10 NBA predictions so crazy and bold they might just come true

With only a couple more weeks until the return of NBA basketball, it's time to fire off some takes. Not room-temperature takes. Not warm takes. Definitely not cold takes. I are here today to fire off my hot takes — my bold, so-crazy-it-just-might-happen predictions for the 2025-26 NBA season.

The nature of this exercise demands that I throw caution, and maybe even a little bit of logic, to the wind. But I will do my best to present 10 "bold" predictions that I can actually stand behind and believe, in earnest, will (or at least might) happen. Nothing here is ludicrous to the point of absurdity. Nothing here is pie in the sky. All of this can happen. In fact, I'm betting that at least a few of these predictions prove prescient. We can never know anything with certainty this far in advance — the NBA is too unpredictable in nature — but this is all ... possible.

Let's dive in.

Bold prediction: Orlando will claim the No. 1 overall seed in the East

The Cleveland Cavaliers won 64 games last season and are bringing back largely the same roster, with a few minor tweaks to the second unit. But it's so hard to replicate that level of success, especially for a team with stars who tend to frequent the injury report. The Boston Celtics – well, you know the deal. The New York Knicks aren't going anywhere, but Thibs was a great regular-season coach. There will be tweaks to their rest strategy, not to mention an adjustment period to the new scheme.

All this clears the path for a hungry Orlando Magic team. President Jeff Weltman pushed his chips in this offseason, acquiring Desmond Bane via trade and signing Tyus Jones in free agency. He also nailed the draft, selecting early All-Rookie favorite (and preseason standout) Jase Richardson. Also, Jalen Suggs is healthy now.

For a team that desperately needed shooting and playmaking support in the backcourt, Orlando's front office delivered beyond all reasonable expectations. Bane is basically the perfect third star to pair with Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, the kind you'd draw up in your head. Jones and Suggs can run setup duties in the halfcourt. Richardson is an efficient off-guard who can bomb 3s, spam the floater and offer connective tissue. This team is going to be elite on defense — a good recipe for regular-season success — and there's depth across the board, with enough star power and spacing to really ramp up on offense. Just don't be shocked when the Magic are hosting a lot of games in the playoffs.

Subscribe to The Whiteboard, FanSided's daily email newsletter on everything basketball. If you like The Whiteboard, share it with a friend. If you hate it, share it with an enemy!

Bold prediction: Both Amen and Ausar Thompson will be All-Stars this season

Amen Thompson was on the All-Star bubble last season and would've been a much stronger candidate had his breakout started properly a few weeks sooner. The Houston Rockets will be incorporating a whole new focal point with Kevin Durant, but this team should be good enough to support three All-Stars between Thompson, KD and Alperen Sengun. Plus, with Fred VanVleet hurt, we can expect Thompson to handle a lot more ball-handling reps, potentially upping his scoring as well.

The "bold" part of this prediction is tied to Detroit Pistons third-year wing Ausar Thompson, Amen's less-heralded but equally athletic twin brother. A blood clot kept Ausar off the court for a month to begin last season, but he performed well upon his return. He isn't as far along the development curve on offense as his brother, but Ausar is an equally disruptive defender. With his minutes hopefully increasing, Ausar should make a strong case for All-Defense honors.

As for All-Star honors, if Detroit leans into his slashing and secondary playmaking on a more regular basis, the ceiling is awfully high. Thompson is a true outlier athlete. He creates frequent advantages with his speed, dexterity and even his intelligence. If he can parlay a full offseason into serious skill development, like Amen a year ago, Detroit might already have its second star next to Cade Cunningham.

Bold prediction: Jayson Tatum returns ... but Celtics still miss playoffs

Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles in the Celtics' second-round loss to the Knicks. That typically means at least a year off. But it's October and Tatum is already dunking effortlessly in practice and proclaiming his intent to return this season. It's hard to refute what our eyeballs tell us.

There is obviously a difference between dunking off two feet in an open gym and playing 35 minutes of high-intensity basketball against the greatest athletes in the world. Tatum is 6-foot-9, so it's not like he needs major elevation to dunk. Still, he's well ahead of the curve, and a return feels distinctly plausible.

But here's the rub: Even if Boston can hurry Tatum back into the lineup with a couple months left in the season, I'm not sure this team will have the depth and continuity necessary to crack the top eight. The East is "weak" relative to the West, but it's much stronger now than it was a year ago, Boston notwithstanding. If the Hawks, Sixers and Magic all take leaps and we get another surprise or two near the bottom of the pack, Tatum could very well return in service of a Play-In exit.

Bold prediction: Cooper Flagg will be an All-Star as a rookie

It's exceptionally rare for rookies to make the All-Star team. Blake Griffin was the last to do it, and he was an injury redshirt. Before him, it was Yao Ming, all the way back in 2003. That was at a time when being 7-foot-6 and dominating the post was rather advantageous. So expecting 18-year-old Cooper Flagg to come in and immediately scale the ladder is, to put it bluntly, extreme. Maybe even unfair.

But these are bold predictions, so let's get bold. Flagg will step into a featured role immediately, on a Dallas Mavericks team with its sights set on the postseason. Anthony Davis will empower Flagg on defense and give him an excellent two-man dance partner on offense. Jason Kidd has said he plans to put the ball in Flagg's hands early. He will operate as the de facto point guard for long stretches until Kyrie Irving returns, which won't be until midseason at the earliest.

The confluence of ability, opportunity and fit is strong. Dallas needs to keep the floor spaced and make sure Flagg has pressure-release valves on offense — you can't stick two non-shooting bigs in the frontcourt and ask Flagg to create everything from scratch — but if Dallas goes about things the right way, Flagg is mature beyond his years, with a skill set that should yield big numbers. Dallas is going to be an elite defensive team and thus should be fairly competitive. Don't be shocked if Flagg stamps his name in the history books alongside some NBA legends.

Bold prediction: Hawks will finish with a top-four seed and the No. 1 pick

The Atlanta Hawks hired Onsi Saleh to take over the GM role and he immediately ran circles around the rest of the league. Few teams put together a more impressive offseason: The Hawks upgraded at key spots, bringing in Kristaps Porzingis to anchor the middle and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to lead the bench unit. Plus Atlanta somehow convinced the very bad New Orleans Pelicans to hand over their unprotected 2026 first-round pick, in a great draft class, to move up from No. 23 to No. 13 and select Derik Queen. I like Queen, even more than I like Hawks rookie Asa Newell, but the value of that 2026 pick is hard to overstate.

A brief look into the Pelicans' current roster should fill Hawks fans with optimism. Zion Williamson looks to be in the best shape of his career, but until he's actually healthy for an entire season and New Orleans is jockeying for position in the playoffs, I'm not sure we can believe the hype. And the rest of the roster is a mess.

Queen is hurt to begin the year. Jeremiah Fears is a couple years away from genuine winning impact. Jordan Poole is not an upgrade over CJ McCollum. The Pelicans are not untalented, but with injuries across the board and a largely inexperienced group around Zion, it's hard to imagine them stacking a lot of wins. Especially when bad upper management so often spoils the on-court product.

We can't know for sure if Atlanta will receive the No. 1 pick until the lottery next summer, but it's safe the say the dysfunctional Pelicans will struggle and the Hawks, with the foundation for an elite offense and a much more functional defense, should flourish in a winnable Eastern Conference. Hawks fans will be soaring high for the next 12 months.

For more FanSided content directly in your Google feed, add us as a preferred source!

Bold prediction: Warriors will miss the 2026 NBA Playoffs

The Golden State Warriors' offseason was a real head-scratcher. It basically came down to figuring out Jonathan Kuminga's next contract, and after months of deliberation, he's back on a one-year deal that will potentially lead to a trade before this year's deadline. Beyond re-signing Kuminga, all the Warriors did was sign Al Horford, Gary Payton II and Seth Curry, with second-round pick Will Richard also joining the mix.

Golden State now has the oldest starting lineup in the NBA by a wide margin. Moses Moody is the outlier at 23 years old. Stephen Curry (37), Jimmy Butler (36), Draymond Green (35) and Horford (39) are all on their last legs. That is a comically old first five in a league where depth and youth are more important than ever.

The NBA season is an 82-game endurance test — one the Warriors feel destined to fail. Golden State absolutely has the talent necessary to compete in the West, but that is a deep conference, full of younger teams with a lot more depth and a lot more vitality. Teams that aren't coasting on past experience and hoping their 37-year-old superstar can offset the front office's lack of ambition or urgency elsewhere. Golden State was excellent after Butler's arrival last season, but the West is better and it's just hard to imagine the Warriors staying healthy for all 82 games. Everyone is a year older, at the point in their careers where it really starts to hurt. The Kuminga drama won't help.

Golden State will miss the playoffs and next summer will bring about a genuine reckoning.

Bold prediction: LeBron James announces his retirement by midseason

The Los Angeles Lakers are going to stay competitive for as long as Luka Dončić is healthy, but it's fair to wonder if this team is meaningfully better than the group that was expelled in the first round this past season. L.A. didn't have a starting-caliber center on the roster last season, which proved fatal down the stretch. Their big solution to that quagmire this offseason was to sign Deandre Ayton after the Blazers cut ties. Well, there's a reason Portland didn't want him around, even as a mentor for Donovan Clingan and Yang Hansen.

Ayton's defense is consistently inconsistent. He has all the tools of a dominant two-way force, but he seldom applies them all at once. Ayton's midrange shooting and short-roll playmaking should align well enough with Dončić, but he tends to shy away from aggressive takes to the rim — baffling, considering his Herculean frame, and no doubt frustrating for Dončić.

LeBron is already slated to miss time early in the season as he battles with sciatica, which is a classic old man injury. He has said bluntly that he's not waiting on Bryce James to crack the NBA scene. At 40 years old, he's a billionaire with countless off-court ventures and a family to fill his time. LeBron doesn't need this anymore. And if the Lakers aren't going to reach the absolute peak of their competitive ceiling this season — and they won't with Ayton holding the defense together with string and Elmer's glue — why should LeBron keep running his body into the ground? He will realize this is it before the midway point of the season, announce his intention to retire, and spend the rest of his campaign both celebrating and pouring everything into one final push to the finish line.

Bold prediction: 76ers reach the Eastern Conference Finals

So the Philadelphia 76ers are ... back? Joel Embiid might play in the team's final preseason game. He looked great in the intrasquad scrimmage and all the clips out of practice are positive. Paul George appears ahead of schedule in his return from injury. Tyrese Maxey is motivated to end their skid. VJ Edgecombe has received nothing but praise since arriving in Philly. He has also looked great in every appearance to date.

What if the Sixers really are back? This is probably wishful thinking from a Sixers fan. Every time I express confidence in this team, it backfires spectacularly, so believe me — I'm well aware of the grave I am digging for myself. But man, the vibes around Philadelphia sure are positive right now. And we need it. The Phillies are out. The Eagles are in shambles. Can the Sixers rise above it all and bring joy back to a sports town in need?

It's certainly not impossible. That is all I will say. On paper, the Sixers are the best team in the East. Health is a huge swing factor. Embiid and George actually need to play. Jared McCain needs to get back and stay healthy. A single literal misstep, particularly from Embiid, could send this whole team spiraling into the lottery again. But if Embiid can put 60-plus games on the board and get to the playoffs healthy, the East is short on answers to him. Cleveland always struggles with that matchup. The Knicks are entering uncharted territory with a new coach. The Magic are a threat, but hey: Philly has star power, experience and above all else, a dream. This will almost certainly age poorly, but let me have this.

Bold prediction: Giannis will get traded by the deadline

Let's keep it blunt: The Milwaukee Bucks aren't very good. Giannis Antetokounmpo is great — one of the best players of his generation — but the team around him is a mess. Doc Rivers is about a decade past his prime as a coach. Factor in Damian Lillard's dead cap hit, and Myles Turner is quietly the most overpaid player in the sport. Kyle Kuzma's not far behind. The Bucks don't have a starting-caliber point guard, with all due respect to Kevin Porter Jr. (Actually, scratch that, there's no due respect.)

The Bucks are old, slow and frightfully thin. A literal sixth of their roster is currently dedicated to the Antetokounmpo family. Two of his brothers, neither of whom are NBA-level players, are taking up roster spots. That makes sense as a placation effort, but it won't help the Bucks win games.

Giannis' name was in trade rumors all summer. Hell, it's still in trade rumors, which won't go away if the team struggles out of the gate. Giannis alone can probably guarantee Milwaukee a postseason berth if he's healthy, but this team will be fighting for its life every game, not coasting to a top-four seed and home-court advantage. It won't take long for the viewing public to realize just how fragile this Bucks roster is. Giannis will need even less time to figure it out. Since he continues to stoke the flames when asked about a future trade, let's place our bets now. The Bucks will be shopping their All-Star forward by the Feb. 6 deadline.

Bold prediction: Victor Wembanyama will win the MVP award

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ran away with the MVP award by the end of last season. OKC won't take a step back. Meanwhile, there's Skinny Luka generating buzz in Los Angeles. Nikola Jokić is the consensus best player in the world and the Nuggets are a whole lot better. Giannis is still Giannis. And yet, despite all these great, perennial contenders with strong narratives on their side, what if this is the year Victor Wembanyama breaks through?

Wemby is basically a lock to win DPOY if he's healthy. Last season, we saw him fine-tune his shot selection and feast on easier looks created by De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. Now he has No. 2 pick Dylan Harper joining the mix. Also, it would appear that Wemby has, um, added a few pounds over the summer. He's playing like vintage Joel Embiid in the preseason, dropping his shoulder and plowing through opponents at the rim. He's also 7-foot-5, so it's becoming difficult to understand how exactly Wemby will be stopped.

Wembanyama works as hard as anyone to keep his body in shape and his limbs flexible, ideally to avoid injuries. His absence last season was due to a blood clot, which is obviously serious, but it's not a knee or foot injury, which tend to be the downfall of great big men. The MVP ceiling was there from the beginning, but it seems like Wembanyama is dangerously close to reaching it as he enters just his third season in the NBA. If he's playing with physicality at the rim, without losing his dexterity on defense and his unique perimeter skill on offense, not much is keeping him from claiming the NBA's top individual honor. There just aren't any players who can impact both sides of the court at the level Wemby is threatening to.