Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The 2024 NFL Draft class faces critical 2026 seasons that will determine whether teams exercise their fifth-year options down the road.
- Several first-round picks must elevate their play to avoid bust labels and secure long-term futures with their original teams.
- The pressure is especially high for JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr., who have yet to meet early expectations or stay healthy.
It’s crazy to think the 2024 NFL Draft class is already shaping its future. Although there are still two more years left before fifth-year options come into play, it’s never too early to look at the players in that class who could — or rather, couldn’t — be receiving their fifth-year option.
For guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Penix Jr., there's a whole lot to prove if they expect their teams to bring them back on the fifth-year option. For JJ McCarthy, well he's simply the biggest question mark of the draft class. Here’s who else is on the watchlist as the 2024’s pivotal third season looms.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the NFL as a legacy player and with a whole lot of hype around him. Not only is he legacy thanks to his Hall of Fame dad, Marvin Harrison Sr., but legacy from a long lineage of Ohio State wide receivers who have terrorized the NFL. The younger Harrison has played well below his expectations and is fighting the bust allegations nearly every week. That has to change this year, regardless of who his quarterback is if he wants to get his fifth-year option.
Although he did play five fewer games in 2025 than he did his rookie season, he dropped off from an otherwise promising start to his NFL career. Yes, the Arizona Cardinals have major questions at quarterback that were amplified with Kyler Murray’s release. That said, good receivers know how to mask quarterback inconsistencies. I think Harrison will ultimately get his fifth-year option picked up, but he has to play well above expectations in 2026.
QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. is coming off another ACL injury with his replacement already getting prep. The Atlanta Falcons were swift to replace Kirk Cousins with Tua Tagovailoa. Whether Penix is ready Week 1 or not, he won’t have the luxury of slacking this year. The Falcons already have his replacement in house so if things continue to look bad, they have no reason to pay him for a fifth season.
He has yet to play a full season and hasn’t thrown for more than 2,000 yards in either of his first two seasons. Simply put, Penix is unreliable, both when he’s healthy and when it comes to his health. Tagovailoa isn’t much better, but the Falcons signed him for a reason. He’s insurance if things don’t get much better under Penix. There have been way too many comeback stories for first round quarterbacks that have drifted into the bust realm. There’s a market for Penix, but it won’t be a promising one if he doesn’t look like a top 10 pick in 2026.
QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
Ah, the biggest question mark of the 2024 NFL Draft class. Everything feels like this won’t just be J.J. McCarthy’s last season in Minnesota, but subsequently his last chance to earn his fifth-year option. The Vikings signed Murray this offseason, and he’s projected to be the Week 1 starter. Things have been bad for McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season due to injury and nearly lost the starting job last year to Carson Wentz.
My guess is McCarthy doesn’t play this year unless he gets traded or Murray gets hurt. He’s the most likely player on this list to not get his fifth-year option picked up. That said, anything is possible. Murray does have injury issues so if McCarthy does get to play, the margin of error is thin. Like Penix, if things don’t work out with the team that drafted him, there’s several quarterback-needy teams that would take a chance on him simply because he was a first round pick and national champion.
WR Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers have needed offensive weapons for years. They thought Xavier Legette was going to be that player, but he just hasn’t turned into the weapon for Bryce Young the Panthers would have hoped. That’s why he needs to stand out this season or he’ll end up a free agent after his fourth season. He hasn’t reached 500 receiving yards in either of his first two seasons and hasn’t had more than 50 receptions.
It’s not that Carolina can’t find a way to get him the ball, it’s that he’s not impactful once he has it. That’s why if he can’t find a role with this offense, he won’t be around after the 2027 season. The Panthers don’t need role players in their receiving core, they need playmakers. Legette was supposed to be that and it’s quickly becoming apparent he’s not the player they hoped he’d be.
CB Terrion Arnold, Detroit Lions
It was a bad 2025 season for Terrion Arnold. Sure, he collected his first career NFL interception, but he also had a 52.6 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, which ranked 92nd out of 114 qualified players. That’s not good at all. For a team that needs good secondary play as the defensive line tries to find its identity, Arnold has to be better than this in 2026, especially as a first round pick. He also ranked 68th in opposing quarterback QBR (88.6).
The Lions will probably want to see it through with Arnold, since he was a first-round pick and he still has two years to prove he can be their franchise cornerback. That said, those two years will be paramount to his future in Detroit. As of now, he’s closer to Jeff Okudah’s fate than he is playing his first five seasons in Detroit with a lengthy extension attached.
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