The Houston Texans came into Sunday's AFC Divisional Round showdown against the New England Patriots as a popular upset pick. Equipped with the No. 1 defense in the NFL, Houston appeared uniquely capable of putting a stopper in Drake Maye and the explosive Pats offense.
For the most part, the defense did its job. But it's difficult — actually, damn near impossible — to keep a team off the scoreboard when your own offense coughs up five turnovers. A Woody Marks fumble and four CJ Stoud interceptions doomed the Texans on the road. Now, after another postseason whimper, Houston has a difficult decision to make regarding its 24-year-old quarterback.
Has C.J. Stroud earned the top-dollar a QB extension would command?
Stroud completed 42 percent of his passes in Sunday's loss, with four interceptions and just one touchdown. Now, with his third NFL season in the bag, Stroud is eligible for an extension — and now is typically the point when young franchise quarterbacks get their bag. Stroud, the 2023 Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowl quarterback, has the résumé of a bag-worthy QB. But should the Texans give him an extension?
Here are a few good reference points from recent history:
Name | Team | AAV | Total Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins | $53.1 million | $212.4 million |
Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | $53 million | $265 million |
Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | $55 million | $220 million |
Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | $46.1 million | $230.5 million |
Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | $55 million | $275 million |
There are certain obvious superstars — Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow — who can basically command an infinite salary and be worth the investment. Other veterans, such as Dak Prescott or Jared Goff, earn their big paydays over time. Stroud falls into a far more volatile bucket, though. He's a recent top pick who exploded onto the scene, but has since plateaued, raising questions about his future.
The table above features QBs from comparable backgrounds. The range of potential outcomes is vast. Miami and Arizona almost certainly regret their investments in Tagovailoa and Murray, who both accumulated injuries and never quite maximized their unique gifts. The Niners probably feel good enough about Brock Purdy, but Mac Jones came in this season and provided comparable value at a fraction of the price when Purdy got hurt. Trevor Lawrence's contract appeared to be aging like cheese on pavement until a new coach came in and resurrected him. Jordan Love worked through early peaks and valleys and has since emerged as a potential future MVP candidate.
The Texans can bank on Stroud's youth and upside. He's clearly talented. His rookie season was historic, truly. Did it set expectations way too high? Was it a flash in the pan? Maybe, but it did showcase what Stroud is capable of with the right supporting cast and the right offensive ecosystem. There's reason to believe that he can get back to that point. The man is 24. He's just getting started.
ESPN's Dan Graziano makes a critical point, though: there is very little incentive to rush into a binding, $250 million-plus contract.
"There's no reason to hurry here," he writes (h/t Sporting News). "Stroud is signed through 2026, and the Texans have a team option for 2027 that's a no-brainer to pick up. They could theoretically franchise-tag him in 2028 and 2029 if needed. Why not give it another year and see how he recovers from this and what improvements he makes to get back to playing the way he did as a rookie?"
Stroud almost certainly wants a new contract and that sweet, sweet pay raise as soon as possible. Often, for the sake of maintaining positive player relations, a front office will pay their quarterback the moment it's possible. But Stroud, after back-to-back postseason stinkers, really does not have the leverage to force Houston's hand. He can try to force a trade, to cause a stir, but that feels ill-advised. Houston can drag this out in a secure, intentional way — with an end goal of still paying Stroud, if he can showcase the necessary growth. That could end up serving as valuable motivation.
What options are at the Texans' disposal here?
Wait and see
This is the "correct" strategy, probably. The Texans can simply not extend Stroud, pick up his 2027 club option on the cheap, and then render their final extension decision in a year or two. Or three, or four, if Houston wants to weaponize the franchise tag. Hopefully a clear and easy resolution comes about well before franchise tagging enters the frame, but Stroud has work to do.
The Texans can learn their lesson from Tagovailoa and the Dolphins specifically. Sometimes early success in a pristine ecosystem does not provide the full picture of who are quarterback is or what he can accomplish. Stroud has been through adversity now. This team, on paper, has the bones of a contender. Does Stroud answer the call and blossom into the star Houston wants, or does he continue to bump up against his own limitations? Time will tell. And the Texans should let it.
Trade him
This... should not happen! To be clear. While it's more than fair to express reservations about Stroud after his letdown sophomore and junior campaigns, he has still led the Texans to three winning seasons and three straight postseason berths.
Stroud committed five fumbles (two lost) and an interception against Pittsburgh in the first round. Four interceptions against New England in the second round. Eight turnovers in two games is bad. But he commited only 10 turnovers all season in 14 regular season starts, so this was an aberation — not a continuation of trends.
At the end of the day, Stroud was efficient, he protected the football, and he led the Texans on a torrential win streak to end the season, all while ranking 12th in estimated points added per play. He is still a good quarterback, with ample room to sand the rough edges of his skill set.
Houston could get a lot for him in a trade, and use those assets to either draft a new QB or allocate the money to a free agent. Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins and other options exit. But for now, trading him would be shortsighted. The Texans need to proceed with patience and not act rashly, in one direction (paying him) or the other (trading him).