The Atlanta Falcons are a team to watch in advance of Thursday night's NFL Draft.
On the surface, there's not too much intrigue around Atlanta's selection with the No. 15 pick. We know the Falcons need help on defense and will act accordingly, with multiple EDGE prospects pegged as potential targets.
What Atlanta does on the trade front, however, could draw eyeballs.
Kirk Cousins remains in a nebulous no-man's land, technically rostered as Michael Penix Jr.'s backup, but almost definitely available to the highest bidder as the Falcons attempt to move on from their $180 million misfire.
While general manager Terry Fontenot has projected a certain level of comfort with keeping Cousins on the roster, that reads as a blatant leverage ploy. It's way too distracting to keep such an accomplished vet behind your sophomore signal-caller, especially after how last season unfolded.
And, according to one NFL GM in an anonymous conversation with Outkick's Armando Salguero, a trade is going to happen — without a doubt. It's just a matter of finding out when exactly the transaction when transpire.
NFL GM believes Falcons are definitely trading Kirk Cousins, it's just a matter of where and when
"Your colleagues have totally bought in to the Falcons on [the] Cousins trade," the GM said. "They've played all you people. They're trading him. It's gonna happen guaranteed. They've been talking to a bunch of teams. Only question is when they come back to earth and do it. That might be awhile."
Cousins has a no-trade clause, so he was always expected to wait until after the NFL Draft to accept a trade. He does not want to get Penix'd twice in a row, which is understandable. That said, it's unclear which teams will still need a quarterback once the draft concludes. Cleveland and Pittsburgh, the most probable Cousins landing spots on paper, could both target a rookie in the days to come. Is Cousins okay with mentoring the likes of Shedeur Sanders or Jalen Milroe after how last season went down?
That remains to be seen. But a trade will come eventually, from the sound of it. Cousins unexpectedly showed up to offseason workouts in Atlanta, but don't let his outward professionalism fool you. Cousins wants a trade, as do the Falcons. This is just him playing nice until a deal crosses the finish line.
Atlanta wants one of two outcomes with a Cousins trade, per Salguero: "a solid draft pick or a lesser pick and cap relief from the $37.5 million they're on the hook for this year."
It's unclear how likely this is, but Cousins is valued as a starting quarterback in most circles. This past season was a disaster, but he was also recovering from a major knee surgery — the first extended absence of his pro football career. In a better situation, and with better health, there's reason to believe Cousins can restore his on-field reputation a bit.
Atlanta won't get more than, like, a fourth-round pick for Cousins when all is said and done. The Falcons are attempting to gain leverage by threatening to keep the 36-year-old into the regular season, but the market is too thin for it to work. Fontenot rejected the idea that the Falcons want Cousins' next team to absorb $20 million of his salary. Expect Atlanta to bite the bullet, swallow the majority of his contract, and recoup marginal value at some point in the days or weeks after the draft.