Alright, sit down, shut up, it’s time to plan your fantasy football draft. No more philosophical theories, no more time for cute little avant-garde strategies, wake the hell up; it is August 18, you are running out of time; oh god, who do I even pick in each round, please help.
Not to worry. Here at Oliver Fox Fantasy Football Consulting (OFFFC, might be too many Fs in one acronym) we are supplied with the latest in draft optimization technology. Round by round, we are going to go through and suggest some targets and hopefully get you a perfect draft. If you’ll just sign that agreement right there … yep, initial there and there and date here … okay, I am officially not liable if any of these suggestions are a total apocalyptic disaster, so we’re ready to go!
There is, of course, no way to know exactly who will be available in each round, and because I think 10-team, one-point PPR scoring leagues are objectively the best way to play, we are basing the available pool entirely on ESPN’s Average Draft Position for each round. If they are top 10 in ADP, that’s round one. Top 20, round two, you get it. I certainly disagree with some of these draft positions, but we need some kind of unifying principle lest I end up saying, “yeah, Bijan Robinson in round three would be an excellent value,” because who would that help? Enough delay; there are drafts today, and prepare yourself before leaping into the fray! (Bars)
Round 1: The Big Two or Amon-Ra St. Brown
I weirdly really like the first round this year and wouldn’t necessarily be mad with any of the top 10 players on the board. But I think Amon Ra St. Brown is being mispriced, currently going as the WR4 in ESPN drafts — I would probably rank him above both Puka Nacua and Jaxson Smith-Njigba and just behind Ja’Marr Chase given his unambiguous target volume, stable offensive situation and ridiculous catch numbers in one-point PPR leagues. If you’re playing in half PPR, St. Brown may fall behind Nacua and JSN, but as long as you get a whole point for a catch, I like St. Brown.
Beyond him, I’m targeting a top-two slot, and if you have the choice of your draft pick via some silly competition (my friends and I are doing a darts tournament), I would suggest looking for either the first or second pick since Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs really are on another level in the running back world. They are unambiguous cornerstones in the offense and could be in line for a positively goofy number of touches this year. And touches are what we want in fantasy football, because it is difficult to score fantasy points without the ball. In fact, I believe it’s impossible.
Round 2: Ashton Jeanty or Derrick Henry
If you couldn’t tell, I’m in on running backs this year as a premium position after several years of flirting with zero-RB strategies. There are just too few good ones to mess around with … like, a tight end or Rashee Rice or Josh Allen in this round. In a standard league, you are required to start at least two running backs every week, and I need backs that are guaranteed centrality in the offense, and by my calculations, those are Derrick Henry and Ashton Jeanty, with a smattering of Saquon Barkley if you want to deal with the Philadelphia Eagles experience.
James Cook III and Jeremiyah Love are the other running backs in this round, but I’m fading the risk that Cook could (and should) score many fewer touchdowns than he has been and the chance that Love may not have an iron grip on the backfield right away. He’s undoubtedly ultra-talented, but I’ve been burned by enough rookie running backs in my life — looking at you, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Just take the guys you know will play.
Round 3: Now, begrudgingly, draft a wide receiver; ideally A.J. Brown or George Pickens
Taking a peek at the ADP list will show the running back hellscape taking shape, and why I’m so focused on two RBs in the first two rounds. I have no interest in the Chase Brown experience, nor do I particularly want to deal with a Breece Hall injury or whatever Kenneth Walker III will be on the Kansas City Chiefs. Give me A.J. Brown or George Pickens, two players who could easily be the number one overall player in fantasy if their respective offenses hum like we think they can.
Pickens spent most of last season looking better than CeeDee Lamb (a player I’m completely out on as a first-round pick), and Brown is going from an infinitely frustrating passing offense in Philly to one that exploded off the line of scrimmage in New England. If he and Drake Maye can form a mind-meld? This is a next-level value.
Round 4: High-risk, high-reward upside wide receiver special
This round is hell in a handbasket. There is absolutely nobody past pick 30 who you will feel 100 percent confident drafting, but I’m personally investing in three options here: Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith and Emeka Egbuka. You could talk yourself into all three in five seconds, and you could talk yourself out of them in six. Nabers is coming off an ACL-tear and just recently started full-speed practices. When healthy, Nabers’ usage in the New York Giants’ offense has been WR1-level, but this is an experience you’re going to have to deal with, and I’m willing to.
Meanwhile, Smith and Egbuka just had their biggest target hogs (Brown and Mike Evans) walk out the door and feel like obvious leap candidates if you can get them here. Both bring a measure of risk that comes with a majorly jacked-up target volume, nor are we quite sure how each will be deployed in their new offenses. Again, they’re risks I’m willing to take; definitely more than I’m willing to engage with guys like Garrett Wilson on putrid offenses that can’t move the ball.
Round 5: Resist the run on quarterbacks and take another running back (or Davante Adams)
The 40-50 range is where I’m willing to mess around with some more RBs, particularly Bucky Irving, who has experienced a severe hype train derailment due to injuries last season. Travis Etienne Jr. also smells like value, given he might just be the unquestioned starter in New Orleans. I’m not worried about Alvin Kamara, who is well and truly cooked as an impact fantasy player.
Davante Adams is another interesting player here given his prolific touchdown totals. But don’t let that scare you off: these weren’t cheap, lucky touchdowns; they were manufactured and game-planned scores that I think are reproducible. I’m back in for Adams once again.
Round 6: The final round of great WRs and RBs
I know, this sounds crazy given you are using your sixth-round pick on a player that technically won’t be in your starting lineup in Week 1, but hear me out! I think Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin and Jameson Williams are three elite players who could save your season when injuries come (and they always come) or be tasty trade pieces if you’re that kind of player. You could, of course, go for the Sam LaPorta or Joe Burrow route, but I think stacking recievers and waiting on TE and QB is the wave this year.
If you wound up with a QB or TE earlier because my other recommendations were gone and you went “ah, well Josh Allen is good,” then this is a great spot to make up ground. Also, I said I wouldn’t do this, but I wouldn’t mind reaching for Bhayshul Tuten or Luther Burden III here, two supremely hype players that would just be downright fun to have on your roster. I’m not scared by Burden’s injury.
Round 7: You may now take a QB (or a TE, but probably a QB)
Personally, I’m thinking I want to be the last person in my league to take both of these positions just because I feel like the value is much lower than usual. I am so down for Dak Prescott or Caleb Williams or even Matthew Stafford in a later round. I don’t think it would be crazy if one (or several) of these later-round QBs outscore the “top-tier” guys. Unless you get Josh Allen, I’m waiting forever for this position.
Meanwhile, I’m going full crazy mode and suggesting you target a Cleveland Browns player; yes, the very same Cleveland Browns. Harold Fannin Jr. is too athletic and electric for me to concern myself with his quarterback situation, which is about as bad as it could possibly be. Tucker Kraft could also be a league-winning piece if he is fully recovered from his injury, which we won’t know until he hits the field. I’m in, are you?
Round 8: Parker Washington or Mike Evans
The odds that Parker Washington or Mike Evans is actually available in your specific round eight are known only to the Gods, but those are two guys I think are being severely undervalued in epic offenses that absolutely need their services. Evans carries with him a horrifying injury history, but I am operated on the assumption that injuries are neither predictable nor controllable by the fantasy football public. Hold your nose and take Mike Evans.
Round 9: Uh … Rhamondre Stevenson? Jaylen Warren?
By round nine, your draft board is not going to look anything like the ADP said it would, so I’m really just here to provide frameworks about how to think. Running back depth is hyper-important for such an injured position, and while I can’t say for sure what the world will look like for Rhamondre Stevenson or Jaylen Warren in the Brave New World of 2026, this is about as good as you’re gonna get this late for RBs. I also am down for any and all WR dart throws at this point, which will be the majority of your late-round picks.
Round 10: Fill your biggest need, which (if you’ve been following this) is TE
Here are some tight ends that I’m fine with starting, who you can take here if available (I bet one of them is): George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Dalton Kincaid. I see very little difference between these players or much reason to expect they won’t just all score 8.5 points per game and call it a season. You’re chasing past performance with Kittle, Andrews and Kelce, but it’s not as bad a strategy as it looks. Ferguson has to deal with two major target hogs on his team, but has a great QB who trusts him. Likely and Kincaid I got nothing but speculative hope for, but speculative hope can win leagues.
Later Rounds: Sleepers to target (and one rule to live by)
There are infinite moderately interesting players you could draft in the later rounds, like Wandale Robinson or RJ Harvey or rookies like Makai Lemon and KC Concepcion. You could go after Chris Godwin and Hunter Henry and bank that their quarterbacks love them enough to supply targets. I wouldn’t fault anyone for drafting Rashid Shaheed or Terrance Ferguson either, because what’s the worst that could happen?
One rule I will impress upon everyone is that you must not (seriously, do not) stray from: Kicker and defense in the last two rounds. You may think that drafting Brandon Aubrey in the 10th round or the Texans defense in the 11th is a good idea. It’s not; defenses and kickers are nearly as projectable as other positions, and they are week-to-week replaceable since nobody rosters more than one at a time. You are robbing yourself of value if you mess this up. If you only take one thing away, make it this. And Mike Evans.
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