Early MLB offseason rumors we’re not buying for a second

The 2025 MLB season hasn't even ended yet; we still have a whole World Series to play, as you may have heard. But if you thought that would stop the Hot Stove from catching fire already, well, you must be new here — it's never too early to get a head start on the rumor mill, especially not now that 28 teams have already started preparing for what should be a fascinating offseason.

Already, speculation is running rampant about which free agents might be signing where (and for how much money) as well as which stars might be put on the trade block. Some of that speculation has plenty of substance behind it (Kyle Tucker is going to get paid, news at 11.) Some of it, though ... well, let's just say you need to be able to separate fact from fabulation this time of year.

Luckily, we're here to help. Below we've assembled four narratives that have already become all too popular among fans and media, despite the fact that they don't seem to pass the smell test. Let's get to it.

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Bogus offseason narrative No. 1: The Tigers are trading Tarik Skubal

Don't get too excited, Detroit Tigers fans: This is far from a vote of confidence in Scott Harris, or a prediction that Skubal is going to be around beyond next season. But the idea that the Tigers are going to move him this winter, a full year before he's set to become a free agent, has simply never passed the smell test.

Start with the obvious: Detroit is squarely in its contention window, coming off consecutive ALDS appearances, and contending becomes a whole lot harder without arguably the best pitcher on the planet. Then add to that the fact that the Tigers don't have to move him this winter in order to get a haul in return; he might not be quite as valuable at the trade deadline, but he'll still command a king's ransom, and the difference in return isn't enough to offset the benefit of waiting a few months to see how both extension talks and the start of the 2026 season proceed.

But let's say the Tigers ignore all of that and decide they want to explore trading Skubal now anyway. You still run into a seemingly unsolvable problem: Skubal is worth more to the Tigers than he is to other teams as a one-year rental, and nothing any of those teams might reasonably offer would make Detroit feel like they're getting appropriate value in return.

No matter how great Skubal is, there's a limit to what any front office is going to be willing to give up for him when they know he's bound to hit the open market next winter. Detroit reportedly wants "two top-level starting pitchers and a position player prospect" in any deal for its foundational star; how many teams even have that on offer, and how many of those teams would be willing to give it up for one year of a player?

Bogus offseason narrative No. 2: The Dodgers are serious about Kyle Tucker

It was only a matter of time before the rumors began. Tucker is far and away the best free agent on the market this offseason, and he figures to ask for a contract north of $400 million. To get that kind of money, you're going to need a bidding war — and in order to start a bidding war, you're going to need the media on your side.

So of course the corpse of the Cubs' season was hardly cold when the first headline dropped, a Jon Heyman column claiming that none other than the Los Angeles Dodgers had their sights set on Tucker. And hey: Maybe that's true. L.A. could use another corner outfield bopper after the failed Michael Conforto experiment, in as much as L.A. "needs" anything. You can never count the Dodgers out of any sweepstakes, after all.

But we know that Andrew Friedman and Co. were never seriously interested in Juan Soto last offseason, remaining on the periphery throughout. What's more likely: That Los Angeles has had a change of heart about a substantively worse and older player, or that Tucker's agent has leaked a story to a friendly columnist in hopes of stoking demand around his star client? There are simply too many other ways for the Dodgers to spend their money this winter; I'm not buying this one.

Bogus offseason narrative No. 3: The Yankees prefer Cody Bellinger to Tucker

Another potential suitor for Tucker: the New York Yankees who have two outfielders heading to free agency and even more desperation to finally get over the hump after an ugly ALDS exit against the Toronto Blue Jays. But in recent days, some reporting to the contrary has bubbled up, suggesting that the Yankees would rather spend (significantly) less money on a reunion with Cody Bellinger than make a real run at signing Tucker.

It makes a certain sense, if viewed from the right angle. Bellinger will save New York likely $200 million or so over the life of the two contracts, he just enjoyed a very good season in the Bronx and he has the ability to play center field — no small thing with Trent Grisham also a free agent this winter. And sure, from a fit perspective, he might be a littlel bit cleaner than Tucker.

But at a certain point, you have to stop caring so much about fit and start caring more about simply acquiring the better baseball player. That's a lesson the Yankees have yet to learn, one that's cost them in the postseason over the last few years. And the better baseball player is inarguably Tucker, one of the 10 or so best hitters in the sport for years now despite how poorly his season with the Cubs ended. New York needs to be all in with Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole not getting any younger; pairing Judge and Tucker would be the best possible insurance against an October swoon, and the Steinbrenner family should be more than willing to spend the money to make it happen.

Will they? Only time will tell. But remember that the Yankees were among the teams most in on acquiring Tucker when the Houston Astros made him available last winter. Clearly they agree with my evaluation of him, and they wouldn't have been trading for him without any interest in either handing him an extension or re-signing him when he became a free agent. Given how this season ended, I don't think the Yankees will be taking the cost-effective route this time.

Bogus offseason narrative No. 4: Milwaukee is set on trading Freddy Peralta

From even before the 2025 season ended, it's been treated as something of a fait accompli that the Milwaukee Brewers would be moving on from Freddy Peralta this offseason. His $8 million club option for 2026 is an easy pick-up, but that's his final year of team control, and would the small-market Brew Crew really let him walk next winter for nothing rather than getting future value for him now? This is what the Brewers do, after all, as we saw with Corbin Burnes just a couple of years ago.

But the Peralta situation differs for a couple of key reasons. For starters, he won't be nearly as expensive as Burnes was in his final year of control: While Peralta has that affordable option, Burnes was in his final season of arbitration and was set to make some $15 million or so. There was also the matter of his second season of arbitration, and how badly that process in the winter of 2023 damaged his relationship with Milwaukee's front office.

As a refresher: The Brewers and Burnes filed contract numbers that were less than $1 million apart, but rather than finding a compromise with their best pitcher, Milwaukee opted to take him to an arbitration hearing. The way to win those hearings is to trash-talk your own player, downplaying his accomplishments in order to convince the arbitrator that he isn't as valuable as he says he is. As you might imagine, that left Burnes stung:

"Obviously, it's tough to hear," he told reporters after the arbitrator had ruled in the Brewers' favor. "It's tough to take. They're trying to do what they can to win a hearing. There's no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired] over the last couple weeks. There's really no way of getting around that."

Given how badly the relationship had frayed, it's no wonder the Brewers were so anxious to get rid him of the next winter rather than take things into his final season of team control. Peralta, on the other hand, seems to truly love Milwaukee, and the feeling is very much mutual. He's going to be very affordable, a price that won't hamstring the team's offseason plans, and they can always flip him at the trade deadline if it comes to that. For a team that has legit World Series hopes in 2026, why rush the process?