Upside and Motor: 5 rookies that have us second-guessing out of the gate

Before we get too familiar with the 2024 NBA Draft class, allow me to offer up a full slate of chronic overreactions to a few months of meaningless basketball.

Obviously, it's too early to drastically shift your evaluation of a prospect. Preseason basketball is hardly ever a solid indicator of NBA success, much less Summer League basketball. These prospects need (and deserve) time to settle into their teams and find their footing at the professional level before we levy our final judgements.

That said, for all the work that goes into pre-draft evaluation, it doesn't stop on draft night. It's hard not to second-guess your projections between June and October.

For one, prospects aren't locked into a specific organization before the draft. Team context is always an essential element of player development, especially in a "weak" and balanced draft without an obvious top tier. Victor Wembanyama was always the No. 1 pick, no matter which team landed in the top spot. We can't say the same about Zaccharie Risacher. A prospect's success or failure at the NBA level can often be tied directly to their situation.

There are prospects I liked who wound up in non-ideal spots. The opposite is also true. Dalton Knecht landing in Los Angeles, with JJ Redick as his coach, was probably the best possible outcome. My personal top prospect, Ron Holland, went to the spacing void of Detroit, which adds an extra layer of difficulty to his early development.

Here are a few prospects who, for one reason or another, have me questioning myself ahead of the forthcoming 82-game grind.

5 NBA rookies making us think twice about their pre-draft evaluations

The Jazz made Isaiah Collier the 29th overall pick. He was No. 2 on my board after an underrated season for the wayward USC Trojans. The irony here is that I would've celebrated Utah claiming Collier with their lottery pick, but after he tumbled so far, the doubt started to creep in.

I am still bullish on Collier, don't get me wrong. That said, how a lottery pick is treated is often different than how a late first-round pick is treated. There are exceptions, and Utah's rebuild should open up a lane for playing time. But Utah has several guards on the roster — Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson — who all take precedence over Collier.

It wouldn't be shocking if Clarkson is traded and out of the way by midseason, but Collier appears entrenched in a backup role for the time being. That is fine for the 29th pick, as even moderate contributions to the bench mob would qualify as an unequivocal success for Collier. As somebody who had All-Star visions when watching Collier plow his way to points at USC, however, it's hard to feel great about the setup in Utah.

The Phoenix Suns were able to trade down and land their preferred prospect in Virginia's Ryan Dunn. The book on Dunn in college was fairly simple. He's one of the best defensive prospects in recent memory, but he just could not contribute offensively for the Cavaliers. Dunn was gun-shy and largely incompetent from 3-point range, he never handled the rock, he wasn't an advanced passer — there wasn't much to bank on.

Optimists pointed to Dunn's springboard athleticism and lanky 6-foot-8 frame as a potential source of offensive rebounds and simple finishes around the basket. And yeah, sure, putting four shooters around Dunn and playing him out of the dunker's spot worked as a concept.

What we could not have foreseen, however, is Dunn's sudden aptitude as a shooter. Dunn was a preseason standout for the Suns, doing all his customary defensive work while roping 3s on a regular basis. He shot 43.3 percent from long range across five preseason contests, including a 20-point, five-3s performance against Denver — the team that traded him to Phoenix.

If Dunn is suddenly a plus shooter, not only capable but confident behind the 3-point line, that changes the whole read on his game. Suddenly Phoenix has a ready-made, two-way contributor that fulfills a dire need for more size and defensive playmaking around Kevin Durant. If Dunn's jumper holds, he will vastly outperform his billing as the 28th pick.

Of all the dominant rookies in Summer League and preseason, Zach Edey was the easiest to see coming. He was the best player in college basketball without much of a debate for two years running. He led Purdue all the way to the national championship game as a senior, cementing his status as a Boilermakers legend and a bonafide lottery prospect.

In this draft class defined by uncertainty, we all should've been a little more in tune with outlier traits. That's often the best way to pinpoint and predict stardom. Well, Edey is listed at 7-foot-4 and 305 pounds. That alone is an outlier, not to mention his exceptional touch around the basket and extreme scoring efficiency on post-ups.

He won't get the same post-up diet in the NBA, but those shots should remain extremely dependable for Edey, who won't struggle to come by mismatches at any level. He also landed in the perfect spot with Memphis. The Grizzlies will start Edey on day one, allowing him to set screens for the NBA's slipperiest slashing guard in Ja Morant. That partnership should blossom quickly; Edey screens will free up Morant to get downhill, while Edey's monstrous catch radius makes for an easy target on cuts to the basket.

The defense and rebounding are all there, too. He's not how we traditionally think of elite big man prospects in this day and age, but Edey has all the qualities necessary to break the mold and emerge as one of the most dominant prospects from this class. He was my No. 5 prospect and I'm already wondering if that was too reserved.

I was extremely critical of the Charlotte Hornets' decision to pick Tidjane Salaun at No. 6 overall. Naturally, he killed it in the preseason. The Hornets gave Salaun a long leash and a lot of minutes this preseason and the Frenchman took advantage. Rather than a long-term project, Salaun looks a heck of a lot like a day-one contributor.

The Hornets are looking to take the next step with a healthy LaMelo Ball and a new head coach in Charles Lee. Salaun, No. 37 on my personal board, was a tough prospect to evaluate. The appeal was simple. He's a major athlete at 6-foot-9, comfortable running the court like a gazelle, soaring for finishes at the rim, and launching deep 3s with unfettered confidence. That said, his decision-making was rough, as were the hard contours to Salaun's skill set.

Salaun was basically relegated to spot-up shooting or dunking in France last season. When he tried to create off the bounce and hit pull-up jumpers, it almost always soared wide. The defensive intensity was a plus, but Salaun's anticipation and awareness needed work.

Based on the extremely early results, though, perhaps the tools were more important. Salaun appears to be putting the pieces together quickly. He wasn't some advanced creator in preseason action, but he made his 3s and was a terror on the glass. By sheer force of will and physicality, the French wing made a consistently positive impact on the game. He may be ahead of the curve.

This was the easiest to predict. Reed Sheppard was No. 7 on my board, but that feels like classic overthinking of a rather obvious outcome. There wasn't a better freshman in college basketball last season. Sheppard hit over 50 percent of his 3s and wowed evaluators with his sharp decision-making and disruptive defense.

All the stats pointed to Sheppard as a singular talent in an otherwise middling class. But he's 6-foot-2. But he can't guard one-on-one. But he surely won't shoot 50 percent from deep ever again. All valid concerns, but at the end of the day, Sheppard made it clear he was a hooper at Kentucky. The dude made positive things happen almost every time he stepped on the court.

Houston has a ton of guards, but there's no way Sheppard doesn't play significant minutes. His shooting and on-ball, off-ball adaptability makes him a perfect complement to Amen Thompson, who's due for a much larger role in his second NBA season. The defense popped in Summer League and preseason (and even practice highlights). Sheppard won't suffocate elite ball-handlers at the point of attack, but he's a heat-seeking missile who can make things happen in passing lanes.

Most Sheppard critics pointed to the lack of responsbility thrust upon him at Kentucky. He was clearly the Wildcats' best player, but John Calipari stubbornly brought Sheppard off the bench all season and relegated him to off-ball duties. Sheppard had his passing and pull-up shooting flashes in college, but it wasn't until his Summer League stint that we got to see Sheppard unleashed as a point guard. Shockingly, the high-feel guard with elite shooting touch looked really good.

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You're wrong about Ace Bailey challenging Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg enters his freshman season at Duke as the largely undisputed No. 1 prospect. He will have challengers, though, and consensus currently points to Rutgers frosh Ace Bailey as the primary threat to overtake Flagg atop draft boards.

He made waves in Rutgers' preseason debut against St. John's, dropping 25 points and burying a few eye-popping shots.

Bailey is a great prospect, so I don't want to skew too negative here. Putting him at No. 2 on your board is perfectly reasonable. That said, I'm hesitant to put him on the same pedastal as Flagg. There is undeniable appeal in a 6-foot-9 wing who can hit the shots Bailey hits, but he isn't the most polished option in that 2-5 range. There are a couple extremely dynamic and well-rounded point guards on Bailey's heels, including his own Rutgers teammate, Dylan Harper.

For all the nutty contested jumpers Bailey hits, there are valid criticisms of his shot selection. He's not creating much separation and he's not putting pressure on the rim. If Bailey can become more proficient putting the rock on the floor, that will change his outlook. For now, however, I'd advise against overreacting too strongly to one solid performance in a preseason friendly.

Who are five under-the-radar Rookie of the Year candidates?

My official preseason Rookie of the Year ballot is straightforward — 1. Zach Edey, 2. Reed Sheppard, 3. Zaccharie Risacher, 4. Alex Sarr, 5. Rob Dillingham. That said, this draft was a total crapshoot and there is room for an upset in this prestigous awards race. Here are five under-the-radar ROY candidates worth your attention.

5. Ron Holland II, Detroit Pistons

Again, he's my No. 1 prospect. Ron Holland was extremely productive as the G League Ignite's top scoring option last season despite a void of competent shooters and reliable guard play around him. It's like he was training specifically for a spot in the Pistons rotation. Holland is going to compete like hell on defense, fearlessly attack the rim, and earn regular minutes in Detroit.

4. Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns

Apparently he can shoot now, as mentioned above. Dunn is going to play a significant bench role for a contender, potentially putting up Matisse Thybulle numbers in the steal-block department. If he can also shoot and contribute offensively, Dunn should get plenty of shine.

3. Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls

The Bulls aren't really trying to win games and presumed midseason trades for Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball will only open up more minutes for Matas Buzelis. The G League product impressed in preseason action and the NBA is naturally inclined toward versatile 6-foot-9 wings with a red-hot motor.

2. Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers

The presence of Deandre Ayton and Rob Williams complicates Donovan Clingan's path to minutes, but it won't take long for him to emerge as the obvious best frontcourt running mate for Portland's gaggle of high-voltage guards. Clingan does all the fundamentals at a high level — rock-solid screens, hard cuts to the rim, power finishes — and he's the best rim protector in the draft. Portland needs a defensive backbone, which Ayton does not provide often enough.

1. Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat

The vaunted Miami Heat player development system is about to strike again. With Bam Adebayo suddenly popping out behind the 3-point line, there could be room for two-big lineups and an expanded role for Kel'el Ware. The Indiana product was criticized for his off-and-on motor in college, but 'Heat Culture' should rectify those issues. His skill set — that of a springy 7-footer who can block shots and bomb 3s — ought to pay immediate dividends for Miami.

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