The MLB offseason is less than a month old, and the starting pitching market is already starting to heat up, with the Boston Red Sox acquiring righty Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals in a blockbuster trade on Tuesday. With so many teams desperate for arms and a market relatively flush with options, it feels like free agency is intensifying sooner rather than later.
Dylan Cease is at or near the top of that list. Despite a bloated 4.55 ERA this past season, he remains among the elite bat-missers in the league, and he's thrown at least 165 innings in each of the past five years. That combination of durability and stuff doesn't come around very often, which should make the 29-year-old (he'll turn 30 in December) a very rich man at some point in the next month or two. Which team should be considered the favorite for his services? Let's break it down.
Dark horses for Dylan Cease
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-backs have shown they're willing to spend for starting pitching, from Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner to Corbin Burnes. They've got a need in the rotation with Burnes out for likely all of 2026, and they're too talented to simply write next year off. Add Cease and one more depth arm, and who knows what this offense might be capable of?
Detroit Tigers
If the Tigers have decided that they're content to hang on to Tarik Skubal for one more year before he leaves in free agency, then investing in Cease would make sense — both to maximize 2026 and to move into a post-Skubal future with another (admittedly lesser) ace waiting to replace him. Detroit needs controllable arms beyond next season, and there's no reason they shouldn't have the money.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are set to start next year with all of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt on the IL. Rotation depth isn't the most pressing need, which is why they remain in this section, but it wouldn't be too big a surprise if Brian Cashman made a significant investment in a starter in order to shore things up with an eye on the postseason — whether it's Cease, Tatsuya Imai or someone else.
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San Diego Padres
The Padres certainly have the need, given that Yu Darvish is out for all of 2026 and they're set to lose both Cease and Michael King in free agency. And they certainly have the desire to compete next season, given how much AJ Preller has mortgaged the team's future. But money figures to be awfully tight amid ownership uncertainty, which makes this a tough sell.
Texas Rangers
Much of the above also applies to Texas, a pitching-needy team with designs on competing next season but also with an ownership-given mandate to keep payroll in check. They could really use another arm behind Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, especially considering the injury risk with those two, but Cease might be out of their price range.
Contenders for Dylan Cease
Boston Red Sox
Yes, Boston just traded for Sonny Gray, but he's only under team control through 2026 — and the Red Sox needed multiple arms this winter anyway. Garrett Crochet deserves a long-term running mate, and adding a true No. 2 starter would take this rotation from solid to sensational. Plus, they're still $20 million or so under the luxury tax threshold, so money shouldn't be an issue. The only question is whether Craig Breslow decides to address pitching via yet another trade, keeping his financial powder dry for a run at a bat like Alex Bregman and/or Pete Alonso.
Houston Astros
Depending on whose reporting you want to believe, the Astros got very close to acquiring Cease at last year's trade deadline only for things to fall through at the one-yard line. Houston's need for pitching has only grown more dire in the ensuing months, with Framber Valdez off to free agency and seemingly everyone not named Hunter Brown an injury risk.
Addressing the rotation is job No. 1 for Dana Brown this winter, and while Jim Crane will likely rein in the purse strings a bit after two straight years in the tax, there should be room in the budget for at least one big signing. If a reunion with Valdez is totally off the table, Cease is probably the next-best thing.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants have the money to spend, even with Rafael Devers on the books. They have the motivation, given how transparently desperate Buster Posey is to get this team back to October as soon as possible. And they have the need, with a black hole in the rotation beyond Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
Really, the only thing keeping them in this section rather than the next one is how difficult a time this franchise has had luring big-time free agents to San Francisco. Then again, Oracle Park is a pitcher's dream, and Cease is already used to living on the West Coast.
Favorites for Dylan Cease
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles also don't have a great track record when it comes to winning free agency bidding wars, but it sure does seem like Mike Elias means it when he talks about Baltimore getting aggressive this winter. And if they are, they likely have Cease at the top of their list: Pitching is priority No. 1, especially after parting ways with Grayson Rodriguez, and someone with his swing-and-miss stuff would be an ideal fit in the offense-friendly AL East.
Of course, whether Elias is all talk remains to be seen, as does whether the O's can make a compelling enough pitch that they're one offseason away from World Series contention. It's now or never, though, and that desperation makes them dangerous.
Chicago Cubs
Speaking of now or never: Contract extension or not, few executives need a big offseason more than Jed Hoyer, who watched his Cubs flame out in the NLDS and has already more or less waived the white flag on re-signing Kyle Tucker. Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are all free agents next winter, meaning Hoyer better take Tucker's money and distribute it elsewhere in a hurry unless he wants to squander this core.
And what better way to do it than by landing Cease, exactly the sort of power righty he needs to go with the likes of Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd? The Cubs have no excuse for getting outbid here, and he's arguably the best player available at a position of obvious need for a team in win-now mode.
New York Mets
There's no doubting that the Mets need pitching; Jonah Tong and Nolan McLean are fun, but there are precious few known quantities in this rotation, with Kodai Senga's injury history and Clay Holmes' inconsistency. The only question is how David Stearns will choose to address that need: Will he open Steve Cohen's checkbook and go big, or will he stick with the plan from the last couple of offseasons and prioritize quantity over quality?
It feels like it's time for Stearns to get out of his comfort zone, and Cease would be a great way to do just that. New York needs innings-eaters, and the righty just so happens to be among the most durable starters in the sport. Money should never be an issue for this franchise, and the fit is just too clean.