The Washington Nationals made the shocking decision to fire both GM Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez after getting swept by the Boston Red Sox over the weekend. I'm not going to say a change wasn't justified — I absolutely believe it was — but I will say that the timing of it, with the MLB Draft just a week away and the trade deadline less than a month away, was strange. And we could see that strange timing have a big effect on how the draft shakes out.
The Nationals hold the No. 1 pick, giving them an opportunity to select any prospect they'd like. Keith Law's latest mock draft for The Athletic ($) has them potentially changing course from where they previously were headed, selecting LSU ace Kade Anderson No. 1 overall over high-school infielder Ethan Holliday.
"As far as I can tell, the Nats are still working with a list of six to seven candidates for this pick, although I get the sense it’s more likely to be one of Anderson, Aiva Arquette or Ethan Holliday than one of the others (Liam Doyle, Jamie Arnold, Eli Willits, maybe Seth Hernandez)," Law wrote.
"Given the ill-timed firing — or scapegoating — of GM Mike Rizzo on Sunday, I think it’s less likely they take Holliday or Hernandez than it was previously. The change in leadership might just make them more likely to take a college player who’s more likely to yield a quicker return, and fortunately this year there are several such college guys who’d be strong picks here, including Anderson, who didn’t so much help himself with his College World Series performance as underline what he’d already shown,"
Selecting Anderson wouldn't be bad. In fact, making that selection could easily be justified following his dominant College World Series performance. However, the reason Law believes the Nationals will select Anderson is what's eye-opening.
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Nationals shake-up could decide how beginning of MLB Draft unfolds
Holliday has been at the top of mock drafts virtually all season long, but he's also coming out of high school. This means he'll need at least a couple of years to prove himself in the Minor Leagues before he might be ready to thrive at the MLB level. As we saw with his brother, Jackson, it might take even longer than that. Taking Anderson, though, could bring the Nationals almost immediate returns.
No, he won't go straight to the Majors, but given his years of collegiate experience, he might not need nearly as much time on the farm as a guy like Holliday. Paul Skenes, the first college pitcher taken in the 2023 MLB Draft, was in the Majors by May of 2024. Chase Burns, the first college pitcher taken in the 2024 MLB Draft, was in the Majors by June of 2025. Would it be shocking to see Anderson, the first college pitcher taken in the 2025 MLB Draft, get his first call-up to the show by the middle of the 2026 season? Not at all, and for a Nationals team starved for pitching behind MacKenzie Gore, the lefty could make even more sense.
He might not have the ceiling that a guy like Holliday does, but his floor as a collegiate prospect is much higher, and it shouldn't take him nearly as long to progress through the system. With whoever becomes the team's new GM looking to make a statement, selecting a player who can make them look very good, very quickly would be a smart call.
This decision would be a tough one for Holliday, though.
A Rockies homecoming would be less than ideal for Ethan Holliday's development
Law's mock draft has Holliday slipping down to the Colorado Rockies at No. 4 overall. This development would make sense, as if the Nationals don't take him, it's unlikely that the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners, two teams whose recent track records suggest they're likely to go the college route with their first-round selections, take him. It'd be cool to see Ethan end up with the same Rockies organization that his father, Matt, thrived with, but the 2025 Rockies are not the 2007 Rockies. They are a dumpster fire.
The Nationals have been far from great when it comes to developing talent, but they do have some success stories and a fantastic young core for Holliday to be surrounded by, led by James Wood and C.J. Abrams. Who do the Rockies have? Ezequiel Tovar? Even Brenton Doyle has taken a massive step back after last season's breakout.
Altitude will help, but as we've seen with countless Rockies youngsters in recent memory, it isn't the end-all, be-all. Holliday should not want to end up in Colorado, but the Nationals' shake-up could result in him falling right into the Rockies' lap.