The trade no one can see coming that would break the MLB Winter Meetings

The most demoralizing trade imaginable is entirely possible. The Dodgers and Tarik Skubal? The Imperial March is already waiting in the queue.
Houston Astros v Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros v Detroit Tigers | Gregory Shamus/GettyImages

The MLB Winter Meetings are almost upon us — Dec. 7-10 in Orlando, FL. — which means free agency is about to begin in earnest. It could also kickstart the trade market, with several high-profile names floating around in rumors.

The name on everybody's mind, however, is Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

Don't count out a Tarik Skubal blockbuster at Winter Meetings

Detroit plans to compete next season and surely views Skubal's pitching mastery as the clearest path to a World Series. Detroit fell in seven games to the Mariners in the ALDS. This team is closer than a lot of folks realize, and trading Skubal is a setback — at least on the surface.

The Tigers want to keep Skubal. Tigers fans would riot if he gets moved. But this is a cutthroat business, and Detroit is up against a deadline here. Skubal, a client of the infamous Scott Boras, will not sign an extension. In fact, the Tigers almost certainly cannot afford an extension.

Beyond that, the Tigers aren't going to outbid MLB's premier coastal markets in free agency. There are countless examples of Detroit letting elite pitchers slip away due to financial reticence. It's practically tradition. It's not hyperbole to say that, barring a most unexpected development, Skubal will not be on the Tigers beyond the 2026 campaign.

So, the question is whether or not the Tigers want to recoup as much value as possible in a trade, or ride it out to the bitter end and risk letting Skubal walk with nothing to show for it.

Should Detroit decide to trade Skubal, it will need to be for a comprehensive return package — one that improves the Tigers' lineup around the edges and sets up the rotation for years to come in his absence. And while several potential contenders have been rightfully linked to Skubal, from the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL, to the Mets and Cubs in the NL, one team can best fulfill Detroit's needs: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Here's what a Tarik Skubal-Dodgers trade looks like

Tarik Skubal, Shohei Ohtani
2025 MLB All-Star Game | Houston Astros/GettyImages

The Dodgers are in an interesting spot. Their front office is the most ambitious, no holds barred front office in MLB. Steve Cohen has deeper pockets in New York, but the Dodgers just don't care about stacking long-term investments. Los Angeles wisely deploys deferred money to spread out their costs and keep building around the unrivaled core trio of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.

L.A. can absolutely afford Skubal's final year of arbitration. The Dodgers can also bid competitively next winter when he becomes a free agent, meaning this is not necessarily a rental. If it is a rental, the Dodgers can at least proceed with confidence in their ability to scale the mountaintop and win a title. The back-to-back champs can therefore operate with a bit more gumption than a team that needs to hedge bets.

Now, that doesn't mean the Dodgers have endless spending power. Even the Dodgers will reach a limit eventually, and it's worth wondering if Skubal is "worth it" for a team with six bonafide, rotation-level arms in the mix. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow are All-Stars. Emmet Sheehan and Rōki Sasaki are possess extremely high ceilings, with Sasaki widely considered the No. 1 prospect in MLB at the beginning of last season.

So why would L.A. expend resources, short term and potentially long term, on Skubal? The answer is simple enough: Depth.

Glasnow, Ohtani and Snell aren't exactly hailed for their durability. Sasaki and Yamamoto have both missed significant time since coming over from Japan. Plus, this is Tarik Skubal — the best pitcher in MLB and a back-to-back Cy Young winner. Some players transcend need, and the Dodgers are the sort of club to capitalize on the availability of generational talents.

Why the Tigers would accept this trade

River Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates v Los Angeles Dodgers | Orlando Ramirez/GettyImages

It's hard to imagine a better return package from Detroit's perspective. Very few teams can sacrifice this level of MLB-ready talent without jeopardizing the immediate on-field product. That's not to say this is risk-free for L.A. — all four of these players could end up on the MLB roster in 2026 without a trade, and Skubal can still leave in a year — but the Dodgers have enough in-house talent and free agent spending power to get by just fine.

Detroit gets a pair of potential cornerstone bats in outfielder Zhyir Hope (LAD's No. 2 prospect) and third baseman Alex Freeland (LAD's No. 4 prospect).

Hope finished last season with an .804 OPS, 13 home runs and 27 stolen bases between High-A and Double-A competition. From MLB Pipeline's scouting report:

"Hope has added significant strength since turning pro and does everything scouts want to see a young hitter do. He makes advanced swing decisions and quality contact, produces elite exit velocities and understands how to pull pitches for power. He has an efficient left-handed swing and could generate 30-homer pop once he learns to lift balls more consistently."

As for Freeland, he logged 84 at-bats across 29 appearances for the MLB squad last season. The numbers didn't pop — .601 OPS, 70 OPS+, 35 strikeouts — but it's unwise to react too strongly to such a small early sample size. Freeland raked in the Minors and tends to display excellent composure and patience in the batter's box.

Detroit needs to flesh out its lineup. Hope could be an everyday outfielder for Detroit by 2027. Freeland can fill gaps at third or second base out of the gate, offering the sort of positional flexibility that Tigers manager A.J. Hinch covets.

This trade also lands Detroit its Skubal succession plan. Sheehan posted a 2.82 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 15 games (12 starts) for the Dodgers last season, notching 89 strikeouts in 73.1 innings. River Ryan (LAD's No. 9 prospect) missed 2025 as he recovered from elbow surgery, but he posted a 1.33 ERA across four starts for the Dodgers in 2024. He can touch 100 MPH on his four-seam fastball and command up to six pitches.

Two almost immediate rotation arms and two high-upside bats to work into the fold over time? Only a package of this magnitude can get Detroit to budge.

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