Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- With only days left in the regular season, several teams are still battling for crucial positioning in the upcoming NBA Draft Lottery on May 10.
- Brooklyn currently holds a narrow lead in the odds but faces stiff competition from teams actively manipulating their records.
- The outcome will determine which franchise lands one of the generational talents expected to dominate the top of the 2026 draft class.
The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will take place roughly a month from now, on May 10. Representatives for all non-competitive teams will file into a secret location and watch as a random pingpong generator selects, absent any sentiment or narrative thrust, which teams will select 1-4 in June — and, by extension, finalizing the rest of the lottery order.
The NBA has seen a tank race of epic scope in recent weeks as teams jockey for a chance to land one of several generational talents at the top of this class. We haven't seen a top four as strong as AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson in quite some time. Even the late lottery and mid-first round has a chance to yield serious value. Here is how the odds currently stack up with less than a week left in the regular season.
2026 NBA Draft Lottery odds if the season ended today
Team | Record | Top 4 odds | No. 1 odds |
|---|---|---|---|
1. Washington Wizards | 17-62 | 52.1% | 14% |
2. Indiana Pacers | 18-61 | 52.1% | 14% |
3. Brooklyn Nets | 20-59 | 52.1% | 14% |
4. Utah Jazz | 21-59 | 45.2% | 11.5% |
5. Sacramento Kings | 21-59 | 45.2% | 11.5% |
6. Memphis Grizzlies | 25-54 | 34.8% | 8.3% |
7. Dallas Mavericks | 25-54 | 34.4% | 8.2% |
8. Atlanta Hawks (via NOP) | 26-54 | 26.3% | 6.0% |
9. Chicago Bulls | 30-49 | 20.3% | 4.5% |
10. Milwaukee Bucks | 31-48 | 13.9% | 3.0% |
11. Golden State Warriors | 37-42 | 9.4% | 2.0% |
12. Portland Trail Blazers | 40-39 | 7.1% | 1.5% |
13. Miami Heat | 41-38 | 4.8% | 1.0% |
14. Charlotte Hornets | 43-37 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
Indiana and Washington basically mastered the tank this season. Both teams acquired All-Star talent at the deadline — Ivica Zubac to Indiana, Anthony Davis and Trae Young to Washington — but managed to stay in the gutter long enough to basically wrap up top odds. Indiana will get a healthy Zubac and Tyrese Haliburton back next season, potentially with a top-tier prospect in tow. The Wizards will attempt to thread the needle between an exciting young core and two established veterans with postseason pedigree.
That said, the Pacers are still walking a tightrope, as their pick is top-four protected to Los Angeles. So, if Indiana gets the short end of the stick on lottery night, the Zubac trade will start to look significantly worse in hindsight. It was a gutsy risk, but an understandable one given the Pacers' desire to contend next season.
Atlanta, meanwhile, receives the highest of New Orleans' and Milwaukee's first-round picks. That means the Hawks really have 40.2 percent odds to land top four and nine percent odds to land No. 1 overall — better than their odds in 2024, when the Hawks stumbled into Zaccharie Risacher with the top pick.
Portland is currently a game behind the Los Angeles Clippers for eighth place in the Western Conference. Their Play-In ticket is already punched. The Blazers' pick is lottery protected to Chicago, meaning if Portland sneaks into the playoffs, the Bulls will get two first-round picks to kickstart a new era in the front office.
Oklahoma City currently owns the 15th and 16th picks from the Clippers and Sixers, respectively. That is two potential Play-In teams who owe their pick, unprotected, to the best team in basketball. OKC could end up with multiple lottery picks and multiple bites at the apple, so to speak, depending on how L.A. and Philadelphia fare in the weeks ahead.
Brooklyn needs to lose out
Brooklyn is currently tied with Washington and Indiana for the best No. 1 odds in the draft, but the tides are turning down the stretch. The Nets are coming off of back-to-back wins over Washington and Milwaukee, now only a half-game ahead of Utah and Sacramento, who are tied for the fourth- and fifth-best odds.
The Jazz have lost 10 straight games. To borrow a phrase from The Wire, Utah has really successfully juked the stats this year. The Jazz are sitting healthy stars and doing everything in their power to lose, the league's anti-tanking efforts be damned.
Sacramento has lost two straight and seven of its last ten. The Nets are less talented than Sacramento but much better coached. If the Nets will face Indiana, Milwaukee and Toronto to close out the season. Two of three are winnable games against other teams in active tank mode. The Nets are in real danger of falling down the lottery board a couple spots. For all we know, though, the team with the fifth-best odds could vault to No. 1. The lottery has a way of making it feel like none of this jockeying actually matters on a granular level.
Who are the best prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft?
Here are the best prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft, per FanSided's most recent big board. And check back at FanSided.com in the days ahead for an updated top 100 as we process the aftermath of the NCAA Tournament.
Name | Position | School |
|---|---|---|
1. Cameron Boozer | F | Duke |
2. Darryn Peterson | G | Kansas |
3. AJ Dybantsa | F | BYU |
4. Caleb Wilson | F | North Carolina |
5. Kingston Flemings | G | Houston |
6. Dailyn Swain | F | Texas |
7. Mikel Brown Jr. | G | Louisville |
8. Keaton Wagler | G | Illinois |
9. Bennett Stirtz | G | Iowa |
10. Yaxel Lendeborg | F | Michigan |
11. Labaron Philon Jr. | G | Alabama |
12. Darius Acuff Jr. | G | Arkansas |
13. Aday Mara | C | Michigan |
14. Patrick Ngongba II | C | Duke |
AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer remain the consensus top three, although the order varies from source to source. While Boozer remains my No. 1 prospect (and has since preseason), Dybantsa is currently the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 overall, with Peterson still owning the second-best odds despite an injury-plagued freshman season at Kansas.
There is increasing buzz around a potential last-second party crasher, though. Caleb Wilson put up bonkers two-way stats at UNC and his live-wire athleticism could capture the imagination of scouts more than a ground-bound power forward like Boozer. Darius Acuff Jr. was also the best offensive player in college basketball over the final month of the season. Small guards are never the safest bet high in the draft, but Acuff's poise and versatility is next level. He sure looks the part, and could convince the right team to reach.
The big winners of March Madness are probably Keaton Wagler and Aday Mara, who showcased the full breadth of their unique skill sets en route to the Final Four — and, in Mara's case, a national championship.