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Projecting Miami’s path back to a CFP first-round bye after beating Duke

After falling out of the top four, the Hurricanes took the first step toward climbing back in.
ByJoedy McCreary
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah | Eston Parker/ISI Photos/GettyImages

Miami’s stumble in South Bend last week led the Hurricanes to tumble out of the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings. It might not be too long before they’re back in the first-round bye conversation.

Coach Mario Cristobal’s team shook off the hangover from its loss to Notre Dame, holding on to beat a pesky and motivated Duke team 36-25 on Saturday to get back to the form that previously propelled the Hurricanes to No. 1.

To be clear, Miami didn’t need a top-four seed — or the first-round bye that came with it — to reach the CFP championship game a year ago. But that’s a perk everyone in the Bowl Subdivision is chasing. Here’s how the Hurricanes (9-1, 7-0 ACC) can get their hands on it again.

How Miami gets back into the CFP’s top four

Miami coach Mario Cristobal
Miami coach Mario Cristobal | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Most importantly, the Hurricanes need to keep winning. They wrap up the regular season with two more home games and should be heavy favorites in both.

  • Nov. 21, Virginia Tech
  • Nov. 28, Boston College

The Hokies and Eagles entered Saturday's games with a combined record of 10-8. Neither was above .500 in ACC play, and neither has even come close to beating a team of Miami’s caliber. That cuts both ways: While neither opponent seems terribly formidable, but that also means little credit for beating them.

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Still, the biggest challenge for the Hurricanes might be not looking ahead to the ACC championship game — and a probable rematch with Wake Forest. Miami may have beaten the Demon Deacons 33-20 in Week 3, but they haven’t lost since. Wake Forest (9-1, 6-1) has reeled off seven straight wins and humiliated a previously ranked SMU team 49-7 on its home field. A second victory over the Demon Deacons ought to give Miami a bump.

But the Hurricanes could still use some help in the form of losses by the teams above them. Some help might come during Rivalry Week: Miami will be rooting hard for Auburn (No. 3 Alabama), Texas A&M (No. 6 Texas) and Southern Cal (No. 4 UCLA). While Alabama and No. 1 Georgia seem destined for a rematch in the SEC Championship Game, it’s doubtful that the loser will be punished severely enough to create an opening for Miami to climb.

There's one more reason for optimism: Leading receiver Malachi Toney, expected to miss the rest of the regular season after spraining his ankle in the days before the Notre Dame game, could be back for the postseason. CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said earlier in the week that "we only have one game to evaluate Miami without Malachi Toney, so we can only use that metric." Now the committee has two: Miami improved to 1-1 without him.

‘Canes returned to form against feisty Duke

Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr.
Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Don’t overlook how impressive this victory over Duke was. The Blue Devils (7-3, 4-3) had plenty to play for — starting with their grudge against Miami quarterback Darian Mensah.

A year ago, Mensah led Duke to an unlikely ACC title and said he would return to Durham for the 2026 season. Things changed in January, when on the final day the transfer portal was open, Mensah hopped in and signed with Miami. Duke took the unusual step of suing its former quarterback and the two sides eventually settled.

Facing his old team for the first time since that ugly divorce, Mensah was 30 of 41 for 382 yards with a touchdown. A week after they failed to rally from a 21-point deficit against the Fighting Irish, the Hurricanes never trailed, rolled up 532 total yards and held Duke to 341 — 84 below its average. The Blue Devils scored a touchdown in the final minute to make the final score a bit more respectable.

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