that had struggled of late take them to the wire. They got the win and are now in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but they also seem to be playing with fire.

14. Oregon Ducks

  • Last Rank: 18
  • Result: def. Michigan, 31-7
  • Record: 7-3

Dylan Raiola and the Oregon offense continues to find their stride. I was confident in the Ducks in this matchup simply because Michigan has struggled so terribly to move the ball this season, and Oregon has the horses to keep that trend running. But the Ducks ran away with this game on the back of four Raiola touchdown passes and, don’t look now, but Dan Lanning’s team is quietly making a dark-horse run closer to a playoff spot (though I think they ultimately end up falling just short).

AP Top 25 college football rankings
Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Hank Brown | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

13. Iowa Hawkeyes

  • Last Rank: 16
  • Result: def. Purdue, 28-7
  • Record: 8-2

The chances of Iowa making the College Football Playoff do still feel a bit shaky at this point, but the Hawkeyes have been masters of just simply taking care of business. They have a home game against Purdue? They let Hank Brown do just enough through the air while rushing for 246 yards to completely control the game and walk away with a comfortable victory. This team isn’t going anywhere, but they finish with a tough stretch as they go on the road to face Illinois and finish at home against Nebraska.

12. BYU Cougars

  • Last Rank: 12
  • Result: def. Baylor, 28-7
  • Record: 8-2

After having a tough go of it in recent weeks, even in wins, it was good to see BYU get off the mat in this win and handle Baylor like a Top 15 team in the sport should. Bear Bachmeier accounted for all of the Cougars’ scores in this game, but more importantly, the defense put the clamps on the Bears to guide them to a win. BYU is anything but out of the CFP or the Big 12 Championship Game mix, but they have to keep playing like this and avoid tripping up at all.

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11. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

  • Last Rank: 11
  • Result: def. SMU, 49-7
  • Record: 9-1

Everyone was circling Saturday’s trip for Wake Forest to the DFW as the real test for a team that, admittedly, hasn’t faced the toughest schedule to this point and lost their lone “big” game of the season against Miami, albeit in a competitive effort. Well, if this was a proving ground, the Demon Deacs have nothing left to prove. This was pure dominance from Gio Lopez and the rest of Jake Dickert’s team as they completely steamrolled SMU in emphatic fashion. If the Deacs don’t get more CFP love this week, it’ll be a crying shame.

No. 10-9

AP Top 25 college football rankings
Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Thomas Castellanos | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

10. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Still playing vs. Oklahoma State)

  • Last Rank: 10
  • Result: TBD
  • Record: 8-1

Texas Tech undeniably found new offensive life with the switch from Will Hammond to Tommy Castellanos at quarterback. A month ago, they would’ve lost the shootout that they got into with West Virginia last week. And the same is probably true of this matchup with Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders defense simply isn’t what it was last season (and might not even be close), so they needed a spark on the other side of the ball and Joey McGuire pulled the right lever to find it. 

Having said that, we’ve seen Castellanos in college football before. The ceiling has never been in question with his dual-threat ability, and he has more weapons around him with the Red Raiders than he probably has at any other point in his career. That being said, there has also always been volatility in his game. Whether that bites Texas Tech at some point remains to be seen, but it does leave them with a shakier foundation than the 2025 defense offered.

9. Tennessee Volunteers

  • Last Rank: 9
  • Result: def. Texas A&M, 22-7
  • Record: 8-2

The AP Top 25 isn’t treating Tennessee as egregiously as the CFP rankings have been, particularly with the Vols’ relation to an Alabama team that they beat by 16 points earlier in the season. However, things got hairy for Josh Heupel’s team after a long bus ride to College Station following the travel delays that so many teams experienced and the Vols ended up having to fight hard to get it done. 

There wasn’t much pretty on offense as George MacIntyre couldn’t do anything through the air besides check down and the run game wasn’t all that effective either, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on the day. But Tennessee’s offense isn’t its calling card — it’s Jim Knowles’ defense and they shined in this game. They limited Marcel Reed and A&M to just 179 yards of total offense and created two interceptions as well. The entire operation will be tested against LSU next week, but the defense gives the Vols such a high baseline.

No. 8-7

AP Top 25 college football rankings
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

8. Texas Longhorns

  • Last Rank: 8
  • Result: def. LSU, 22-21
  • Record: 8-2

Steve Sarkisian and Texas might have a horseshoe the size of the state they play in somewhere in the locker room (or otherwise). Once again, Arch Manning and the Longhorns did not play a terrific game. The defense was nails for the most part in this game, picking Sam Leavitt off three times, but Arch and the offense gave it right back as he threw three picks of his own and failed to score at all off of the turnovers. And yet, when the dust settled, Texas won. 

Between an elite fourth-quarter defensive effort from the Longhorns and some well-schemed and well-executed plays from Sarkisian and Manning, respectively, Texas clawed back into this game and found Raleek Brown in the final seconds for the game-winning touchdown. It was an unreal result, but one that gives the Longhorns five wins (for now) against ranked opponents this season. They may well be a lock for the playoff now.

7. Alabama Crimson Tide

  • Last Rank: 7
  • Result: def. Vanderbilt, 21-6
  • Record: 8-2

What a strange game for Alabama. There were reports leading into Saturday that Kalen DeBoer might go with backup quarterback Austin Mack to start this game under center to rest Keelon Russell. However, after Friday’s practice and then warmups on Saturday, he then gave the keys back to Russell. Whether related to that or not, what ended up happening was a disjointed effort on the road in Nashville from the Crimson Tide, albeit still in a pretty decisive winning effort. 

The Alabama defense unltimately carried this game, which they’re more than capable of doing. However, with two turnovers and while averaging only 2.6 yards per carry in the game, there was a lot left to be desired from Russell and the Tide offense. The good news for this group, though, is that they get another soft matchup next week against FCS Chattanooga before finishing up the regular season with the Iron Bowl.

No. 6-5 

AP Top 25 college football rankings
Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Grant Wilson | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

6. Indiana Hoosiers

  • Last Rank: 6
  • Result: def. 15 USC, 27-13
  • Record: 9-1

Now that only Washington and Purdue remain on the schedule, Indiana is quite close to being locked into the College Football Playoff field for a chance to defend their national championship — though the selection committee certainly didn’t give them any respect with the No. 9 ranking this past week. But the Hoosiers took on USC in a game without Josh Hoover and, frankly, looked superior from start to finish. 

Bryant Haines’ defense has been the calling card all year for the Hoosiers, and it showed in this win as they made life extremely difficult for Jayden Maiava and refused to break in the red zone on top of that. But the real revelation might be Grant Wilson, who started in Hoover’s stead. He was great in his relief effort and, given both Hoover’s injury and underperformance this season, now puts a difficult question at QB in front of Curt Cignetti down the home stretch.

5. Miami Hurricanes

  • Last Rank: 5
  • Result: def. Duke, 36-25
  • Record: 9-1

It’s hard to say what we witnessed from Miami in a home ACC tilt against Duke on Saturday. On one hand, you could easily and deservedly write off what wasn’t the Hurricanes’ best effort, even in victory, as they were coming off the grueling loss to Notre Dame that they suffered last week. However, there’s also a chance that this effort was indicative of just how banged up Mario Cristobal’s team is right now and that they are ultimately standing on shaky ground. 

Darian Mensah, Javian Mallory and Cooper Barkate all had monster games. But the Miami offense isn’t on trial in this one. Nate Sheppard was borderline unstoppable for the Canes offense in this game, nearly registering 100 rushing and receiving yards in the loss for Duke. This Hurricanes defense needs to get right, but we’ll get a better signal for where they are on that side of the ball, even against lesser competition, over the final two games.

No. 4-3

AP Top 25 college football rankings
UCLA Bruins quarterback Ty Dieffenbach | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

4. UCLA Bruins

  • Last Rank: 4
  • Result: def. Illinois
  • Record: 10-0

UCLA might not have any ranked opponents before the season finale against USC, but they’re still being tested. Not only did they pass the test on the road against Minnesota last week with aplomb, but the Bruins then welcomed a white-hot Illinois team to the Rose Bowl on a short week for a Friday showdown. To make matters more difficult, they lost Ty Dieffenbach early in the game due to injury, forcing third-stringer Madden Iamaleava into action for extended time. 

Dieffenbach returned, though, and UCLA held on for yet another win that keeps the Bruins undefeated on the season. This team just has the right formula, though they do clearly need Dieffenbach healthy. They play top-end defense, they run the ball well with multiple backs and they have been hitting explosive plays in the passing game. That’s the formula to keep winning and easily punch a ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game. They may be close to locking up a CFP berth as well, if they haven’t already.

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  • Last Rank: 3
  • Result: def. Boston College, 41-7
  • Record: 9-1

Notre Dame and their fans should be thankful that they got the win over Miami, because I’m not sure another quality win is going to be on their resumé to this point. SMU looked like a speed bump for Wake ahead of their matchup with the Irish next week, but there was also the Wisconsin win that now looks worse as the Badgers took their fourth loss. But for the Irish’s part, they did what they were supposed to against lesser competition on Saturday, steamrolling Boston College even while not necessarily playing their A-game. 

CJ Carr, frankly, didn’t have to do a ton in this game, though he did end with two touchdown throws. However, the story for the offense was the run game, which averaged 6.9 yards per carry, and a defense that held Boston College to a minuscule 136 total yards of offense. The Irish aren’t going to be able to do that against everyone, obviously, but they were able to coast in this one on the back of that elite defense. If they keep doing that, they should waltz comfortably into the CFP. The question becomes if they’re a top-four seed or not.

No. 2-1

AP Top 25 college football rankings
Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

2. Utah Utes (Still playing vs. 22 Arizona)

  • Last Rank: 2
  • Result: TBD
  • Record: 9-0

Utah entered the week as one of just two undefeated teams remaining in college football, but with no rest for this team. After taking down BYU a week ago in a heated Holy War, the Utes had to go on the road to face a pesky Arizona team. To make matters more uncertain for Morgan Scalley’s team, though, the travel delays across the country forced this game into one of the latest kickoffs of Week 11 in college football, which feels like when chaos is truly born. 

That being said, there is little reason to doubt the Utes at this point. Their early-season schedule was soft, and they largely dominated behind Devon Dampier and Wayshawn Parker against that lesser competition. Then came the tests, and they’ve passed them one after another. Houston was dispatched, Cincinnati too and then rival BYU. They have separated themselves quite clearly in the Big 12 this season and have shown little signs of letting up.

1. Georgia Bulldogs

  • Last Rank: 1
  • Result: def. Missouri, 48-21
  • Record: 9-1

Put simply, Georgia is leaving zero doubt who the best team in college football is — at least for right now. Before Missouri even had a chance to realize they were in Athens, the Bulldogs had jumped out to a 31-0 lead and then just turned on the cruise control and never looked back. Even in doing so, Kirby Smart’s team still topped Missouri in the second half (17-14) and rolled on for their ninth win of the year already as they set up to finish at South Carolina and against rival Georgia Tech. 

What’s so impressive about Georgia right now, especially when at full strength, is how many ways they can beat you. It was on full display against the Tigers too. They limited what had been a prolific Mizzou offense to under 300 yards of total offense. They averaged 11 yards per pass and 5.4 yards per rush. And they dominated this game so thoroughly while still turning the ball over once. The Dawgs are electric, and it doesn’t seem like there’s any slowing them down at this point. 

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