Toronto Raptors: Staying Afloat Without DeRozan
By Eric Saar
Taking a look at the Toronto Raptors and what they need to do while All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan is out with an injury.
The Raptors are 15-5 and atop of the Leastern… I mean Eastern Conference. They recently lost one of their core pieces in DeMar DeRozan in last week’s loss to the Dallas Mavericks. He went down with a torn tendon in his groin according to ESPN. In the 16 games before the injury, he was averaging 19.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. There is no timetable for his return.
That’s so unfortunate for the Raptors, who are on fire with a point differential of plus 10.0. That means on average through 19 games, they are outscoring opponents by double digits. There are only two teams currently achieving that feat — the Raptors and the Golden State Warriors, who hold the NBA’s best record of 16-2. In fact, the next closest point differential in the East is Cleveland’s +3.8. Not even close to Toronto’s +10.0.
Who needs to step up?
Well, the other two parts of Toronto’s core will need to carry some of the load. Point guard Kyle Lowry and center Jonas Valanciunas have to make up for the absence of DeRozan. They aren’t going to make up that much offensive production and consistency in one player. It’s going to have to be a group effort, with everyone stepping up.
Lowry is already playing well, averaging 20.6 points and 6.8 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game. He also has a 24.73 PER (player efficiency rating where average is 15). He had 39 points in 38 minutes Wednesday against Utah. To keep Toronto rolling, he’ll need to up his points per game to near 25.
Valanciunas’ stat line currently reads 11.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.2 blocks with a 20.19 PER. To keep up with other teams, Toronto should feed the Lithuanian big man down low, upping his poi to 18 per game. He’ll also need to get that rebounding average into double figures.
While he’s already a sixth-man-of-the-year candidate, Lou Williams will need to give Toronto consistent production off the bench for them to hold on to the top spot out East.
For players regularly coming off the bench (i.e. 13 or more of the 19 games for most teams so far) Williams’ 14.2 PPG (points per game) is fifth only behind Los Angeles Clippers guard Jamal Crawford, New Orleans Pelicans’ power forward Ryan Anderson, and Phoenix Suns guards Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green in scoring.
| Player | Season | G | GS | MP | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Anderson | 2014-15 | 17 | 0 | 27.9 | .410 | .330 | .487 | .818 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 15.1 |
| Jamal Crawford | 2014-15 | 17 | 2 | 27.5 | .445 | .356 | .533 | .913 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 16.9 |
| Gerald Green | 2014-15 | 19 | 0 | 21.5 | .432 | .373 | .487 | .881 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 14.4 |
| Isaiah Thomas | 2014-15 | 15 | 0 | 23.6 | .435 | .393 | .457 | .909 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 15.5 |
| Louis Williams | 2014-15 | 19 | 0 | 21.3 | .424 | .383 | .455 | .854 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 14.2 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 12/5/2014.
However, as Adi Joseph of USA Today Sports tipped me off to, Williams’ on/off stats are way better than those players. Compare the ORtg (offensive rating) stats on the far right side of each graphic. The graphics show how well the offense plays with the player on the court and off the court.
Lou Williams
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/5/2014.
Jamal Crawford
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 12/5/2014.
Ryan Anderson
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 12/5/2014.
Gerald Green
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/5/2014.
Isaiah Thomas
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/5/2014.
It’s not even close. Williams is the only one to have a double-digit positive on/off offensive rating. If he can sustain those numbers, the Raptors should be fine. He’ll probably have to up that to 18 or 20 points a contest to help make up for DeRozan.
Since DeRozan has been out…
The Raptors have played three games against Western Conference teams bound for the lottery and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Against the west teams, they lost one…to the worst team of the three.
That was Sundays’ game in Los Angeles against the Lakers that was decided in overtime. Kobe Bryant had gone for a 31 point, 11 rebound, 12 assist triple-double, as the Lakers squeaked out with a win. Kobe set a milestone in that game as the only player to hit both the 30,000 career point and 6,000 career assist mark.
It was a close game…on the road…where Kobe went off…and it went to overtime…in their first game without their All-Star guard in DeRozan. That’s an acceptable loss, especially when you play in the Eastern Conference. In the other two games, Toronto took care of business on the road trip as they went into Sacramento and Utah, knocking off the Kings and Jazz by 8 and 19 respectively.
Then they lost to LeBron James and the Cavaliers 105 -91.
Going forward
While there is no timetable for DeRozan to come back, let’s project a month out to see how the Raptors will fare with a core piece sidelined for a while. Before January fifth of the New Year, the Raptors will play 14 more games. Fortunately, eight of those reside in the Eastern Conference and eight are against teams currently under .500. Unfortunately, in that stretch, they also face LeBron James the surging Cleveland Cavaliers and the Chicago Bulls, as well as three good Western opponents in the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns. Even without DeRozan, the Raptors should go 8-6 in that stretch, bringing their overall record to 23-11.
Next: Who is the greatest player in Toronto Raptors history?