Tuesday afternoon marked the deadline by which 13 pending free agents who'd been extended the qualifying offer had to decide whether they would accept a one-year, $22 million deal to return to their previous team or decline and officially hit the market. Just 14 players had taken the QO since its institution back in 2012, but we got a whopping four this time around: Brewers righty Brandon Woodruff, Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham, Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga and Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres.
But nine other players on the list, including most of the very biggest fish in this free agent pool, said no, confident that they'll still cash in despite having draft penalties hung around their neck. Which teams are ready to throw caution to the wind, and where will these stars wind up? Here are our early offseason predictions.
Kyle Tucker
Landing spot: Toronto Blue Jays
Maybe I'm Charlie Brown thinking that this time I'll finally be able to kick the football, but it really does feel like things have changed in Toronto after their magical run to the World Series. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported on Tuesday that the Blue Jays are considered by other executives around the league to be the current favorite to land Tucker, and it's not hard to see why: The vibes are at an all-time high, and we know that money has never been an issue for this franchise.
If the Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs aren't willing to get into a heated bidding war, Toronto could finally land their big fish.
Kyle Schwarber
Landing spot: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are running out of runway to win a title with this current core, and it's awfully hard to imagine what the path forward will be if they don't retain Schwarber. Dave Dombrowski already more or less ruled out a major pitching addition, and Schwarber is an obvious fit in their lineup who also happens to be one of the leaders of this clubhouse. Schwarber's age and one-dimensional profile will keep his price in check, and Philly can't afford to lose this one.
Bo Bichette
Landing spot: Atlanta Braves
If the Blue Jays do in fact land Tucker, it might come at the cost of a homegrown star in Bichette — a bittersweet trade, but one Toronto would probably be fine with. The Braves figure to have plenty of money to spend, and shortstop is the one obvious place to spend it. The infield market is very thin beyond Bichette, and while Alex Anthopoulos also has pitching depth to worry about, this is a big splash well worth making. (Not to mention that Atlanta feels like a more compelling fit than other potential Bichette suitors like, say, the Detroit Tigers.)
Framber Valdez
Landing spot: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles were desperate to tell anyone who would listen at the GM Meetings that they're finally ready to spend under new owner David Rubenstein. A frontline starter is the obvious place to start with that newfound money, and Valdez is the sort of workhorse (he's cleared 175 innings in each of the last four seasons) this injury-plagued rotation so desperately needs. They'll have plenty of competition, but I think the other pitching-needy teams on the market could have other arms in mind.
Ranger Suarez
Landing spot: San Francisco Giants
Like, for example, San Francisco. The Giants could sure use another starter behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, and I think their desperation to get back to the postseason in 2026 makes them the best bet to go whole hog for someone like Suarez — whose shorter track record might scare some other suitors away. Plus, a ground-ball pitcher could do a lot worse than an infield including both Willy Adames and Matt Chapman.
Dylan Cease
Landing spot: Chicago Cubs
There's been chatter around Cease and the Cubs from pretty much the moment he balled out at Wrigley Field in Game 2 of the Wild Card series between San Diego and Chicago. It's not hard to see why: Jed Hoyer needs at least one starter this winter, and Cease has the best swing-and-miss stuff on the market.
Edwin Diaz
Landing spot: New York Mets
Paying full freight for a reliever doesn't feel like a very David Stearns thing to do, but paying for Diaz does feel like a very Steve Cohen thing to do (especially given the way 2025 ended). New York's bullpen was a constant source of anxiety even with Diaz in the fold last season; if he goes elsewhere, I'm not sure how they'll piece together a World Series-caliber unit for 2026. Plus, the Mets are the only team that won't need to cough up draft picks to sign Diaz, which could give them the inside track as other front offices hesitate to pay a closer into his mid-30s.
Michael King
Landing spot: New York Yankees
With Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt all set to start the 2026 season on the IL, New York needs to bolster its starting pitching depth. But they also have bigger fish to fry, like, for example, assembling a new starting outfield. King has ace upside when he's healthy, but his limited track record and recent injury concerns could keep him in New York's price range. Plus, King came up in the Yankees' system — he was the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade, remember — and could view a short-term stop in New York as the best way to rebuild his value and hit the market again after a strong season or two.
Zac Gallen
Landing spot: San Diego Padres
Gallen's a tough one to figure out, a Cy Young candidate not too long ago coming off a largely dreadful contract year. He perked up a bit toward the end of the 2025 campaign, giving hope for a rebound in 2026, but he still likely cost himself a chance at the megadeal he felt destined for while leading Arizona to the World Series two years ago. If he's looking for a one-year deal to rebuild his value, he could do a lot worse than the pitcher's paradise of San Diego, and the cash-strapped Padres could see him as a way to fill one of their multiple rotation holes without breaking the bank.