It's another week in the NFL, with another wild slate of games on tap. Last week was the AFC's turn to take center stage, but though there are still some must-see matchups like Jaguars-Broncos and Patriots-Ravens lined up on Sunday, this week is the NFC's time to really shine.
Three of the NFC's four division feature showdowns between the first- and second-place teams, and their races couldn't be any closer. Both the Rams and Seahawks, and the Bucs and Panthers are tied, while the Bears hold a .5 game lead over the visiting Packers.
We'll be tackling all three of those games for this week's bold predictions that could actually happen, as well as one curveball that makes one game without playoff implications much more interesting.
The Rams find a way to get past the Seahawks again
There's a very good chance that Thursday night's game between the Rams and the Seahawks will end up determining the No. 1 seed and the bye in the NFC. Only the NFC North winner has a real chance to steal the top spot, but at 11-3, these teams are a cut above.
The Rams won the first matchup in Week 11 by a score of 21-19 in a competitive but uncharacteristic game for both teams. Sam Darnold gave the ball away four times in that one, but the normally explosive Rams offense was held to just 249 yards while converting just two of 11 third-down chances, barely hanging on in the end after jumping out to a 14-3 first-quarter lead.
That's the only game since Week 6 in which the Rams have scored fewer than 28 points, which is somewhat poetic since the Seahawks haven't allowed that many points since Week 5. In fact, that's the only time all year they've even allowed 24 points, which is a testament to just how dynamic Mike Macdonald's defense has been.
It looks like the Rams are going to be without Davante Adams for this one after he came up lame with a hamstring injury last week, and they may not get his services back until the playoffs. That will put even more heat on Puka Nacua to come up with big plays, and on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to move the chains on the ground.
Adams' injury, plus the fact that this game will be played at Lumen Field, should theoretically give the Seahawks the edge, but I'm still taking the Rams to find a way to win another close one. It can't be overstated just how horrendous Darnold was in the first meeting, and the Seattle offense managed only six field goals last week against a Colts defense that, frankly, isn't very good.
Without Adams, the Rams should lean even more heavily into big, multiple tight end sets. Corum has really emerged as a worthy complement to Williams, and no matter how many defenders are assigned to cover Puka, he's always going to get his. In the end, I trust Stafford and the Rams to finish a few drives. Darnold hasn't come through in big games, and I don't see why he'll start now.
The Bears finally win a meaningful game against the Packers
The rivalry between the Bears and the Packers may be the NFL's oldest, but that's not necessarily a good thing. Old things go stale, and that's what's happened to this rivalry in the past three decades as the Packers have tortured their southern neighbors again and again.
Lovie Smith is the only Bears coach in recent memory to have had any success against the Cheeseheads, and even he only finished his career 8-11 after beginning it 7-3. Sadly, that counts as a success for the Bears since every other coach has been trounced so badly.
Ben Johnson came into Halas Hall with a lot of confidence, and like many before him, he spoke about beating the Packers. In his first chance though, he couldn't quite get it done as the Bears mounted a valiant comeback two weeks ago in Lambeau Field that fell just short.
Despite that loss, Johnson has completely changed the culture for this entire franchise, to where fans now actually believe that good things are coming. The Bears have been the biggest surprise in the league, and after briefly giving up the division lead, they grabbed it right back this past weekend by spanking the Browns as the Packers lost to the Broncos.
What's changed since these two teams met on Dec. 7? A lot, actually. For one thing, this matchup will take place at Soldier Field, where the Bears haven't lost since Week 1. For another, edge-rushing terror Micah Parsons is out for the year after tearing his ACL against the Broncos last week. Christian Watson, who torched the Bears for two touchdowns in the first meeting, is questionable after injuring his chest and shoulder on Sunday.
According to Greg Braggs Jr. of CHGO Sports, teams that played the Broncos the previous week are 3-10 this season, while teams that just played the Bears are only 2-10-1. The Packers have now played both in back-to-back weeks, and this game is on Saturday, giving them short rest after playing at altitude on Sunday. That's a bad recipe for any team, let alone one that has to drastically alter its game plan after losing its most destructive defensive force and possibly its top receiving option.
When Bears linebacker D'Marco Jackson was given a game ball for his performance against the Browns, he told the team he still had a bad taste in his mouth from the Packers game. Talk is cheap, but this Bears team believes. The running game is among the best in the league, and without Parsons chasing him, Caleb Williams should be able to add to his growing list of wow plays. Nobody could have seen this at the outset of the season, but the Bears are going to win this game and get within one game of clinching the division.
Quinn Ewers makes his case for next season
The Dolphins have played some surprisingly good football since falling to 1-6 on the year, but after last week's loss to the Steelers, their remote playoff chances are officially done. They're set to host the Bengals this week, and what on paper looks like it could just be a game with two teams playing out the string has instead turned into something more interesting now that Tua Tagovailoa has been benched in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers.
Ewers was taken with the 231st pick in April's draft. While expectations normally wouldn't be very high for a seventh-round rookie, he's the guy who kept Arch Manning on the bench for a season and led Texas to the College Football Playoff semifinals. He'll also get the chance to go against a dreadful Bengals defense that could make anyone look good.
Ewers has a real chance to give himself a shot at being the Dolphins' 2026 Week 1 starter, and it begins now. The team is clearly ready to move on from Tua, and in De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller, Ewers is surrounded by weapons to help him out. Waddle is dealing with a slew of minor injuries, but after missing one play against the Steelers, he came right back in. He should be good to go on Sunday.
As of Wednesday, the Dolphins have the 11th pick in next year's draft, and they're unlikely to move up more than one spot, even if they lose out. That'll make it tough to land someone like Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza or Oregon's Dante Moore unless they trade up.
The Bengals are giving up 245 yards per game through the air this year, and that number would no doubt be higher if they weren't also last in the league in rushing yards allowed. Only four teams have recorded fewer sacks, which should give Ewers plenty of time to operate and go through his reads. Mike McDaniel should also give him some chances to throw it downfield, something that's been conspicuously absent from this offense in the Tua era.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense was shut out by the Ravens last week. I expect them to unleash hell on the Dolphins, but Ewers will make enough plays and put up enough stats to hang around in a shootout, while at the same time making people wonder if he deserves a shot to start next year.
The Panthers take control of the NFC South
Does anybody want to win the NFC South? It really doesn't seem like it, as the Bucs and Panthers are engaged in a game of hot potato with the division lead. Tampa gave it up by losing five of six, including last week's game in which they allowed Kyle Pitts turn into Tony Gonzalez for 60 minutes. Then the Panthers gave it back by somehow getting swept by the Saints.
This game is a battle between the movable object and the resistable force, because somebody is going to have to win and finally take control of the division (we think). Hopefully fans enjoy it, because they'll run it back in Week 18.
Last week's loss to the Saints notwithstanding, the Panthers have been playing better football for a while now, and I believe they'll find a way to win this one. Their only home losses have been to the Bills and Saints, and two weeks ago they shocked the world by knocking off the Rams. Bryce Young outdueled Matthew Stafford with three touchdowns in that one, and the defense forced three Rams turnovers.
Carolina has also done a great job of bouncing back from losses. The last time they lost two in a row was back in Weeks 1 and 2, so it stands to reason that they'll recover quickly from this past Sunday's defeat.
The Bucs have been banged up all year. It's finally caught up with them, as they haven't outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter since Week 8, which is coincidentally also the last time they won on the road. Todd Bowles is suddenly on the hot seat after a 6-2 start, which is something nobody saw coming. Baker Mayfield was the MVP frontrunner then. That seems like a long time ago.
After what Bijan Robinson did to the Bucs defense last week, Rico Dowdle is primed for a big game. He'll help the Panthers control the clock. Bryce Young has never beaten the Bucs, but there's a first time for everything. The Bucs can all but wrap up the division with a win on Sunday. They're not going to get one.