As we approach Week 1 of the NFL season, everyone is excited. Even the most tortured of fanbases will find optimism in the unlikeliest of places. Anything is possible. The slate is blank. Our whole futures lie ahead.
A lot of what happens this season will be predictable. The Chiefs will probably make the playoffs (gasp!). The Eagles are going to be a very good, well-rounded team (shocking!). We might even get another MVP-level campaign out of Lamar Jackson (what!?).
But there will also be things that are unpredictable. It's a given in any season. We can't know what exactly will shock our senses and defy our expectations, but we know something will. The goal of this article is to predict, with any modicum of accuracy, a handful of potential surprises that will grace the 2025 NFL season.
Let's start...
The Browns' Week 18 quarterback isn't on the roster yet
Much has been made of the ongoing battle for QB2 honors between Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel. The Cleveland Browns will start 40-year-old Joe Flacco under center to begin the season, but he's completely immobile in the pocket and he wasn't good enough to yank the Colts job away from Anthony Richardson last season, and the Colts would prefer to put just about anyone with a pulse ahead of Richardson on the depth chart.
Gabriel will probably get the first crack at things, but he's undersized with limited arm talent. He's coming from an Oregon program will very few schematic parallels to the NFL. Meanwhile, Shedeur Sanders is a fifth-round pick and a third-string quarterback, so expecting name value alone to launch him to relevance might be misguided.
If the Browns bench Flacco and find their rookies inconsistent, that opens the door for a midseason trade or an emergency free agent signing. Maybe, just maybe, their Week 18 start is somebody we haven't talked about yet because they aren't in Cleveland yet.
Micah Parsons will win Super Bowl MVP
Well, it really happened. The Green Bay Packers acquired Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday, completing the most consequential blockbuster trade in recent NFL history. Suddenly, the Packers feel like a genuine title threat in the rough-and-tumble NFC. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are slinking back to the NFL basement.
Parsons changes everything for Green Bay. This offense was already among the few capable of keeping pace with the Philadelphias and Kansas Citys of the world. Now the defense is leveling up, with Parsons — a durable, four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher — anchoring a revamped pass rush.
What better revenge for Parsons than going the distance in Green Bay after bumping up against the Dallas Postseason Wall for so long? The Packers have equipped to make a run at things and there isn't a juicier potential storyline than Parsons mucking things up for Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LX, to the point where he becomes the rare defensive star to take home Super Bowl MVP honors.
A quarterback (Cam Ward) won't win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Four of the last six winners of the AP Rookie of the Year award were quarterbacks. It's easy to peg Cam Ward, the No. 1 overall pick and a guaranteed starter, as the frontrunner to win the award this season. But what if he just doesn't? What we saw in preseason is that this Tennessee offense still has a long way to go. Ward is plenty talented, but he also has longer to go than your average top pick at QB.
This was a wonky NFL Draft class, but if the Titans struggle and Ward fails to break through, it's easy enough to look at the likes of Ashton Jeanty, Travis Hunter or Tet McMillan as viable candidates to win football's top rookie honor. Jeanty is going to put up Saquon Barkley numbers in Vegas. Hunter is going to play both sides of the ball and earn a hefty target share in Liam Coen's air-it-out offense. McMillan is the clear No. 1 target for an improving Panthers team...
Maybe this isn't even crazy. But don't pencil Ward as the ROTY favorite just yet, because a mediocre QB season won't be good enough for the award in 2025.
The Chiefs won't win the AFC West
The Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West every year since 2016. They are the greatest juggernaut in modern football and won 15 games last season. So what gives? Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid aren't going anywhere.
That said, the Chiefs' 15-win season in 2024 was the luckiest 15-win season in recent memory. So many of those wins were one-score squeakers. No team is better at operating under pressure, but eventually Kansas City's luck will run dry and some of those close games will bend the other way.
Rashee Rice is now slated to miss six games, not four, and the Chiefs' pass-catching corps is a dangerous combination of unavailable, old (Travis Kelce) or just plain inexperienced. This isn't the offensive buzzsaw of yesteryear, the O-line is riddled with question marks. Even minor defensive regression could put the Chiefs in a bind.
Meanwhile... don't look now, but the Broncos are the real deal.
Kirk Cousins will finish the season as Falcons' QB1
The Atlanta Falcons benched Kirk Cousins down the stretch of last season in year one of a three-year, $180 million contract, which set off the Michael Penix Jr. era far earlier than anybody expected. Now, Atlanta has propped Penix up as the clear QB of the present and the future, relegating Cousins to lucrative backup duties.
After an offseason full of trade rumors, however, Cousins still lurks on the depth chart, ready to pounce at the slightest sign of weakness. He should be healthier. He should be more comfortable in the Falcons' offense. And, if things go south, few teams are under more pressure to deliver a winning season than Atlanta right now.
The Falcons have poured so many resources into this offense. Penix should be set up for success, but we've seen Atlanta squander the talent advantage time and time again. Penix has his shortcomings. He's not super mobile outside the pocket and he tends to lean on his big arm, to the point where intermediate passes can sail too far or just phase out of his repertoire altogether for extended stretches.
Cousins has a winning pedigree and years of starting experience. He's also being paid like a starter. If the Falcons start slow and feel like Penix needs a bit more time, don't be shocked if Cousins steps back up to the controls and wins the job — at least for this season.
The Eagles won't win the NFC East
The Chiefs and the Eagles won't win their division!? Come on, Christopher. Those are the two best teams in the NFL.
Sure. On paper. Every sportsbook pegs Philly and Kansas City as co-favorites to win the Super Bowl, or something close to it. And maybe that's true. But there's a difference between winning the division and winning it all.
Every quote out of Eagles camp was a resounding example of how to leave success in the past and focus on the present. We know Jalen Hurts is locked in to a borderline psychotic degree. But post-Super Bowl malaise is a thing. We've even seen it from Kansas City to varying extents in the past, even if the switch is always flipped in the postseason.
Washington has an improved roster and a potential MVP candidate at quarterback. The Giants made serious gains on defense. The Cowboys will hopefully be healthy this season (okay, we can rule out the Cowboys). Meanwhile, we should expect natural regression from Saquon Barkley after such an onerous individual campaign. The defense isn't a bulletproof. The Eagles are not invincible. Far from it. Nick Sirianni always seems to oscillate between dominance and aimlessness season-to-season anyway.
Philly is a very, very good team. They will make the playoffs and be a threat. But it wouldn't be shocking if the Eagles were an intimidating Wild Card team, rather than the clear frontrunners.
The Cardinals are going to win the NFC West
All eyes are on the Rams and Seahawks, and understandably so. But Los Angeles is another year older and Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a mysterious injury situation. Meanwhile, the Seahawks basically scrapped their entire roster and rebuilt from scratch. Sam Darnold was awesome in Minnesota, but he won't have the same infrastructure in Seattle. Klint Kubiak is a good playcaller, but his scheme does not always align with Darnold's big-play tendencies.
If Darnold regresses and Los Angeles hits a brick wall, the Arizona Cardinals will be there to pick up the slack. Kyler Murray generally gets tossed aside in conversations around the best NFL quarterbacks, but he's still a major talent with a uniquely valuable two-way skill set. Marvin Harrison has a full season under his belt, and the offense in general should be more explosive.
Arizona's defense was middling at best last season, but the Rams allowed more yards and Seattle's superiority was only marginal. Jonathan Gannon has built elite defenses in the past and, provided good health, the Cardinals could shock folks this season.
AFC West will produce three postseason teams
The AFC West is quietly one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. While we all know the Chiefs are going to find themselves in the postseason, we can't put them in Sharpie as the No. 1 seed. As mentioned before, there are too many variables around Mahomes. God forbid if he has to miss a few games due to injury.
So let's say the Chiefs are a Wild Card team. The Broncos are best positioned to challenge Kansas City for the division crown. Bo Nix was extremely impressive as a rookie and Sean Payton, after initial skepticism, proved last season that has still has his fastball.
Then we get to the Chargers and the Raiders. L.A. won 11 games last season. Las Vegas completely remade the roster in the image of Pete Carroll, one of the NFL's most accomplished coaches. It's hard for four teams to play each twice and all crack the postseason, but the West is more than capable of spitting out three contenders this winter. Whether it's the upstart Raiders or the old-school, grind-it-out Chargers... that remains to be seen.
The Dolphins will fire Mike McDaniel midseason
The Miami Dolphins are an extremely talented bunch and Mike McDaniel has proven that his teams can win a lot of games — at least in the regular season. However, after a snakebitten and severely underwhelming 2024 campaign, the vibes are off in South Beach.
Tyreek Hill's relationship with McDaniel (as well as QB Tua Tagovailoa) has noticeably deteriorated after a failed trade request and multiple ill-advised offseason comments. The defense is a work in progress. Tagovailoa, for all his prodigious output over the years, remains an extremely limited quarterback.
So much of Miami's offensive success is determined by timing and execution. Everyone needs to be on the same page, operating in cohesive harmony. That really doesn't feel like it's happening right now. The Dolphins were the subject of several negative training camp reviews. It really feels like the wheels are coming off.
McDaniel is respected as a playcaller, but if he has lost the locker room, Miami — a team will immediate expectations — won't hesitate to pull the plug and move in a new direction if the season starts on a sour note.
Caleb Williams will finish top five in MVP voting
After yet another letdown in 2024, the Chicago Bears underwent a transformative offseason. They hired Ben Johnson, the NFL's most acclaimed up-and-coming playcaller, to run the show. They poured countless resources, financial and otherwise, into an already-solid defense. The offensive line improved. And now, for the first time in a while, it feels like Chicago might actually live up to — even exceed — expectations in 2025.
A lot is riding on the shoulders of Caleb Williams, who underwhelmed as a rookie after winning over NFL scouts as the consensus No. 1 overall prospect. Many called him the best QB to enter the NFL in years. Williams lost Rookie of the Year to Jayden Daniels (and Bo Nix). He led the NFL in sacks and counterbalanced displays of immense talent with frustrating miscues as the Bears' offense ran off track.
Lest we forget, however, there was a point last season when Chicago was 4-2. The season began on a high note, but ended with a thud. Now, the Bears are freed from the shackles of Matt Eberflus, with Johnson set to engineer his uniquely dynamic scheme around Williams, whose athleticism and raw talent has never been in doubt.
If Williams can take a step as a processor, it's all going to fall into place. Chicago will aim to get the ball out more quickly and set up Williams for quick, easy hits, without sacrificing his unique ability to scramble, extend plays, and uncork the occasional deep ball. If Williams actualizes his talent in year two and Chicago makes a meaningful leap in the standings, we could start to see Williams live up to the lofty expectations set for him coming out of USC.
There's a reason Johnson waited and practically hand-picked the Bears job after such a successful run in Detroit. Don't be shocked if Williams puts up massive numbers, Chicago rockets in the postseason conversation, and at year's end, we're talking about the sophomore quarterback as one of the very best in the sport.