Predicting when Fernando Mendoza and the 2026 QB class will start their first games

The last time we didn't have a rookie quarterback starting in Week 1 of the NFL season? 2022. Before that? 2007. Usually, teams that take a quarterback early go ahead and throw them into the fire, but there's a good chance that isn't the case in 2026.

Despite being drafted with the No. 1 overall pick, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza is largely expected to open the season as the No. 2 quarterback for the team, though he has to start at some point, right? Let's try to figure out that point.

Fernando Mendoza - Las Vegas Raiders

After the bye week

I completely understand the impulse to start Kirk Cousins. He's still a solid NFL quarterback despite how his time with the Atlanta Falcons went, and the Las Vegas Raiders will probably be a better team with him under center than with Mendoza. With that said, though, it would be a terrible move for the team not to get Mendoza out on the field after the bye week. (Barring an unusually early bye.)

It's important to get an early sense of what to expect from your young quarterback. That doesn't have to be Week 1, and I agree with Vegas trying to take things slow here, but it does needs to be at some point in the season, and as long as Cousins doesn't have the Raiders in playoff contention, there's no point sticking with him past a certain point.

And the idea that the Raiders would be a playoff team seems absurd, right? They're the clear worst team in the AFC West entering the season — assuming the Chiefs get Patrick Mahomes back early enough — and trying to take a win-now approach by starting Cousins all year is sacrificing the future to...maybe try to sneak into a wild-card spot? Mendoza will get the call after the bye.

Ty Simpson - Los Angeles Rams

Week 18, if the Rams have nothing to play for

Matthew Stafford is the starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams.

...

Okay, I'm sure if I left this section this short, I'd get a note back from my editor that was like, "Justin, dude, you have to write more than that," so let's expand on this.

Yes, the Rams took a quarterback in the first round, but they did so in search of a succession plan once Stafford hangs it up, which could be as soon as the end of the 2026 season. For now, though, the Rams are Super Bowl contenders, and Simpson is going to spend all of the season on the bench.

The only way we see him? If the Rams have meaningless games at the end of the season. I suppose that could mean the Rams being eliminated from the playoffs and deciding with Stafford not to play him in games once that happens, but the more likely scenario is that the Rams clinch a playoff spot early and have nothing in play by Week 18. In that case, resting Stafford to keep him healthy for the postseason and seeing what Simpson can do is a solid plan.

Carson Beck - Arizona Cardinals

Depends on when the bye week is

I think things will be such a disaster for the Arizona Cardinals that Carson Beck will get an opportunity to play in 2026, but because he'll have to pass two guys on the depth chart, the timing is likely to be a little weird.

If Arizona ends up with an early bye, I'd expect that to be a chance for the team to see if switching from Jacoby Brissett to Gardner Minshew is a good call, and then when it becomes clear it isn't, Beck could get his shot maybe...three or four games after the bye?

But if Arizona ends up with a late bye, it's possible that Beck is named the starter immediately following the bye, even if that means bypassing Minshew. My thought process here is this: Arizona isn't going to want to play Beck in the first half of the season simply because they'll have some delusions of success happening, but once it becomes clear this team is headed for a high draft pick, you might as well throw Beck out and see if he can be the team's future. The answer to that is likely "no," especially heading into a 2027 NFL Draft full of intriguing quarterback options, but it'd be good to at least know before then if Beck can be part of the Cardinals future, even if it's as a backup.

Cade Klubnik - New York Jets

As soon as it becomes clear Geno Smith isn't bouncing back

The New York Jets enter 2026 with Geno Smith under center, while rookie Cade Klubnik will battle with Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe for the backup role. For a team whose best shot at ever getting out of the NFL gutter is to earn a top draft pick or to magically find a young starting quarterback with upside, there's no reason not to name Klubnik as the No. 2 quarterback to start the season, and then to have a fairly short leash on Smith.

Based on Smith's fall off in 2025, there's a good chance his career was being artificially boosted by the personnel around him in Seattle. Just compare the last two seasons.

Smith's turnover concerns are especially troubling, and there's no reason to think a guy who has thrown 32 of them in the past two seasons and is set to turn 36 years old in October is going to suddenly cut those turnover issues out. He won't be long for this job, and then...I mean, you have to go with Klubnik, right?

Because if you go with Cook instead, you're just wasting time. As a rookie, the former Missouri quarterback completed just 57.5 percent of his passes, throwing two touchdowns to seven interceptions. He was sacked 19 times in five games played, There's just no way that the Jets can justify playing Cook over Klubnik unless the practice tape on Klubnik just looks awful.

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