The Miami Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa down the stretch in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers, which marked the unofficial end of Tagovailoa's South Beach tenure. Only a year into his massive four-year, $212.4 million contract, Tagovailoa lost the faith of even Mike McDaniel, once his staunchest defender. While McDaniel is gone, with Jeff Hafley brought in to coach the team moving forward, it's clear Miami would love to cut bait on Tagovailoa's contract.
That is easier said than done, of course, as Tagovailoa's value has plummeted and that contract is a gigantic sunk cost. Not many teams are lining up to pay the former first-round pick another $150 million, give or take. In fact... no teams are. Let me put that dream to bed right now. So, how can Miami move on without completely wrecking its finances? There is no simple answer.
Which path will the Dolphins take with Tua Tagovailoa?
The Dolphins can simply cut him
The Denver Broncos ate $85 million in dead cap to dispel Russell Wilson a few years back. It set up the Bo Nix era a year later and Denver is now a prime Super Bowl contender in the AFC, despite the financial strain. Miami would need to swallow $99 million in guaranteed money in order to cut Tagovailoa.
Contract Year | Base Salary | Cap Hit | Cap % |
|---|---|---|---|
2026 | $39 million | $56.2 million | 18.54 |
2027 | $31 million | $53.4 million | 16.76 |
2028 | $41.4 million | $65.8 million | 19.67 |
That is certainly not the ideal outcome, but it's certainly the easiest path forward — the path of least resistance, so to speak. It does not require finding a willing trade partner, who'd still require the Dolphins to absorb a significant chunk of Tagovailoa's salary. It also means Miami can get him out of camp, out of the locker room, as quickly as possible, to avoid the potential for lingering tension.
In the end, this might be the most realistic exit ramp for Miami. That extension was a huge misfire. It leaves the Dolphins in an impossible spot. Even if cutting him does not alleviate their books in the short term, it would allow Miami to hit the reset button and move full-steam ahead.
The Dolphins can trade him
No team will take on the entirety of Tagovailoa's remaining salary, even with a more favorable cut option next summer — and even if the Dolphins attach multiple draft picks to grease the wheels. The only way Tagovailoa gets dealt is if Miami is willing to accept pennies on the dollar while absorbing a healthy chunk of his contract.
Even if the financial benefits of a trade are ultimately negligible, the hope would be that Miami can recoup some value. That would require a team able and willing to start Tagovailoa, and thus sacrifice actual assets, but it's within the realm of possibility.
The Dolphins can also... keep him?
Here's the rub. Miami A) will have a difficult time finding takers and B) does not have a clear succession plan at quarterback, unless there is extreme organizational confidence in seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers. While keeping Tagovailoa could be awkward, especially at first, he still represents a time-proven path to playing winning football. Miami has accomplished a lot with Tagovailoa under center.
There's a world in which Miami takes a quarterback like Trinidad Chambliss (if he's there) or Ty Simpson in the upcoming NFL Draft. But this is a weak QB class outside of Fernando Mendoza, who won't fall past Las Vegas with the No. 1 pick. There is no clear franchise quarterback available to Miami, only a full-time Ewers promotion or a stopgap free agent in the Kirk Cousins vein.
Unless Miami wants to get real spicy and cough up a major contract for Daniel Jones coming off of an Achilles tear, the viable alternatives are sparse. Many would (rightly) argue that Miami should rebuild anyways — take the patient approach and whatnot. But, knowing how this business works, keeping Tagovailoa and trying to sneak into the Wild Card race with a new head coach is not completely off the table.
GM Jon-Eric Sullivan admitted as much after a recent meeting with the veteran quarterback.
“I don’t know what the future holds right now, and I told Tua that,” he said (h/t NY Post). “We’re working through some things. What I can tell you is that we’re gonna infuse competition into that room, whether Tua is part of the room, whether he’s not part of the room. We’re gonna infuse competition into that room, like we will do in every other position. Tua knows where we are. We’ve been very honest and upfront, and Tua also knows that he will be the first to know when we make a decision. So if Tua is the first to know, you guys can’t be the first to know, and I know that you respect and appreciate that.”
Can Tagovailoa salvage his career?
This past season was pretty brutal for Tagovailoa, who committed 15 interceptions and eight fumbles in 14 starts. After multiple concussions and various other ailments, Tagovailoa just did not look quite like himself. The southpaw has always been somewhat limited in terms of mobility and arm strength, but for years he picked apart even the best NFL defenses with surgical timing and pinpoint accuracy.
He's still reasonably efficient overall, completing 67.7 percent of his passes. In 2024, he led the NFL in completion percentage (72.9). The year before that, he led the NFL in passing yards (4,624). The year before that, in 2023, Tagovailoa posted the NFL's highest touchdown rate (6.3 percent). The man has put up numbers over the years. Say what you will about his postseason track record or the generally cool temperature of his reputation, but there's a reason Miami once believed it was smart to hand him north of $200 million.
How Tagovailoa looks without the Mike McDaniel machine will be utterly fascinating. Rebounding from last season's struggles is hard enough in a vacuum, but remove him from a playcaller who so instinctually believed in Tagovailoa, and who engineered the perfect system around him, and it's fair to wonder how exactly he fairs. Again, Tagovailoa does not win on pure talent. He's not roping 50-yard passes through a tight window or extending plays with his creativity. Tagovailoa needs to establish a rhythm, get the ball out quickly, and beat defenses on his first or second read.
He won't have Tyreek Hill next season either, and a move away from Miami would mean a breakup with Jaylen Waddle, too. So much of Miami's success has come down to incredibly fast receivers getting open and creating after the catch. If Tagovailoa does not have a schematic advantage or a personnel advantage, it becomes more difficult to imagine how exactly he restores his value — at least to the point where his contract sheds its current albatross status.
Most likely landing spots for Tua Tagovailoa
The favorite: Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta could use a Michael Penix facsimile as their third-year quarterback recovers from major knee surgery. Tagovailoa is also a lefty and presents many of the same hypothetical strengths and weaknesses, meaning he can run similar stuff. He'd give Atlanta a half-decent stopgap for half a season — or a full season — until Penix is ready to take command again. With Kirk Cousins gone, if Miami is willing to eat most of Tagovailoa's salary, it's hard to imagine a better situation for the once-celebrated quarterback. The Falcons are rife with talented playmakers and supported by a potentially dominant run game.
Other ideal fits: Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota and Indianapolis are both talented, postseason-caliber teams with offensive whiz kids on the sideline. Kevin O'Connell was essential to Sam Darnold's Super Bowl evolution. Shane Steichen's offense saw Daniel Jones blossom into a star (after his brief tenure under O'Connell in Minnesota). Tagovailoa needs a sharp scheme, with big playmakers on the perimeter and a solid run game to complement him. Minnesota and Indianapolis both check those boxes. The Vikings are questioning JJ McCarthy's future. The Colts might lose Danny Dimes — and he's hurt for a while regardless. You can see the fit both ways.
Other QB-needy teams: Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals
Plenty of teams would welcome a veteran QB with Tagovailoa's track record of production. Tagovailoa might not get a guaranteed starting spot anywhere, but he's worthy competition in a younger QB room or a viable stopgap for those dealing with injured starters.
That said, Tagovailoa's success feels more dependent on scheme and personnel than your average Pro Bowl QB. He turned it over 23 times last season as Miami battled through injuries and saw its on-field chemistry combust. Putting him on the Jets or Browns just feels like a recipe for disaster. Pittsburgh has a solid enough infrastructure, but that's an older roster with an increasingly middling track record. Is Tagovailoa really the solution to Aaron Rodgers' potential departure? Arizona has an exciting Sean McVay protégé at the helm in Mike LaFleur, but until the Cards are a bit more established, it's hard to paint them as a dream destination for Tua — especially since Arizona needs to solve its own QB burnout conundrum with Kyler Murray.
All these teams could hand Tagovailoa the opportunity he needs, but whether or not he finds success with any of these teams is another matter entirely.