With the calendar now flipped to September, we have a really good idea which teams will participate in the 2025 MLB postseason. In fact, I'd go as far as to say I can guarantee 10 of the teams currently in postseason positioning at the beginning of play on Thursday, Sept. 11, are locks to get in, with only the New York Mets and Seattle Mariners as the lone exceptions.
While the field is mostly set, seeding is far from it. As MLB fans know all too well, matchups and seeding play a huge role in dictating how far teams go. Every win matters, and that's what makes mistakes magnified. Offseason mistakes are one thing - you have no idea how the season is going to play out.
Mistakes made in-season, though, should be scrutinized arguably more than the moves made in the winter. With that in mind, here are the moves each playoff team should regret, knowing they've cost them at least a game, and in many cases more.
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Toronto Blue Jays
Biggest in-season mistake: Louis Varland trade
This has been a magical season for the Toronto Blue Jays, as their 83-61 record, the best mark in the AL, would suggest. They have a 3.0 game lead in the AL East and could easily wind up with home-field advantage through the ALCS if they finish strongly. With that being said, while just about everything has gone right for Toronto, the Louis Varland trade has not.
Toronto acquired Varland from the Minnesota Twins at the trade deadline, expecting him to play a key late-inning role for the team, something they desperately needed. He had a 2.02 ERA in 51 appearances with fantastic underlying metrics pre-trade, and in his 17 appearances with the Jays, he's posted a 6.75 ERA, allowing 12 runs in 16.0 innings of work. He's allowed at least one earned run in nine of his 17 appearances with Toronto.
Toronto's bullpen was leaking oil pre-deadline, which is why Varland was acquired. If he isn't the guy he was in Minnesota down the stretch and in October, the Jays could be in big trouble.
Detroit Tigers
Biggest in-season mistake: Chris Paddack trade
The Detroit Tigers roster MLB's best starting pitcher, Tarik Skubal, but the starters they have behind him leave a lot to be desired. Given that, Tigers fans hoped Scott Harris would address the rotation in a meaningful way. He did address the rotation, but he did so with 41-year-old Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack. Why?
The Morton deal I could understand somewhat. He was pitching well pre-deadline and has an outstanding postseason track record. The Paddack deal, however, made no sense. He had a 4.95 ERA with the Twins in 21 starts, and hadn't really been a viable option to turn to since his rookie year in 2019. Trading for him rather than an actual difference-maker, even if it required more prospect capital, was really hard to understand.
Sure enough, Paddack had a 5.40 ERA in six starts with the Tigers before being moved to the bullpen in early September. There's a good chance he'll be left off Detroit's postseason roster and/or DFA'd sometime in the not-too-distant future. This was a waste, and the Tigers could've made a move that, well, wasn't.
Houston Astros
Biggest in-season mistake: Not adding more starting pitching
The Houston Astros have been ravaged by injuries more than just about any other team, which made their trade deadline approach rather confusing. They acquired Carlos Correa and Ramon Urias to give them cover at third base following Isaac Paredes' injury, and acquired Jesus Sanchez, filling a glaring hole in the outfield, but they didn't do anything on the pitching front. In fact, they gave up Ryan Gusto to acquire Sanchez.
They were as healthy as they had been, perhaps all season, around the trade deadline, but given the rotation's injury history, they had to do at least something to bolster that part of the roster. They were constantly linked to Dylan Cease, an erratic but durable starting pitcher, and one who would've made a lot of sense as their No. 3 starter.
Since the deadline, the Astros have lost Spencer Arrighetti and potentially Luis Garcia to injuries. The Astros are set at the top of their rotation with Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, but they needed to do more to address the rest of the staff. Failing to do so could cost them the division, and potentially a playoff spot altogether.
New York Yankees
Biggest in-season mistake: Sticking with Anthony Volpe
If there's one thing New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone is good at, it's sticking up for his players. With that being said, there has to be a line drawn somewhere. Boone has to be more willing to make adjustments when things simply aren't working. His reluctance to keep Devin Williams out of high-leverage spots has proven to be costly on numerous occasions. His reluctance to keep Paul Goldschmidt out of the lineup against right-handers was a problem. One thing Boone has yet to address, though, is Anthony Volpe. He, for some reason, is still the clear-cut starter at shortstop.
While Volpe hadn't quite lived up to expectations offensively in the past, he was, at least, a Gold Glove-caliber defender in each of his first two big league seasons. This season, however, he ranks in the third percentile in OAA per Baseball Savant, and he leads the AL with 19 errors, making him one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game. If he had taken a step forward offensively, perhaps this would be easier to brush off, but he's in the midst of his worst season in that department as well. In fact, he's been one of the worst hitters in the game when going by wRC+.
Rank | Player | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|
141 | Anthony Volpe | 81 |
142 | Michael Harris II | 78 |
143 | Luis Rengifo | 76 |
144 | Brenton Doyle | 73 |
145 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | 70 |
146 | Joey Ortiz | 66 |
Volpe ranks 141st out of the 146 qualified position players in wRC+ overall, and things are only getting worse for him. Volpe has just nine hits in his last 72 at-bats (.125 BA) and two hits in his last 21 at-bats with 11 strikeouts. He's been getting booed at Yankee Stadium amidst his struggles.
I'd understand sticking with Volpe if he had a great offensive track record, but he does not. I'd understand sticking with Volpe if the Yankees didn't have a viable replacement, as was the case in the first half, but Jose Caballero, a capable starter, is on the team now. There's just no justifying sticking with Volpe this long, and while Boone was finally willing to sit Volpe for just the fourth time all season, his track record suggests he'll be back out there on most nights the rest of the way.
Boston Red Sox
Biggest in-season mistake: Delaying Roman Anthony's call-up
Not much has gone wrong for the Boston Red Sox, a team that's actually gotten better since trading its best hitter, Rafael Devers, but I think we can officially call the team out for delaying Roman Anthony's call-up.
Anthony, MLB's top prospect, played in 58 Triple-A games this season prior to his early-June call-up, a high number, especially when considering he played in 35 games at that level in 2024 and had done nothing but tear the cover off the ball. Sure enough, after a bit of a lackluster start, Anthony has performed at a star level, slashing .292/.396/.463 with eight home runs and 32 RBI in 71 big league games. An argument can be made that he's Boston's best player already at age 21, which is pretty unfathomable.
Perhaps the Red Sox got the timing perfectly right, but I believe Anthony was ready far earlier than he was called up. He could've helped lead the Red Sox to at least a couple of more wins. Their reluctance to give him a look earlier than they did could end up being what costs them the division or even the top Wild Card spot in the AL.
Seattle Mariners
Biggest in-season mistake: The Leody Taveras experiment
The Seattle Mariners haven't made many decisions that I'd deem major mistakes, but the Leody Taveras experiment is one that they'd like to forget. Seattle claimed Taveras off waivers in early May, and he was DFA'd a little over a month later. The 28 games he appeared in went that poorly.
The 27-year-old slashed .174/.198/.272 with two home runs and nine RBI overall. He was worth -1.0 fWAR, a shocking number considering he had fewer than 100 plate appearances. It goes to show just how poorly he played in Seattle.
Taking a chance on Taveras, once a usable outfielder, wasn't the worst idea in the world, especially since the Mariners were dealing with injuries in their outfield, but it couldn't have played out much worse. For a Mariners team that could end up missing the playoffs by a game, playing Taveras for a month, even if they didn't have a better alternative, could prove to be costly.
Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest in-season mistake: Failing to acquire a power bat
Not much has gone wrong for the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that, seemingly out of nowhere, has the best record in baseball. With that being said, it's hard not to notice one glaring flaw on their roster: a lack of power.
The Brewers are 20th in the majors in home runs as of this writing, ahead of just one of the 12 teams currently in postseason positioning, the San Diego Padres. It's been fun watching the Brewers find ways to win games because of their baserunning, defense and pitching, but how sustainable is this come October? Home runs are the most efficient way to put runs on the board, and they become even more important in October when the pitching is at its best - stringing hits together is easier said than done.
The Brewers have had this need all season, but did not address it at the trade deadline. Sure, they acquired Andrew Vaughn midseason, and he added an immediate spark, but he's gone 93 plate appearances without a home run, and his track record is far from stellar. The Brewers have won regular season games in spite of this, but if they fail to win it all, their lack of power could be a big reason why.
Philadelphia Phillies
Biggest in-season mistake: Sticking with Jordan Romano for far too long
The Philadelphia Phillies took a bit of a risk, allowing Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez to walk in free agency and replacing them with Jordan Romano and Joe Ross. It made some sense to let Hoffman and Estevez, two relatively pricey relievers who struggled in last year's postseason, walk, but the Phillies replaced them with two massive question marks. Well, Ross has been DFA'd, and Romano, after a season's worth of appearances, is on the IL.
Romano began the year as the Phillies' primary closer, and it goes without saying that he didn't perform too well in that role. Despite this, Rob Thomson kept him pitching in high leverage for much of the first two months of the season, an indefensible decision, and one Philadelphia could pay for.
Romano has an 8.23 ERA in 49 appearances this season. He's allowed a whopping 40 runs (39 earned) in 42.2 innings of work. He's allowed 10 home runs, allowing 2.11 long balls per nine, a number far too high. He's allowed more than four runs in an outing four times and more than one run 11 times. He's had some good outings, to be fair, but too often have we seen Romano either blow a game or turn a game that was close into a blowout in the wrong direction.
The Phillies are going to win the NL East, but they're in a battle with the Brewers and Dodgers for seeding. The games Romano wound up blowing or letting get out of hand could be what costs them the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NL, and given how big a factor home-field advantage can be for this Phillies team in particular, that's a problem. Giving Romano, a former All-Star, some chances made sense, but they stuck with him for far too long.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Biggest in-season mistake: Keeping Tanner Scott in the closer role
Remember when we thought the Los Angeles Dodgers had built a super-bullpen after signing Tanner Scott, the best reliever available, to a four-year deal? Well, things haven't quite played out as planned, and the biggest reason for that is that Scott has become a shell of himself.
In 53 appearances, the southpaw has a 4.47 ERA across 50.1 innings of work. Most alarmingly, he's allowed 10 home runs this season after allowing a total of 11 across his previous three seasons combined. Scott has been throwing more strikes than ever, which, arguably, has been to his detriment.
Despite these struggles, Scott has remained Dave Roberts' primary closer all year when he's been healthy. Blowing nine of his 30 save opportunities apparently doesn't matter at all, as all but two of Scott's appearances have begun in the seventh inning or earlier. Sure, the Dodgers don't exactly have an in-house replacement, but the formula Roberts has been trusting just hasn't been working. Keeping Scott in the highest-leverage moments could be what costs the Dodgers in the NL West race or in their quest to earn a bye.
Chicago Cubs
Biggest in-season mistake: Passing on a high-end bullpen addition
The Chicago Cubs hoped that taking a low-risk shot on Ryan Pressly would pay off, but the opposite occurred. The former star closer struggled in that role for the Cubs to the point where he was removed from it after about a month and a half of the season and was eventually DFA'd on the day of the trade deadline.
Daniel Palencia has done a superb job taking over as the team's closer, but he's inexperienced and has had his share of hiccups. Knowing that their bullpen had some question marks, the only moves the team made to address it were acquiring Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers, two veterans who shouldn't be trusted in the late innings.
I understood the Cubs not meeting the absurd asking prices for high-end starting pitching, as big a blow as that was, but not trading for a high-end reliever when so many of them were moved stung a bit. It stings even more now that Palencia is hurt and without a clear timetable for his return.
San Diego Padres
Biggest in-season mistake: Keeping Luis Arraez in the No. 2 spot of the lineup
The San Diego Padres have been as aggressive as any team when it comes to attempting to improve their roster, but the same can't be said about Mike Shildt trying to improve his lineup. For whatever reason, the Padres have had Luis Arraez entrenched in the No. 2 spot of the batting order all season long, and that's a major problem.
In the past, this spot made some sense for him. Arraez has always had his share of faults, but he won the batting title in 2022, 2023 and 2024. This season, though, he hasn't been nearly as effective, slashing .282/.317/.385 with seven home runs and 54 RBI in 140 games. A .282 batting average is rock-solid, but it isn't quite where Arraez had been throughout his career, and considering his lack of power, speed and plate discipline, he hasn't been getting on base or slugging enough to justify hitting second in the order every night. I mean, his batting average is roughly 40 points higher than Jake Cronenworth's, but his OBP is over 60 points lower because he doesn't draw walks. As a result, Cronenworth's 121 wRC+ is much higher than Arraez's.
I get that Arraez does an exceptional job making contact, but he doesn't do anything with said contact. He isn't a threat to hit the ball out of the ballpark and doesn't draw walks. I'd argue that with his poor base running and defense in mind, he should be closer to sitting on the bench most nights than hitting in between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, the Padres' best two hitters. San Diego has struggled to score runs this season, and hitting Arraez where he's been all year has contributed to that. This could end up being the reason why they don't win the NL West.
New York Mets
Biggest in-season mistake: Delaying Nolan McLean's call-up
For the first two-ish months of the season, the New York Mets were among the best teams in the sport because of their starting pitching. Well, things have taken a turn since Kodai Senga suffered an injury in mid-June, and the Mets are now on the brink of falling out of the playoffs altogether.
The Mets' 2.79 rotation ERA before Senga's injury was the best in the sport. In the three months since, their 5.04 ERA is good for 24th in the majors. Virtually everyone, even their All-Star, David Peterson, has unraveled ever since. The lone exception to that is rookies that the Mets have called up, with Nolan McLean front and center in that regard.
McLean, one of the best pitching prospects in the sport, has lit the MLB world on fire since his mid-August promotion, posting a 1.42 ERA in five starts, all five of which have come against good to great offenses, across 31.2 innings of work. He's been able to pitch into the sixth inning in all five of his appearances, something Mets starters have routinely struggled to do all year, and he's won four of his five starts. His only loss came in a 1-0 defeat in which he allowed one run in 5.1 innings on the road against the NL-East-leading Phillies. Yeah, he's been pretty, pretty good.
Given how dominant he's been, where was he all year? I mean, he had a 2.78 ERA in 16 Triple-A appearances prior to his call-up after dominating Double-A to start the year. He certainly looked ready, and he's only exceeded expectations in the majors. The Mets were starting guys like Senga who had to get sent down to Triple-A and Frankie Montas, who had a 6.68 ERA as a starter over giving McLean a look in July or early August.
In what's shaping up to be a close race for the final Wild Card spot in the NL, buying time with McLean, even if it meant making sure he was really ready and that he'd maintain his rookie eligibility, could prove to be New York's downfall. McLean could've helped extend the Mets' lead, and instead, they're fighting for their lives thanks to poor starts by guys they went to before him.