2024 Paris Olympics Men's Basketball: 5 non-USA teams that could win the gold medal

The 2024 Paris Olympics will host the most competitive men's 5x5 basketball tournament ever. Team USA is still the gold medal favorite, but plenty of teams are capable of taking them down. Basketball's growth as an international sport has led to two other countries having recent NBA MVP winners - Nikola Jokic with Serbia and Giannis Antetokounmpo with Greece -- and others having All-NBA First Team level players, such as Canada with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Teams have more NBA role players and even those countries that are still dependent on overseas professionals have seen those players grow as the game has gotten better across the globe. Team USA is bringing its most stacked roster ever to an Olympic tournament but for good reason, without this squad, they may fall short of their fifth straight gold medal. If Team USA is to come up short, here are five teams that could beat them to the gold medal in Paris.

5. Canada

Canada has 11 NBA players on its roster, All-NBA First teamer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Denver Nuggets star Jamal Murray, and the NBA's biggest villain Dillon Brooks. It's not the Hall of Fame crew of Team USA but it's more than enough for one hot shooting game to give them plenty of firepower to take them down.

At the 2023 FIBA World Cup, Canada took down Team USA for the bronze medal. Albeit, that was a very different Team USA squad but it was still the first blood drawn in what could be a legendary continental rivalry for years to come. Team USA took on Canada in a warm-up match for the Olympics and came out on top, and they didn't particularly play well either. There's a gap between these squads, but Team USA needs to execute to make sure they defeat their northern rivals should they meet at this summer's Olympics.

One of Canada's biggest problems at the Olympics is its strength of schedule. Led by new Brooklyn Nets head coach Jordi Fernandez, Canada has been drawn into Group A, also known as the Group of Death. It's them, Spain, Greece, and Australia. All four teams expect to compete for a medal here, maybe not gold, but all are worthy of grabbing the bronze. Canada is prone to stinkers. They lost an ugly game to Brazil at the 2023 FIBA World Cup and are capable of dropping one in group play. Every single group game they have will be a dog fight meaning by the time they face Team USA, they could be running out of gas.

The talent is there for Canada, but plenty of obstacles stand in their way and they'll need an A+ performance if they're to take down Team USA for the second summer in a row. Canada's road to gold will begin against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece on Saturday, July 27.

4. Serbia

Nikola Jokic is the best basketball player in the world, and he doesn't play for Team USA, he plays for Serbia, providing another potential foe that could take down Team USA this summer. Jokic on his own could be enough to beat anyone, but Serbia is more than just Jokic. Atlanta Hawks wing Bogdan Bogdanovic and Charlotte Hornets guard Vasilije Micic will join him as will Micic's former Hornets teammate Aleksej Pokusevski. An injury to Miami Heat forward Nikola Jovic has removed him from their Olympic squad but plenty of talent is ready to take his spot.

Aleksa Avramovic, who played a great game against Gilgeous-Alexander at last summer's FIBA World Cup semifinals will be back this summer, joined by Memphis Grizzlies stash Vanja Marinkovic, former Grizzlie Marko Guduric, Brooklyn Nets stash Nikola Milutinov, former two-month NBA journeyman Filip Petrusev, and plenty of elite pros with a strong understanding of what it takes to win big international games.

The big question for Serbia will be whether head coach Svetislav Pesic is prepared to feed the ball to Jokic as often as possible. International coaches like to distribute offense somewhat evenly. Simply put, they're not used to coaching players who are good enough to take nearly 30 shots in a game. A team effort might be best for Serbia in certain matchups, but if they're to take down Team USA their recipe for success will start with a big game from Jokic, and his teammates filling in as he draws more attention.

Serbia and Team USA have been drawn into Group C together and will face each other for their opening game on Sunday, July 28. The winner will likely win the group. They will also face Puerto Rico and South Sudan in the group stage.

3. France

The hosts are capable of winning the gold medal. Victor Wembanyama will be appearing in his first Olympic tournament for France and alongside Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert they may become the first Olympic team ever not to concede a field goal inside of 12 feet. Fellow 2023 first-round pick Bilal Coulibaly will join Wemby as well as NBA veteran Nico Batum.

As we've stated multiple times in our coverage, France's ability to get a gold medal will come down to their backcourt play. 31 year old Evan Fournier and 38-year-old Nando De Colo are still their best point guards and pick-and-roll operators. They will be tough to hide against Team USA or Canada for that matter. They've got the length, skill, and defensive acumen to cover for them but it won't be easy and even then, can they still help create enough offense for France to compete with the best?

The hosts will play their opening game on Saturday, July 27 against Brazil - an opponent they can't take lightly, Brazil is a feisty squad known for causing one upset in almost every tournament they play. They will also face Germany and Japan in group play. Head coach Vincent Collet and his squad will certainly have their eyes set on the gold medal, but even winning a second consecutive silver medal would be a great feat given the competition in front of them.

2. Germany

It's worth pointing out that Germany is the defending world champion, having beaten Serbia to capture the gold medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup. Sure, Team USA and Serbia didn't have their best squads but you can only beat who's in front of you. That's what Germany did, and the title of world champion is one they are currently wearing, and there's a chance they defend it.

Germany isn't loaded with elite NBA star power like some of the teams before them but they've got quality NBA starters and borderline stars, some role players, and a group of overseas professionals that fit together well to form a very balanced roster capable of beating anyone. Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner take on the bulk of the scoring responsibility and Bayern Munich guard Andreas Obst provides the deadeye shooting gravity to open the floor up for them.

Isaac Bonga, Oscar Da Silva, and Nick Weiler-Babb provide solid perimeter defense and their big-man rotations of Daniel Theis, Mo Wagner, Johannes Voigtmann, and Johannes Thiemann help control the backboards and clog the paint. Head coach Gordon Herbert knows how to optimize this group and when they're at their best, they should be feared.

Germany will open their Olympic tournament against Rui Hachimura and Japan on Saturday, July 27. They will also face France and Brazil in group play.

1. Greece

There's one reason Greece is on this list: Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Greek Freak, the one-man fastbreak, could maybe push his team to a gold medal. It's highly unlikely, he's the only NBA player they have and it looks like they'll also be missing two of their best overseas players in Kostas Sloukas and Tyler Dorsey, but Greece's chance to grab a gold medal is certainly greater than zero.

Under new head coach Vassilis Spanoulis, who starred for Greece the last time they were in the Olympics for basketball in 2008, the Greeks rolled over their opponents at the Olympic qualifying tournament. Most impressive was their lockdown defense, especially against Luka Doncic and Serbia. Giannis may be their only player on an NBA roster but their five-man group of Thomas Walkup, Nick Calathes, Kostas Papanikolaou, Giannis, and Georgios Papagiannis is an elite defensive group. There's no one to pick on, and the size combination of Papagiannis and Giannis lets them defend the rim very well.

Offense will be a conundrum for this team. Walkup and Calathes are not shooters, nor do they have a scoring mentality at all. Neither does Papanikolaou. They'll need to be comfortable letting it fly regardless as teams swarm and surround Giannis, which will be the strategy every opponent deploys against them. With a lot of shooting luck, Greece could have enough could beat some of this tournament's best teams on the right day.

Greece will play their opening game against Canada on Saturday, July 27. They will also face Australia and Spain in the group phase.