Predicting every MLB awards race after the season's first month

One month into a long MLB season, it's much too early to predict the end-of-season awards with any certainty. We can, however, look at recent trends and lean on past wisdom to at least capture the essence of the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year races as things stand.

From old faces to new, up-and-coming challengers, here's how things could shake out in the American League and the National League:

American League Rookie of the Year

Current odds

Winner if the season ended today: Munetaka Murakami

This AL Rookie of the Year race is loaded. Munetaka Murakami and Kevin McGonigle are positioned as early headliners, but Chase DeLauter has five homers and an .823 OPS for a competitive Guardians squad, while his teammate Parker Messick has a 1.73 ERA through six starts and looks like the next Cleveland pitching prodigy come to light. Carter Jensen is a tank in the heart of the Royals lineup. Connelly Early is on an All-Star path in Boston. A lot of dudes will compete for this award.

That said, it's hard not to peg Murakami as the current frontrunner. Some of the analytics will paint McGonigle as the superior player (and he is), but Murakami has a certain narrative thrust behind him at the moment. He leads MLB with 12 home runs and is on pace to smash rookie records in the power department. Time will tell if it lasts, but Murakami's bat has generated a level of hope on the South Side of Chicago that we have not seen in a very, very long time. (They should probably trade him, but there's no way).

Murakami sits with a .965 OPS and 165 OPS+, with 23 runs batted in. He hustles. He strikes out a lot, yes, but he also draws walks, exhibiting incredible plate vision and discipline within the strike zone. Even if he does continue to strike out at what feels like an unsustainable rate (32.5 percent), there's reason to believe he can travel the same path as Nick Kurtz and Kyle Schwarber.

Predicted winner: Kevin McGonigle

With all that said, McGonigle is going to win this award. He's too damn good at literally everything. He's still waiting for the power numbers to perk up (two home runs), but McGonigle is an extra-bases machine with a .951 OPS and 162 OPS+. He rips baseballs into the gaps and burns rubber, with incredible speed and base-running instincts.

McGonigle's value is buoyed by elite defense at both shortstop or third base. He does not strike out. He's patient in his approach. There are very few holes to poke in his repertoire. As awesome as Murakami is, the White Sox are going to slowly fall out of public consciousness. Detroit is a potential division champ with a real World Series path, and McGonigle bats leadoff. We can't write it in sharpie yet, but we ought to get a pencil out and start sketching his name on the trophy.

National League Rookie of the Year

Current odds

Winner if the season ended today: Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart gave us a taste last season, but the Reds rookie is blossoming into a true cornerstone of the Cincinnati lineup right now. He's up to nine home runs and 29 RBI, with a .987 OPS and 166 OPS+. And every bit of it looks sustainable under the hood. Stewart has slashed his strikeout rate (18.0 percent), he's in the 84th percentile for walks (13.9 percent), and he delivers consistent hard contact with mile-high launch angles.

He's less impactful as a defender or base-runner, but really, the offensive profile is emblematic of MVP candidates, not Rookie of the Year candidates. Cincy currently tops the NL Central and while it does not feel like a very safe margin, there's no reason the Reds can't build on the momentum of last year's surprise Wild Card berth.

Predicted winner: Nolan McLean

And yet... Nolan McLean is my season-long pick, and not for anything Stewart hasn't done. Maybe this is overthinking a superstar position player who's on the field and batting cleanup on a daily basis. But McLean is similarly absurd right now. The Mets are in a deep depression, but assuming New York claws its way back to respectability — even if the postseason is out of reach — McLean will get his moment in the sun.

He's far and away the ace of a staff with two 2025 All-Stars in Freddy Peralta and David Peterson. McLean has a 2.55 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, notching 45 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. McLean exhibits remarkable command over his fastballs and sinkers, which sets up some of the nastiest breaking stuff in MLB. Just look at this:

Perhaps this is big-market bias, but that unquestionably impacts voting in awards races — and McLean did all of this last season, too. He's a workhorse with Cy Young potential, and thus he gets a slight edge over Stewart when projecting forward.

American League Cy Young

Current odds

Winner if the season ended today: Cam Schlittler

Tarik Skubal has won this award twice in a row and he's the favorite to win it a third time, which would put him in exclusive company among some of the greatest pitchers in MLB history. He's off to an incredible start for an excellent Tigers team, but the best pitcher in the American League so far is probably Cam Schlittler.

We already knew Schlittler was capable of this. He put up a sub-3.00 ERA across 14 starts as a rookie. He's taking it to another level in year two, however, with a 1.77 ERA and 0.73 WHIP across six starts and 35.2 innings. His 1.53 FIP, which measures pitching value independently of team defense, leads the American League.

There are so few holes in Schlittler's repertoire. He does not concede free bases. He generates a ton of swing-and-miss, with a 39.0 percent whiff rate on his fastball and 39.1 percent on his curveball. The sinker, his third-most used pitcher, does its job and gets soft-hit groundballs. His fastball array is overwhelming, and when he sprinkles in the off-speed stuff, hitters are at a loss. If it weren't so early in his career, with so little track record, the 25-year-old would be a very credible season-long prediction at this point.

Predicted winner: Tarik Skubal

That said, Schlittler has not proven he can maintain this dominance over 200-plus innings yet. That's not to say he can't, we just haven't seen it — in the Minors or the Majors. And while Skubal is off to a slightly below-average start by his high standards, the southpaw's numbers still sparkle. He has a 2.72 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 36.1 innings. More importantly, we know Skubal can sustain it.

Skubal is the easy, safe choice. There's a strong chance he's unseated, whether it's by Schlittler, red-hot José Soriano in Anaheim, or even Blue Jays strikeout maestro Dylan Cease. But if we are the weigh the odds and lean on precedent, yes, Skubal is a strong bet to win his third straight Cy Young award on the eve of free agency.

National League Cy Young

Current odds

Winner if the season ended today: Mason Miller

Mason Miller was proven mortal on Monday night, as he allowed three hits and two earned runs in San Diego's win over the Cubs. That ended a 33.1-inning scoreless streak dating back to last season and brough his current ERA up to 1.26 with a 0.56 WHIP and 10 saves. Still, he's approaching historic territory for a reliever. He has 28 strikeouts in 14.1 innings (a whopping 56.0 percent strikeout rate, the best in MLB). His -0.36 FIP (yes, negative) would lap past Cy Young winners out of the bullpen.

It's still early in the season, of course. We've seen Miller struggle with command in the past and it's generally quite difficult to maintain perfection in such a concentrated, high-leverage role. Relievers are volatile by nature, and while Miller is pound-for-pound the most dominant arm in baseball, his Cy Young case will probably dissipiate by August and September. The voting body today (compared to 2003, when a reliever last won the award) is also conditioned to respect a starting workload more, if we're being honest.

Predicted winner: Paul Skenes

That leads us to yet another familiar but inevitable outcome. Skubal is probably more vulnerable in the AL than Paul Skenes is in the NL, if only due to the disaparity in competition at this point. The NL isn't without its share of aces — Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cris Sánchez and Chris Sale are some of the best arms in the sport — but none of Skenes' competition is at their absolute sharpest right now.

Skenes began the season with an absolute stinker on Opening Day, in which he allowed four hits, two walks and five earned runs in two-thirds of an innings before Pittsburgh yanked the cord. It felt like the sort of disaster that could impact his awards candidacy for an entire season, even if we knew it wouldn't last.

Well, five starts later, Skenes has a 2.78 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with 30 strikeouts in 29.0 innings. His expected ERA (1.94) is even better. It's like that Opening Day nightmare never really happened. Skenes locked right back in and has looked every bit his usual, Cy Young-winning self since then. He leads the best rotation in the NL and Pittsburgh is finally winning games behind Skenes' dominance on the mound.

That's not to say Sánchez or Yamamoto (or even Miller) can't pop off on a season-long arc, but Skenes' velocity, variety and command is unmatched. He's the best in the business, full stop, and he's going to pick up a couple more trophies at least before his career is over.

American League MVP

Current odds

Winner if the season ended today: Yordan Álvarez

Houston's sluggish start to the campaign should not overshadow what Yordan Álvarez continues to do at the plate. He's a World Series champ and a three-time All-Star, so we know the deal at this point. He might be the best pure hitter in the Majors. Álvarez is in the 98th percentile for strikeouts (8.5 percent), the 86th percentile for walks (14.7 percent) and the 84th percentile for hard-hit rate (50.0 percent). He's second to Murakami with 11 home runs and boasts an AL-best 1.220 OPS.

There is not a more refined offensive weapon in the American League right now. He contributes very little as a defender or a base-runner, but Álvarez has mastered the art of hitting for power without sacrificing the margins. If the Astros turn their season around, he is a very real threat to dethrone back-to-back MVP Aaron Judge.

Predicted winner: Aaron Judge

At the end of the day, however, Aaron Judge is Aaron Judge. While he's going to strike out more than Álvarez and occasionally glitch under pressure, Judge consistently outperforms his peers — to the point where a switch-hitting catcher hit 60 home runs in 2025 and Judge was still the clear-cut AL MVP.

Judge is off to a hot start of his own this season, with 11 homers and a 1.010 OPS. The Yankees are also starting to separate as the best team in the American League, which could hand the Judge the narrative boost he needs if Álvarez stays hot. Voter fatigue is a thing, but so is Yankees exceptionalism, and there's a good chance the latter wins out if Judge is still even remotely in the ballpark of his peers by season's end.

National League MVP

Winner if the season ended today: Nico Hoerner

Let us shower some love on Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, who won't get it later in the year. Chicago is on a heater and it feels like the Cubs might actually challenge L.A. in the grand scheme of things, but Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers are a buzzsaw. We can all see and acknowledge it. We know how this ends.

Hoerner has a somewhat unconventional case, as he almost never hits the ball hard. He's up to four home runs on the season, but there's a good chance he finishes in the single digits. While MLB has increasingly placed an emphasis on power over contact, Hoerner is an old-school craftsman of great at-bats. He sees the zone, he takes smart swings, and he hits situationally, with the speed and base-running IQ to take advantage of the many, many hits he produces in the leadoff spot.

He is also, without question, the best defensive second baseman (the best defender?) in MLB. Second base isn't a premium position, but Hoerner delivers premium value with his glove. He's already at seven outs above average on the year, in the 99th percentile. Hoerner is a four-tool superstar in a league that covets the one tool he lacks, which means he is destined to be underappreciated, even if he's better than your favorite player. Call this a personal pick.

Predicted winner: Shohei Ohtani

Of course, Shohei Othani is still going to win MVP. He has come out of the gate a smidge slow at the plate, but his .898 OPS and 154 OPS+ — already elite metrics — will only improve as the bat warms up. We've seen Ohtani cruise past 50 homers and 50 stolen bases in the recent past. He probably won't get there this season, at least not in stolen bases, but the power-speed dynamic remains unmatched.

What really sets Ohtani apart, of course, is that he's also an elite pitcher. He probably won't log enough innings to win Cy Young, but Ohtani currently has a 0.38 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through four starts and 24.0 innings on the mound. While the bat is cold (relatively speaking), he's turning in some of his best outings as a pitcher. There's very little the man can't or won't do.

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