With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in a matter of weeks, free agency ought to come to a close, even for those with the most on the line. That list includes the likes of Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen, the latter of whom has been connected most often with the Chicago Cubs this winter.
Gallen believes he has a lot left to offer, though his 2025 season suggests he's an aging veteran on the decline. The offers he's received, it would seem, are for a starting pitcher who fits the above description. But pitching – and innings eaters – remain expensive. Gallen is a former NL Cy Young candidate who still has a lot left in the tank, and won't cost any prospect capital via trade.
Why Zac Gallen is still a free agent? He has some red flags
Zac Gallen isn't missing bats
Gallen's strikeout rate dipped starting in the 2024 season, and he hasn't been able to recover. While his average fastball velocity remains just under 94 MPH – which isn't abnormal for Gallen throughout his career – his breaking stuff hasn't fooled opposing hitters and he has yet to adjust. Yes, Gallen can eat a lot of innings and he doesn't seem to have any major injury concerns, but contending teams won't want to pay the price the right-hander is asking for if he's going to linger with a high-fours ERA. That's not good enough, whether he sign in Chicago or elsewhere.
Season | ERA |
|---|---|
2021 | 4.30 |
2022 | 2.54 |
2023 | 3.47 |
2024 | 3.65 |
2025 | 4.83 |
The cost
While Gallen projects to be a bottom-of-the-rotation starter at this point in his career, especially because his fastball isn't nearly as effective as it once was, MLB Trade Rumors believes he's still worth a four-year, $80 million deal. Assuming Gallen's productivity is even close to what it was in 2025, no contending team should dish out that kind of money for a has-been. Here's what Keith Law had to say about Gallen's value entering free agency.
"(Gallen's) been durable, with only one IL stint for a hamstring strain in the last four years, which provides some value even at this reduced level of effectiveness. He’s probably not getting back to the 2022-23 peak without a significant change to his arsenal, which should put him more in line for fourth starter money and probably just a two-year deal," Law wrote.
Now, the starting pitching market is out of control this winter. The longer teams wait to fill that need, the more expensive it'll be to do so either via free agency or trade. Look no further than what the Mets paid for Freddy Peralta.
What kind of contract will Zac Gallen receive in MLB free agency?
MLB Trade Rumors predicted Gallen would receive a four-year, $80 million deal prior to free agency. Spotrac's current valuation runs a bit short of that at $18.7 million. Gallen has the name brand to breath optimism into any starting rotation. He's just a year removed from an above-average 3.65 ERA. However, his fastball has since been tattooed. It is not the out pitch Gallen needs it to be.
At its peak, Gallen's whiff rate on his fastball was near 20 percent. These days, it's at just 13 percent. Perhaps a fresh start could rejuvenate his career, but that will have to come with an increased focus on his secondary pitches. That is why I have a hard time believing Gallen will receive a four-year contract.
A short-term deal with a higher AAV – perhaps even more than the $20 million MLBTR projected – makes more sense for both sides. Assuming Gallen can rebuild his value with a bounce-back 2026 and negotiate an opt-out in his new deal, he'll be able to hit the market in 2027 (lockout pending) and receive the long-term contract of his dreams.
Most likely landing spots for Zac Gallen
The favorite: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs landed Edward Cabrera via trade to revamp their starting rotation, and signed third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million contract. Needless to say, they've had a busy winter. However, they're still lacking some in the starting rotation. The group below could use an ace, as Justin Steele won't be back until midseason.
Order | Pitcher |
|---|---|
1 | Matthew Boyd |
2 | Edward Cabrera |
3 | Jameson Taillon |
4 | Cade Horton |
5 | Shota Imanaga |
Again, that is plenty for Craig Counsell to work with, but there's a reason the Cubs have been connected to Gallen all offseason. If Chicago values one attribute about Gallen, it is his durability. In three of the past four seasons, Gallen has made 31 starts and pitched at least 184 innings. The Cubs would sign up for that sort of consistency in a heartbeat.
Can't rule them out: Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are perhaps leading the chase for starting pitcher Framber Valdez, who has some question marks of his own to deal with. However, should the Orioles' reported negotiations with Valdez fall through, Gallen is a solid (and cheaper) backup plan. Considering Baltimore's big rotation upgrade this winter is the injury-prone Shane Baz, they could counter that with a pitcher who, as mentioned above, is a near-lock to throw 180 innings next season no matter where he plays.
Season | Innings pitched |
|---|---|
2022 | 184 |
2023 | 210 |
2024 | 148 |
2025 | 192 |
On the downside, Gallen is no long the caliber of pitcher the Orioles desperately need to distance themselves from the slew of AL East contenders. Baltimore has a star-studded lineup, and signed Pete Alonso this offseason. They're lacking pitching, which is why they've been linked to everyone from Tarik Skubal to Valdez and now Gallen.
Dark horse: Detroit Tigers
Ah yes, talk about underwhelming! Gallen is no Tarik Skubal, but as the Tigers shop their ace all season long, it'd be refreshing for the fanbase to know that the team has at least considered what life would look like without him. If Detroit were to trade Skubal (and not immediately replace him with another ace), their rotation would include all of Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Reese Olson, Drew Anderson and Troy Melton. If you're asking 'who?' to the vast majority of those players, you can also answer my next question: In what world is that good enough for a serious AL contender?
The Tigers have not added much this offseason, which has frustrated the fanbase. Kenley Jansen is a nice role player, but he's not going to single-handedly save this bullpen. Detroit also managed to keep Gleyber Torres on a qualifying offer. There's more, but not noteworthy in an article about a former Cy Young candidate the Tigers ought to be chasing. He's affordable compared to the rest of the market, and a pitcher Chris Fetter can work with.
Trading a player like Skubal is painful. Doing so without a backup plan is malpractice.