First Pitch: World Series dreams or nightmares? What each contender faces in October

September is here, giving MLB fans reason to start thinking about the postseason. Sure, we don't know exactly how the field will shape up, but we know most of the teams that will almost certainly be participating in this year's postseason.

With over five months of the regular season to look back at, we've come to learn certain strengths and weaknesses each contending team has. The contenders who are able to lean on their strengths and avoid having their weaknesses exposed will have better odds when it comes to winning the World Series.

With that in mind, let's take a look at why each team currently in a postseason spot at the beginning of play on Sept. 4 has a chance to win the World Series and what could hold these same teams back from accomplishing their ultimate goal.

What each MLB contender faces in October

1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Houston Astros
4. New York Yankees
5. Boston Red Sox
6. Seattle Mariners
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Chicago Cubs
11. San Diego Padres
12. New York Mets

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Toronto Blue Jays

Why the Blue Jays can win the World Series

The Toronto Blue Jays can flat-out rake, and there's no reason to believe that will change anytime soon. Let's take a look at some of their wRC+ figures since the start of July among those with at least 100 plate appearances.

Nine of the 10 Blue Jays position players with at least 100 plate appearances in a sample size that's over the span of two months now have a wRC+ of the league average of 100 or above. Springer and Bichette rank second and third among all qualified position players in this span, and Guerrero is tied with Aaron Judge for eighth. Is this good?

The pitching gets tougher in October, but Springer is playing as well as he has in years, Bichette is back in All-Star form, Guerrero is showing why he signed a contract worth $500 million, and Anthony Santander is expected to be back, by the way. This team can score runs in bunches, and when they're swinging the bats well, watch out.

Why the Blue Jays' fatal flaw could haunt them

While the Jays can really hit, can they protect a lead that their offense gives them? I trust most of the Jays' rotation to give five or six innings of serviceable baseball, but the bullpen will need to record some big outs in October. I'm not sure I trust anyone to do that. Toronto's 5.60 ERA in the second half speaks for itself. Here are some ERA figures in their bullpen since the All-Star break.

Tommy Nance has pitched well, but he made his season debut in July and isn't exactly a guy John Schneider should be leaning on in high-leverage spots. Mason Fluharty hasn't been bad, but he's in Triple-A. Seranthony Dominguez's ERA could be worse, but he's issued nine walks in 13.2 innings with Toronto, making him hard to trust in high-leverage.

Then we arrive at the four relievers the Jays expect a lot from, yet have gotten next to nothing from. Jeff Hoffman probably shouldn't close, but who should replace him? This bullpen has major improvements to make, and if guys like Hoffman, Brendon Little and Louis Varland in particular can't figure it out, this team is in trouble.

Detroit Tigers

Why the Tigers can win the World Series

The Detroit Tigers have the best pitcher on the planet, and if you are not a Tigers fan, your team doesn't. That can go a long way in October. The Tigers can push Skubal heavily and feel very good about winning in the days he can start.

The Tigers have gone 20-7 in Skubal's starts this season, and it isn't hard to see why. The southpaw leads the AL in ERA, FIP, WHIP, BB/9, K/9 and fWAR (I can go on but won't), and he ranks second in strikeouts and innings pitched. He's a workhorse, and a dominant one at that.

Having a pitcher who can realistically be expected to out-duel anyone multiple times in a given series is a huge advantage, and one that only the Tigers have.

Why the Tigers' fatal flaw could haunt them

What happens in the games Skubal doesn't start? The Tigers' 20-7 record in Skubal's starts is a very good one, but they're 61-53 in the games that he doesn't. They're still a good team, but Skubal is what elevates them from good to great. Having him available only two or three times at most in a seven-game series can come back to bite Detroit. Even if they were to win each of Skubal's three starts, they'd need to win one started by someone else in a best-of-seven.

Casey Mize was an All-Star, but he has a 6.53 ERA in his last nine starts. Jack Flaherty was an All-Star-caliber arm last season with the Tigers, but his 4.74 ERA is the 12th highest among qualified starting pitchers. Charlie Morton has an outstanding postseason track record, but it isn't 2017 anymore. Who are the Tigers supposed to lean on when Skubal isn't pitching?

The Red Sox have Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito after Garrett Crochet. The Yankees have Carlos Rodon after Max Fried. The Mariners have George Kirby and Logan Gilbert after Bryan Woo. The Blue Jays have Kevin Gausman after Shane Bieber. The Astros have Framber Valdez after Hunter Brown. Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty don't quite measure up, and that could cost them in the postseason, especially if they aren't winning every single one of Skubal's starts.

Houston Astros

Why the Astros can win the World Series

Hunter Brown isn't Tarik Skubal, but he'd probably be an AL Cy Young finalist if the season ended today. What separates the Houston Astros from the Tigers is that they have Brown and Framber Valdez leading their rotation. That's a one-two punch that nobody can really compete with, especially with Zack Wheeler out for the season.

Brown has established himself as one of the AL's best starting pitchers, a title Valdez has had for several years now. Both of these pitchers are armed with postseason experience. Even if they aren't Skubal, these are two clearly trustworthy arms that the Astros can and will lean on. Having an ace-caliber arm on the bump four or five times in a given seven-game series is, again, something no other team can really match.

Why the Astros' fatal flaw could haunt them

Josh Hader's injury was really crushing. The Astros have been, and likely will be, fine without Hader in the regular season, but the postseason is a whole other ballgame. Hader is expected to be back for the postseason, but nothing is certain, and even if he does come back, will he be the same Hader we all expect him to be? Even if he is, can he be used on consecutive days and/or for multiple innings in a given outing? It's not like he's dealing with a hamstring strain, he's out with a shoulder injury.

Hader was as dominant as any reliever in the American League before his injury, posting a 2.05 ERA in 48 appearances and converting 28 of his 29 save opportunities. The Astros went 42-6 in games he appeared in.

Bryan Abreu is an elite reliever who can handle the ninth inning if need be, but he isn't Hader, and if he's forced to close games, that puts more pressure on the other relievers. The Astros need Hader to be Hader in October, and it remains to be seen if we'll see him on the mound at all, let alone pitching like the superstar everyone expects.

New York Yankees

Why the Yankees can win the World Series

The Tigers have the best pitcher on the planet, but the New York Yankees have the best hitter in the world. Aaron Judge is on track to win his third MVP in the last four years, and this is the case almost solely because of his bat.

Judge has a 193 wRC+, meaning he's 93 percent better than league average offensively. Shohei Ohtani ranks second among all qualified position players with a 168 wRC+, meaning Judge has been 25 percent better than Ohtani offensively this season. Co-AL MVP candidate, Cal Raleigh, is at a 155 wRC+, making him 38 percent worse with the bat than Judge.

This isn't to say guys like Ohtani and Raleigh aren't elite - they obviously are - but it goes to show how much better Judge is than anyone else when at his best. If he's doing Aaron Judge things in October, the Yankees can beat anyone.

Why the Yankees' fatal flaw could haunt them

Will Aaron Judge be the all-world hitter he is in the regular season in October? I want to say yes, but there are a couple of reasons why I'm less confident in that happening.

First, as most know, Judge's postseason resume is far from stellar. In 58 career postseason games, Judge is slashing .205/.318/.450 with 16 home runs and 34 RBI. Perhaps most alarmingly, he's struck out 86 times in 262 plate appearances, a 32.8 percent clip. Judge's .768 postseason OPS is nearly 300 points lower than his regular season mark of 1.022. Judge's 32.8 percent strikeout rate is over five percent higher than his 27.6 percent mark in the regular season. Judge's .205 postseason batting average is nearly 90 points lower than his .292 mark in the regular season. Judge has gone from MVP-caliber to barely above-average in October. If he isn't the MVP version, why should anyone expect this year to be any different from others?

Second, Judge isn't 100 percent right now. A right elbow flexor strain forced him to land on the IL in late July, and he hasn't played an inning in the field since. His production at the plate has also dipped upon his return, as his .891 OPS (well below his pre-injury mark of 1.160) would suggest. He's been better lately, to his credit, but he hasn't exactly hit like the MVP we all know and love.

Again, if Judge isn't Judge, I'm not sold the Yankees will hit enough to win, as we've seen several times over the years.

Boston Red Sox

Why the Red Sox can win the World Series

Is it fair to say that Garrett Crochet has exceeded expectations with the Boston Red Sox so far? I mean, everyone knew he had the ability to be one of the best pitchers in the game, but not only is he putting up ridiculous numbers, but he's been one of the league's most consistent workhorses. He's leading the league in innings pitched, for crying out loud. Having Crochet take the ball in Game 1 of any postseason series is huge, but what makes the Red Sox stand out is the guys they have behind Crochet.

I never thought I'd say this, but the Red Sox might be the team best positioned to win a Wild Card series because of their rotation. Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito might be the best trio in the league. They're at the very least the best-performing trio in the AL right now.

Not only have these three pitchers ranked in the top seven in ERA since mid-June, but they're all in the top five in innings. They've taken the ball every fifth day and done just about nothing but dominate. It's been nearly three months of this, why can't we see it continue into October?

Why the Red Sox's fatal flaw could haunt them

How many teams in MLB history have won the World Series without their best player? The 2021 Atlanta Braves are the exception, not the rule. The Red Sox traded Rafael Devers, their best hitter, away in mid-June. They've done remarkably well since, mostly due to Roman Anthony's emergence. Well, Anthony is out for several weeks with an oblique injury, and who knows when he'll be back?

Anthony began his career just 5-for-44 at the plate. Here's how he's matched up against qualified AL position players since.

Anthony is expected to be sidelined for 4-for-6 weeks with his injury. This could have him back by the end of the regular season if everything goes well, but he could also be out until potentially the ALCS if he needs six full weeks to recover. Can the Red Sox get to the ALCS without Anthony? Even if he comes back earlier, can he perform like the superstar he was pre-injury? If not, can we really expect the Red Sox to win?

Seattle Mariners

Why the Mariners can win the World Series

I can't believe I'm going to say this, but the Seattle Mariners can win the World Series by outslugging the competition. For years, offense has been what's held Seattle back, but now, the Mariners are a team that's very capable of outscoring their opponent, even if they haven't done that much lately.

Seattle has four players with at least 23 home runs including Cal Raleigh, MLB's home run leader with 51 round-trippers. This list doesn't even include Eugenio Suarez (42 total HR) or Josh Naylor (16 HR), who were acquired at the trade deadline.

Stringing hits together against elite pitching is difficult, making home runs even more valuable in October than they are in the regular season. The Mariners rank third in the majors in home runs despite only having Suarez and Naylor for a little over a month. They have as much power as any team, and are primed to use that to their advantage in the playoffs.

Why the Mariners' fatal flaw could haunt them

The Mariners are currently the AL's third Wild Card team, and if they make it to the postseason, they'll likely be in that third Wild Card spot. This outcome means that the Mariners would have to play the Wild Card series on the road, and they'd almost certainly cede home-field advantage in every series they play. For the 2025 Mariners, this could be a major issue.

Seattle has gone 32-40 on the road this season, a stark contrast from their 41-27 record at T-Mobile Park. What really sticks out, though, is how their starting pitchers perform at home and on the road.

T-Mobile Park is as pitcher-friendly a park as there is in the game, so it'd make sense for Mariners pitchers' ERAs to be lower at home than on the road. These differences are ridiculous, though. Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and George Kirby go from All-Stars at home to unusable on the road. Bryan Woo's road ERA isn't horrible, but it's over a run higher than his mark at home. Who, outside of Woo, can the Mariners trust to pitch away from home?

Considering the number of road games they're likely to play, this Mariners team that's stacked on paper could be headed for an early exit if they can even make it to the playoffs because of their inability to pitch well on the road.

Milwaukee Brewers

Why the Brewers can win the World Series

As a small-market team, the Milwaukee Brewers have to be ahead of the curve constantly and find ways to win. Considering they currently hold MLB's best record, it's safe to say they've done that. They've been able to win at such a high clip because of their base running.

The Brewers are second in the majors in runs scored despite ranking 19th in home runs. This means that they get on base and capitalize on their opportunities. Again, they've done this largely because of their base running.

The Brewers have the second-most stolen bases in the majors, and the most in the National League. As impressive as that is, their ability to run the bases well, even without stealing, is what sets them apart from the rest of the field.

Milwaukee's 14 Baserunning Runs per Baseball Savant not only leads the majors, but is five runs better than the second-place team. This essentially means that the Brewers have scored an estimated 14 runs because of their base running, five more than the second-best team in the majors. Another area they've excelled in is knowing when to take the extra base. They've been thrown out a total of four times while attempting to take the extra base, the fewest in the majors. This is particularly impressive when they rank fourth in successful advances with 31. They're aggressive, but almost always successful when taking an extra base.

Running the bases well isn't as glamorous as hitting home runs, but it's worked wonders for Milwaukee.

Why the Brewers' fatal flaw can haunt them

Running the bases well is a great thing, but how many base runners will the Brewers have? It's one thing to hit a bunch of singles consecutively in the regular season, but as mentioned above, doing so is very difficult against elite pitching in October. Hitting home runs is the most efficient way to score runs, and it's also one of the few weaknesses this Brewers team has.

Milwaukee ranks 19th in home runs and second-worst among all NL playoff teams. There's a reason why many were clamoring for the team to acquire a slugger like Eugenio Suarez. They have some home run hitters like Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio and William Contreras, but is that enough?

Last season, the Brewers scored just 11 runs in three postseason games against the New York Mets, six of which were driven in by home runs. This goes to show just how hard it is to string hits together against good teams.

Philadelphia Phillies

Why the Phillies can win the World Series

The postseason is a time for stars to emerge, and the Philadelphia Phillies are littered with star power. Kyle Schwarber is a legitimate NL MVP candidate, and he's hit a league-leading 49 home runs. Trea Turner is not only leading the National League in batting, but he's also leading the league in fWAR. Bryce Harper has missed some time due to injury, but he still has 23 home runs and a 134 wRC+ in 112 games. This is just on the batting side.

Jhoan Duran's stuff is as good as it gets, and he gives the Phillies the lockdown closer they've lacked. The rotation, even without Zack Wheeler, is still quite good, headlined by likely NL Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez, who has a sub-3.00 ERA this season and has an outstanding postseason track record.

If the stars play like stars, this team can beat anybody.

Why the Phillies' fatal flaw can haunt them

Turner, Schwarber and Harper have been one of, if not the best position player trio in the game this season, but who else is there in the lineup? The Phillies have nine players who have recorded at least 300 plate appearances this season, and only five of them have a wRC+ above the league average of 100.

Turner, Schwarber and Harper are three of them, but it's bleak after that. Brandon Marsh has a 107 wRC+, good for fourth on the team, and J.T. Realmuto has a 101 wRC+, good for fifth. That's it when it comes to league-average hitters. Guys like Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have some upside, and Harrison Bader has been great in his short time with Philadelphia, but do they have enough firepower to score enough runs?

I believe in Turner, Schwarber and Harper to do their thing, but I have little faith in anyone else stepping up. If the Phillies can't get contributions from anyone else, it's hard to envision them going on the run everyone hopes they go on.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Why the Dodgers can win the World Series

Who can stop this Los Angeles Dodgers lineup? Here's a look at where the Dodgers rank in some key metrics.

Mookie Betts has had a down year, Freddie Freeman was mired in a prolonged slump for a while, Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman have both missed significant time with injuries, and yet, the Dodgers are as potent offensively as any team in the National League.

Shohei Ohtani has done Shohei Ohtani things, but what makes the Dodgers frightening is that Andy Pages has broken out and Max Muncy has looked like one of the game's best hitters since putting on glasses. We know that guys like Ohtani, Freeman, Will Smith and even Betts will almost certainly step up in October, but having guys like Pages and Muncy playing like All-Stars makes this lineup a different beast. There're few, if any, weak spots, and that, in addition to the star power that they have, makes them a frightening opponent.

Why the Dodgers' fatal flaw can haunt them

Remember when everyone thought that the Dodgers had built a super-bullpen in the offseason? Well, thanks to injuries, lack of consistent length from their starters and underperformance from some of their veterans, the Dodgers' 4.21 bullpen ERA is good for 20th in the majors. ERA isn't everything, particularly when discussing relievers, but the only two teams currently in playoff spots have higher bullpen ERAs are the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees. Both the Phillies and Yankees made major bullpen additions, while the Dodgers' lone major addition, Brock Stewart, has made just four appearances with the team and is currently injured.

Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, two major offseason additions, have really struggled. Stewart, Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia are currently injured. The pieces are there for the Dodgers' bullpen to dominate, but their relievers have been injured and inconsistent.

The lineup is great and the rotation is too when healthy, but if they can't protect late leads, it'll be tough for them to repeat.

Chicago Cubs

Why the Cubs can win the World Series

The Chicago Cubs led the NL Central division for practically the entire first half, and it wasn't by accident. Their offense was performing at an elite level. They've lost their division lead largely because their offense has struggled in the second half.

What happened here? The Cubs' offense went from one of the best in the game in the first half to a bottom-ten offense in the second half, and I'm really not sure why. Kyle Tucker's injury clearly impacted him, but why are guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch all having awful second halves?

If the Cubs can figure the offense thing out, they're going to be very good. If they can't, an early exit might be brewing.

Why the Cubs' fatal flaw can haunt them

I'm just not a believer in this Cubs' rotation. Jed Hoyer had a chance to go all-in at the trade deadline and land the Cubs an ace, but he failed to do so. I understand that prices were enormous and he was right not to meet some of them, but there's no disputing that this rotation has its share of question marks.

Shota Imanaga has been nothing but stellar as the ace, but with Justin Steele out, who is behind him? Matthew Boyd had an All-Star first half, but he has a 4.34 ERA in the second half. Cade Horton has been great, but he's already blown past his previous career-high in innings, just how much will he have in the tank in October? Jameson Taillon isn't bad when healthy, but he's missed time due to injury this season, and he's nothing more than a No. 4 starter in a good postseason rotation.

When comparing this rotation to others in the National League, it's hard to see how the Cubs measure up. They're likely going to have to outslug their opponent, which is something they can do, but have struggled to do lately.

San Diego Padres

Why the Padres can win the World Series

You know the answer, right? The San Diego Padres upgraded the best bullpen in the majors at the trade deadline by acquiring Mason Miller in a deal with the Athletics. Giving up Leo De Vries for a reliever could come back to haunt them in 2027-ish, but for now, the Padres are benefiting from having Miller in their bullpen.

The dynamic right-hander has allowed just two runs on six hits in 12 innings of work across 12 appearances with San Diego operating as the team's primary set-up man. Both of the runs he allowed came in just his second outing with the team. He's been dominant of late, even pitching an immaculate inning using all sliders. I'm not kidding.

Adding Miller to a unit already consisting of Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada is unfair. Yes, losing Jason Adam for the season hurts, but Padres fans can still be rather comfortable if their team is leading after five or six innings in just about any given postseason game, knowing how deep and dominant their bullpen is.

Why the Padres' fatal flaw can haunt them

Are we sure the Padres will have enough late leads to protect? Adam's injury might not appear massive at first glance because of their loaded bullpen, but this just means that their starting rotation has an extra inning to cover most nights. Are they capable of doing that?

Michael King has had a great year when healthy, but he's been limited to just 11 starts this season and he's currently on the IL, so who knows how impactful he'll be in October? Nick Pivetta has had a breakout year, but can he do it when the lights are brightest? Dylan Cease finished fourth in the NL Cy Young balloting last season and 2nd in 2022, but he has a 4.81 ERA this season. What can he do in October? Yu Darvish is not close to the Yu Darvish of old, either.

I believe in the bullpen's ability to shut games down, but it's hard to believe in the rotation's ability to give them late leads to protect. As good as their bullpen is, there's only so much they can do if the starters can't do their part.

New York Mets

Why the Mets can win the World Series

The New York Mets have nine players with at least 200 plate appearances this season. Here's a look at their wRC+ figures.

All nine of these players have been above league-average offensively, and seven of the nine have been over 20 percent better than league average. This lineup, when it's healthy, is as potent and as deep as any in the league.

A lot of the focus is on guys like Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, and rightfully so, but the Mets are really tough to beat when they're getting contributions from their role players. With how well guys like Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo have been playing lately in addition to the production they've been getting from their superstars, there's every reason to believe this team can simply outscore their competition.

Why the Mets' fatal flaw can haunt them

Edwin Diaz has been one of the best relievers in the game this season, but it's hardly noticeable because he's barely been used. Diaz has just two saves since the start of August, an impossibly low number. He hasn't even blown a save opportunity either, he simply hasn't had any.

Some of this has to do with the Mets earning several wins by blowing out their opponent, but a large part of it also has to do with the rotation and bullpen blowing leads before they can even get it to Diaz. The Mets thought they had built one of the league's best bullpens at the trade deadline, but that hasn't been close to the truth.

Ryan Helsley has been practically unusable since the Mets acquired him, Tyler Rogers has allowed a ton of hits during his short Mets stint, and even Gregory Soto has had a couple of clunkers lately. These three underperforming (albeit to varying degrees) combined with Ryne Stanek pitching like a guy on DFA watch and Reed Garrett missing time due to injury, have caused this bullpen to be an absolute mess.

I do believe that this bullpen is extremely talented and can figure it out, but if the Mets can't give Diaz late leads to work with, how are they going to win postseason games?