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Bismack Biyombo: Buy or No?

By Andrew Tobolowsky

May 21, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors center Bismack Biyombo (8) clutches the ball after making a rebound in the second half of a 99-84 win over Cleveland Cavaliers in game three of the Eastern conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
May 21, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors center Bismack Biyombo (8) clutches the ball after making a rebound in the second half of a 99-84 win over Cleveland Cavaliers in game three of the Eastern conference finals of the NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /
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There’s one really, really good reason that teams will be lining up to sign Bismack Biyombo to a big money deal this offseason.

It’s that they can’t sign Kevin Durant.

I’m sure that seems both obvious and completely insane but the thing about the NBA is that it’s about known quantities. I’d argue it’s about that more so than any other major sports league in the world. The D-League is great, and blossoming, and would need to develop very dramatically to be considered a place where you’re likely to find a sixth or seventh man instead of an end of the bench guy. The draft is only two rounds and if you get a full round’s worth of decent players out of it, that’s a damn good draft.

That continues over the course of the season with three or four games against everyone in your conference and two games against everyone in the other is very fair. And the playoffs are the fairest in the world: to whatever extent both teams are healthy, seven games is a lot of time for reality to assert itself. It doesn’t turn on an underperforming ace or a weird fumble. I mean, usually.

So that’s what makes guys like Biyombo so exciting. You rarely find a guy you haven’t heard of who seems like they could be a major contributor. You’d pay – teams will pay – a huge premium for that. I remember when that guy was Lance Stephenson and Mavs fans were coming to blows over the fact that he hadn’t really shown enough, on the one hand, but young guys with his talent level aren’t usually available as unrestricted free agents on the other.

Bismack Biyombo is a superlative rebounder and shot-blocker. Per 36, he’s been grabbing almost 12 and blocking almost 3 since 2013. And, with a net rating of +3.8 this year, it seems like he’s a net positive who adds more the more he plays.

But teams are not buying what he is right now, they’re buying what he could be. And they’re buying what he could be, fundamentally, because they need him to be. Because scarcity is the biggest damn issue in the game today. You cannot beg, borrow, or steal impact players, there just aren’t enough.

And that’s what puts Biyombo’s would be buyers in the danger zone. Because he isn’t currently that much of an impact player and though he’s only 23, it’s not like he showed up yesterday. This season was his fifth in the league, and his third playing 20+ minutes. He is a woeful offensive player who will, for the rest of his career, struggle not to ruin the spacing of the teams he’s on.

In all likelihood, Biyombo will continue to be a guy you could do worse than, a solid rim defender and rebounder, who will struggle to stay on the court for more than 25 minutes for the rest of his career. And teams have to decide on him now, coming off a big playoff performance and in the offseason where the salary cap jumps 1000 feet. Even acknowledging that free agents are always more expensive than people want them to be, it’s a pretty good bet that Biyombo’s next contract is going to look bad in a few years. I’d say hope your GM isn’t the one who gets caught up in it.

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