If you’re under the age of 25 and have been on the internet at any point in the last three years, there’s a chance you’ve seen this meme:
— Oliver Fox (@oliversfox) August 21, 2026
This meme was of tremendous importance to Red Sox Twitter last year, as they marched through seemingly every possible iteration of .500 — win a game, lose a game. Perfectly balanced. In 2026, though, the Red Sox sucked so bad they were 14 games below .500 then turned on the gas and blew right past it. So, out of respect for our former heroes, we’re taking the meme and applying it to the National League Wild Card race between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Padres and Diamondbacks are circling each other in mediocrity
Neither of these teams are actually pure mid. Both are squarely above .500, and would be right where the Red Sox are if they were in the American League: safe and sound in the second Wild Card slot with no major threat from behind them (as of now). But this is the NL; it’s a cruel world full of the Milwaukee Brewers (shudders) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (muffled scream). Even the wild card teams like the Chicago Cubs (gasp) would be running the AL if they were allowed to quantum leap into the fray. Alas, in the NL, seven games above .500 is pure mid. So who is better?
The preeminent scholars of mid will tell you that pure mid is a construction built on stretches of very good and very bad, all averaging to glorious mediocrity. And I was floored by how mid these two teams are, particularly when compared to each other: their run differentials (as of Friday afternoon) are hilariously mid — +3 for the Padres, +4 for the Diamondbacks. They have nearly identical total batting WAR: 15.0 for the Padres, 14.8 for the Diamondbacks, good for 15th and 16th place, naturally.
As for the mid equation, the Diamondbacks are slightly above mid in several important hitting stats, while pretty below mid (sometimes just bad) at a number of pitching indicators. The Padres are the inverse, having a nightmarish offensive season with far more passable pitching. It’s like a mid rap battle: “oh, he hit ‘em with the super mediocre xwOBA … ahhh he got ‘em with the totally unremarkable xFIP!”
Do either of these teams have an edge?
When teams are this even (at least on balance) analytically, I start looking through which things I actually care about that could swing a team’s destiny down the stretch. One such quite-important and rather-projectable concept is depth of starting rotation. FanGraphs Depth Charts have both the Padres and Diamondbacks rotations at 23rd and 22nd respectively, and that pretty much matches up with my own feelings; they're two injured groups, which aren’t bad on paper but have not been on paper since the 2026 season was a mere twinkle in Rob Manfred’s eye.
Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes are the meat of Arizona’s rotation, and both will be out at least until sometime in September. The Padres’ rotation isn’t as good on paper but is also less injured, missing Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove but holding it down with trade deadline additions Robbie Ray and Casey Mize. Who I trust will come down to who’s healthy, though I’d lean Padres at the moment given Arizona’s total uncertainty with their top two and how San Diego invested at the deadline.
Another thing I look for in wild card races is your bullpen, and the Padres have one of the if not the single best bullpen in Major League Baseball. The Diamondbacks … do not, so that’s definitely point San Diego. Of course, relief pitching is volatile, but the Padres have more weapons to use late in games that could give them an edge down the stretch. I was not impressed with Arizona’s pen in the recent Red Sox series I got to see in person, but I know they’re not that bad in reality.
This may be settled on the last game of the season
Finally, let’s talk about defense. Both of these are excellent defensive teams, trailing only the Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals in team Fielding Run Value. The breakdown is actually really funny to look at, though, as the D-Backs are getting nothing good or bad out of their catchers, have crazy range value as a team but no arm value to speak of. Meanwhile, the Padres have no range, apparently, but are making it back on arm value. Data point number 323 as to why defensive metrics in baseball are more confusing than they are helpful.
If you were hoping for a final verdict as to who is better, you haven’t been paying attention. This is pure mid we’re discussing, and these teams are honestly closer to each other than they are to anyone else. Their regular season series is, I kid you not, even at 5-5 after 10 games. It’s almost like they’re trying to do this. But it won’t end tied, and these teams might stay circling each other for another month until they finally meet again to decide things: on September 25 … the last series of the regular season.
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