Speaking objectively and candidly, the only National League playoff spot left up for grabs is the final Wild Card berth. The Brewers and Dodgers would need monumental collapses to lose their strangehold on the NL Central and West, respectively, and while the East could still go either way, both the Braves and Phillies have positioned themselves for deep playoff runs regardless of who takes the divisional crown.
Whoever loses out on the NL East is at least on pace to qualify as a Wild Card team, and they may even land a home series. The Cubs currently hold the National League’s No. 4 seed, and it’d take a Mets-like September for them to miss out on the postseason.
But what about that sixth seed? Things could get extremely interesting over the season’s final five weeks, as the Padres currently hold the final Wild Card spot. By no means are they the heavyweight favorites, though.
For the sake of ease, we’re limiting our list to the teams within four games of a Wild Card spot entering play on Monday, Aug. 24. It’s safe to say that none of the Rockies, Giants or Mets have a shot at the postseason. On the other side of the coin, the Cardinals are 5.5 back, which is incredibly difficult to overcome this late in the year
That leaves us with five teams: the Cubs, Phillies, Padres, Diamondbacks and Marlins.
NL Wild Card standings
Team | Games back |
|---|---|
Chicago Cubs | +4.0 |
Philadelphia Phillies | +2.0 |
San Diego Padres | - |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 2.0 |
Miami Marlins | 4.0 |
It’s been business as usual for the Cubs and Phillies of late, and we’re reluctant to bet against the Padres. Despite underwhelming seasons from the once-heralded trio of Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres keep finding ways to win — and to Tatis’ credit, he’s been phenomenal in the second half. San Diego entered Monday with a two-game lead over Arizona, which is working through the Ketel Marte saga right now.
Although the Marlins are only four games back, that’s nonetheless an incredibly difficult number to surpass this late in the season. They’re paying the cost for that dreadful July, but at least Dolphins fans have an escape in September.
NL Wild Card standings based on record since the trade deadline
Team | Record since Aug. 3 |
|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies | 14-5 |
San Diego Padres | 13-6 |
Chicago Cubs | 12-7 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 10-9 |
Miami Marlins | 9-9 |
This is really a tale of two standings. On the one hand, you have the Cubs, Phillies and Padres getting stronger as we hit the stretch run of this season. Philly has turned on the jets as both Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter have stabilized the back of the rotation, with Bryson Stott taking swimmingly to third base and Luis Arraez lengthening the lineup meaningfully. Chicago has weathered the seemingly never-ending storm of pitching injuries in large part thanks to NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong and a devastating lineup. San Diego, meanwhile, finally looks like the contender it expected to be all along now that Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and others are finally hitting (and Casey Mize, Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler have stopped the rotation bleeding).
And then, on the other, you have the D-backs and Marlins trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time. Both teams largely stood pat at the deadline — heck, Miami actually sold, flipping catcher Liam Hicks to the Tampa Bay Rays. And both are now facing the consequences of that inaction, as imperfect rosters get exposed over a marathon season. There's still time to turn the tide, of course; but right now, the NL playoff picture is getting more and more set in stone.
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