Ranking NFL MVP candidates by fantasy football impact: Stafford isn't a guarantee

The NFL MVP race usually isn't this wide-open 13 weeks into a season. After years of cycling through Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, the field has opened up considerably. Lamar got hurt early in the season, while Mahomes and Allen are both on teams struggling to live up to lofty preseason expectations.

That has cleared the runway for new and exciting candidates, with 37-year-old Matthew Stafford, against all odds, emerging as a potential frontrunner. Fantasy football owners aren't getting as much from their Stafford investment as Los Angeles Rams fans, however, and Sunday's loss to Carolina was a notable setback for L.A. Whether any of that actually matters in the MVP race remains to be seen.

NFL MVP candidates ranked by PPR fantasy points

Here are the NFL's top 15 leaders in PPR fantasy points per game, according to ESPN. This list excludes those who don't have the games played or the overall production to realistically compete for NFL awards consideration, such as Rashee Rice, Jameis Winston and Drake London.

Who here can realistically win the NFL MVP award?

PPR points can win your fantasy league, but there's a difference between stacking fantasy points and competing for MVP. A lot of it is positional "bias," or perhaps the acceptance of basic football reality. It depends on your point of view. That said, quarterbacks tend to hold the upper hand over skill positions when it comes to MVP voters. Quarterbacks are tasked with shepherding the heard. They touch the football on virtually every play. A great wideout typically requires a certain caliber of quarterback to deliver him the football. A dominant run game does not flourish without a strong enough passing attack to keep the opposing defense from selling out.

That said, only a handful of skill players can (realistically) claim even a remote shot at winning the NFL's top individual award. Offensive Player of the Year is a different beast, often reserved for the NFL's most productive running back or receive. But MVP is typically a quarterback's award.

Last season, Saquon Barkley set multiple rushing records and essentially forced his way into the MVP debate. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is attempting to mount a similar case this time around. He faces less competition than Barkley did a year ago, but he's still not the frontrunner — more proof of the challenges non-QBs face. Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in touches (322) and yards from scrimmage (1,655), not to mention fantasy points. And yet he's even further from the top of most ballots.

Here is how the MVP odds currently shape up, per DraftKings.

Is Matthew Stafford still the MVP favorite after Rams' Week 13 loss?

The Rams were granted an opportunity to extend their lead in the NFC on Sunday, but instead lost 31-28 on the road to the Carolina Panthers. Matthew Stafford completed 18-of-28 passes for 243 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions — doubling his INT total on the season, now four. He also lost a fumble.

Stafford still leads the NFL in touchdowns and touchdown percentage, plus the Rams are hardly in a dire spot at 9-3. This is an incredibly dynamic offense that simply ran into a quality Panthers team in a bad week. Carolina has been on an upswing all season and now sits a mere half-game behind Tampa Bay in the NFC South, so don't let reputation fool you. These Panthers are not the pushovers of old.

While this wasn't exactly the expected outcome, it's not a bad loss. Carolina performs well at home (4-2 in Charlotte this season) and even the best teams hit a bump in the road occasionally. Nobody in Los Angeles should be panicking.

As for Stafford and his MVP chances, the wily veteran still outclasses Drake Maye (21 TD, 6 INT), Josh Allen (18 TD, 9 INT), Jordan Love (19 TD, 3 INT) and other MVP-caliber quarterbacks in the majority of basic statistical categories. The Rams' offense as a whole is eighth in estimated points added (EPA) per play, but second in success rate. Few units are more efficient across the board.

Stafford has earned his status as MVP frontrunner, although Maye in particular does have an equally compelling case. There are still five more games on the docket, of course, so much can change and very little is settled. The former Super Bowl champ will need to finish the campaign strong to avoid fumbling away the gold, but Stafford is in a better position than anyone could've imagined coming into his 17th NFL season.

Biggest dark horse threats to Matthew Stafford's MVP candidacy

New England Patriots QB Drake Maye is the clear runner-up, or even co-frontrunner, depending on your persuasion. The Patriots are 10-2 in advance of Monday night's showdown with the New York Giants, on the surface an imminently winnable game. Just last season, the Patriots were in the NFL doldrums. All of a sudden, New England feels like a Super Bowl contender. With a fresh face and a strong narrative, Maye presents a credible challenge to Stafford — not only statistically, but as a story. We know voters love a story.

That said, here are the other MVP long-shots threatening to unseat Stafford with a strong finish to the campaign:

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are 6-5-1 after beating Philadelphia and Kansas City in back-to-back weeks. The defense has finally found stable footing, in turn giving Dak Prescott and Dallas' offensive buzzsaw a chance to inflict and sustain major damage. Prescott has 25 TDs and a 69.3 percent completion rate. The Cowboys, blessed with two elite wideouts, can generate explosive plays seemingly at will. If Dallas continues this surge and sneaks into the postseason — or god forbid, passes Philly in the NFC East — Prescott will have his supporters.

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

After a heroic, MVP-esque performance to will Kansas City to victory over the Colts in Week 12, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs fell flat — and fell to .500 — in their Thanksgiving loss to Dallas. The Chiefs are in real danger of missing the playoffs, but we know what Mahomes is capable of with his back against the wall. If the Chiefs rally behind a few vintage outings from the three-time champ, he'll have the reputation, and the résumé, to challenge Stafford.

QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

After a statement win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, the Packers get another chance at a statement victory next week against the first-place Bears. Jordan Love only has three interceptions through 12 weeks, the best mark in the NFL for a full-time starter. That speaks to his impressive maturation as a decision-maker under duress.

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Again, it's hard for non-QBs to earnestly compete for this award, but Jonathan Taylor has at least put his name in the conversation. With 1,282 rushing yards and 304 receiving yards through 12 games, Taylor is on a historic path. He has struggled (relatively) in Indy's recent losses to Kansas City and Houston, but those are two of the best run defenses in the NFL. Taylor should bounce back, as will the Colts' supercharged offense.