The Indianapolis Colts face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon in what is arguably the most consequential game of the season for both teams. Indy leads the AFC South at 8-2, with a chance to cement its status as a contender. Kansas City is 5-5, in danger of falling below .500 and even further out of the postseason picture, which would be unfamiliar territory for Patrick Mahomes and company.
Daniel Jones will be under the microscope the most of all in Week 12. The Colts newcomer has enjoyed by far the best individual campaign of his career in 2025, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 2,659 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions across 10 starts. The Colts' offense is the most efficient and consistent in football right now, but the Chiefs are a litmus test for Indianapolis' Super Bowl dreams.
Daniel Jones' rebuilt reputation on the line in critical AFC showdown against Chiefs
Jones has not only launched himself into the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks this season. He has completely rejuvenated a Colts team that felt dead in the water before his arrival. Shane Steichen began the season on arguably the hottest seat in the NFL. Now, he's a frontrunner for Coach of the Year, Jonathan Taylor has unlocked MVP productivity, and this offense seems to deliver in every big moment.
At 0.22 EPA (estimated points added) per play, Jones ranks third in the NFL among regular starting quarterbacks. He only trails Drake Maye, the MVP favorite in New England, and the notoriously explosive Jordan Love in Green Bay.
Jones has refined his approach to an almost absurd degree. He's surgically picking apart even the best defenses in the NFL, able to process the field at warp speed and thread the needle to his receivers before the defense even has a chance to collapse the pocket. His sack rate (5.83 percent) sits well below other top quarterbacks, such as Maye (9.05 percent), Josh Allen (7.22 percent) or Jalen Hurts (8.23 percent).
Jones has kept his turnovers at bay and vastly improved his decision-making, all while ratcheting up his aggression — and his confidence. He's not playing scared, like he did in those late Giants games. It's a testament to the power of a change of scenery.
Now the rubber meets the road. The honeymoon period is over and Jones' success has led to a rapid boom in expectations. The Colts are no longer the plucky underdogs or a nice feel-good story. This team is supposed to win high-profile matchups and separate from a competitive AFC field.
The Chiefs, even at 5-5, boast one of the NFL's most explosive offenses, led by an indomitable winner in Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has earned the benefit of the doubt, to the point where even at 5-5, this team feels like a critical litmus test for every wannabe AFC champ. Folks won't stop believing in the Chiefs until someone actually dethrones them.
Indianapolis can't stomp out Kansas City's postseason dreams on Sunday, but the Colts can make the path a heck of a lot more complicated. On the other hand, if the Colts lay an egg, folks will begin to question if Jones really has what it takes to lead Indianapolis to the promised land.
Daniel Jones has never needed a signature performance more
The Chiefs' aging defensive core has become a major talking point in recent weeks, but Kansas City is still the NFL's fourth-best defense in points allowed. Steve Spagnuolo remains undeterred in his tactical brilliance as a defensive coordinator. The Chiefs will spam a variety of blitzes and mix up personnel packages to keep Jones guessing. Can he weather the storm? Or does the pressure of the moment — and the pressure of Kansas City's defense — finally get to him?
Averaging 396.9 total yards and 32.1 points per game, the Colts' offense is the best in the NFL. Indianapolis has wins over Denver, Atlanta and LAC, all excellent defensive units. Everything points to this being not only a winnable game, but a defining statement for the Colts. And for Danny Dimes, who can put a lot of lingering doubts to bed with a dominant performance on Sunday afternoon.
It's only natural for Jones to face the burden of proof. Sure, he's been awesome this season. But after so many years of abject struggle in New York, it can be hard to buck the skepticism of those who watched him flounder, week-in and week-out, as a Giant. Until he can perform in enough primetime games, and until Indianapolis tastes legitimate postseason success, there will those wondering if Jones is merely a flash in the pan. Or worse, a fraud. A false flag distracting us from the "real" AFC heavyweights.
Jones' postseason opportunity will arrive eventually, but for now, all he can do is take the opportunity in front of him — the opportunity to out-duel Patrick Mahomes and plunge the three-time reigning AFC champs below .500 with only six games left on the docket.
This is a fork in the road for Jones and his redemption arc. If the Colts win and Jones looks like he has for the majority of 2025, NFL fans across the spectrum will start to really believe in Indianapolis. A loss, and a letdown from Jones, just means he has more to prove down the stretch and, potentially, in the playoffs. For all we know, this is merely a preview of an even more high-stakes matchup a couple months down the road.