Fantasy Baseball 2017 Tier Rankings: Outfield
By Bill Pivetz
Other positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop
The outfield position is the deepest offensive position, 90 starters per day. The downside is that not all of them are worth owning in fantasy leagues.
The outfield position is always deep. It hasn’t gone through the scarcity some of the infield positions had in years past. Looking at this year’s crop of outfielders, I think the position is even deeper.
I have seven outfielders worth drafting in the first two rounds of drafts. There are a few more that will be drafted in the next two rounds. With five starting outfield spots as the default, you need to draft them early and often. I usually draft six outfielders, five starters and a replacement, just in case one of them go down with an injury. It all depends on your league’s settings.
I will be doing one post for each position. It doesn’t help the readers to reference four or five different posts when trying to develop their own rankings. This year, I will be doing tier rankings for the positions. It’s easier to see what players rank where all in one post.
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Unlike third base, where they provide power numbers more than anything else, outfielders contribute to all five categories.
There are the power hitters, those that get on base and the speedsters. My colleague Gavin Tramps recently wrote about the speed guys to target, and there were a lot of outfielders.
Each tier for each position will be different. Depending on the position, you may have one or two guys or five or six guys in Tier 1. The lower tiers will be grouped with multiple levels of talent, but they have one thing in common, they have little value in most leagues.
I have 60 outfielders broken up into eight tiers. The top tier has just two players. The rest of them have at least six players per tier. There are a lot of players within two or three spots of each other in the overall rankings that the stats are too similar to break up into more tiers.
In the spirit of not repeating myself or my fellow contributors, I will link to the articles of players if we already talked about them. I will expand on a couple of other outfielders per tier.
This tier features outfielders that have been around for a good amount of time. Most of them are coming off a down year in 2016. These are the outfielders you will target in the late 20s or add them off the waiver wire.
Cameron Maybin (LAA)
Jason Heyward (CHC)
David Peralta (ARI) – The Diamondbacks outfielders were hurt for most of the season. There’s another one I’ll mention later but this is about Peralta. After a breakout 2015 season, he played in just 48 games last year. He hit four home runs, 15 RBI and .251. Peralta has the potential to be a 20 HR/10 SB/.300 hitter with a full season.
Domingo Santana (MIL)
Steven Souza (TB)
Keon Broxton (MIL) – Here is my colleague Brad Kelly’s outlook on Broxton.
Hunter Pence (SF) – After back-to-back 162 game seasons in his first two full years with the Giants, Pence has dealt with injuries over the last two years. Pence is a solid bench option in standard leagues or a starter in deep leagues. He can hit 20 home runs and with a .275 average. In the 24th round, that is a great value.
Byron Buxton (MIN) – Kelly recently wrote about Buxton here.
Yasiel Puig (LAD) – I wrote about Puig being a bounce back candidate in 2017.
This tier is home to some young players with value and veterans holding onto their final days with fantasy relevance.
Nomar Mazara (TEX) – Mazara had a great first season as the Rangers right fielder. He hit 20 home runs, 64 RBI and .266/.320/.419. The Rangers made great improvements to their lineup at the trade deadline and this offseason. With those additions and the current group of players, Mazara will have his opportunities to improve on his rookie season.
Yasmany Tomas (ARI) – Tomas has been recently diagnosed with a strained oblique. These injuries tend to linger for a while, so keep tabs on his status.
Rajai Davis (OAK)
Ender Inciarte (ATL) – The Braves are clearly rebuilding, but they have some young players to watch for years. In his first season with Atlanta, Inciarte hit three homers, 29 RBI, and .291 with 16 steals. He obviously isn’t a power guy, but as an outfielder that can get on base and steal, he will have value. Even with the poor Braves offense, he will do everything he can. I expect a .293 average and 22 steals.
Brett Gardner (NYY)
Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY) – Ellsbury is no longer the player he was in Boston. Kelly says it’s time to move on.
Melky Cabrera (CWS)
All of these values can benefit your team in one way or another. Like I mentioned in the intro, there are power, contact and speed to be found, especially in this tier.
Michael Conforto (NYM)
Kevin Pillar (TOR)
David Dahl (COL) – Kelly wrote about Dahl being a breakout candidate (before the injury)
Joc Pederson (LAD) – Pederson is the best outfielder for the Dodgers and could move up into the top 30 by season’s end.
Curtis Granderson (NYM)
Randal Grichuk (STL) – Grichuck had his breakout in 2015 with 17 home runs, 47 RBI and .276 in 103 games. He improved his power last year but sacrificed average. He hit 24 homers, 68 RBI and .240 in 132 games. If he can hit in the middle of his home runs and average (21 HR and .260), then he will be a great draft pick.
Jay Bruce (NYM) – Ryan Cook warned owners about Bruce in 2017.
Dexter Fowler (STL) – Will Fowler perform well with his new team within the same division?
Kole Calhoun (LAA) – Kelly mentioned Calhoun being undervalued.
Odubel Herrera (PHI) – Herrera is an outfielder, and player, I like to make a big impact in 2017. Kelly feels the same way.
Adam Duvall (CIN) – Duvall had a great power season, but is he a bust candidate this season?
The majority of this tier features outfielders that can 30 to 40 home runs this season. There are a couple others that can help with contact and speed, but this tier of outfielders will provide you with power.
Ian Desmond (COL) – Desmond will play first base for the Rockies, when he’s healthy, but will start the season with outfield-only eligibility. I had him at the top of this tier, but his injury drops him a few spots.
Adam Eaton (WSH) – Eaton will hit in a better lineup and favorable division. His value will depend on where he hits in said lineup. I think his numbers will be roughly the same between 2016 and 2017.
Andrew Benintendi (BOS) – The rookie showed everyone in the majors what he’s been doing in the minors. He hit .312 between High-A and Double-A before making his debut with the Red Sox. In 34 games, he hit .295/.359/.476. Benintendi isn’t much of a power hitter, but I like him to get on base and score runs.
Lorenzo Cain (KC)
Michael Brantley (CLE) – If Brantley can stay healthy and perform like he did in 2014 or 2015, then he will be the steal of the draft. That is a big ‘if,’ though. If your league has a DL or an extra bench spot, stash Brantley just in case he rebounds.
Matt Kemp (ATL)
Marcell Ozuna (MIA) – Is Ozuna reliable enough for a full season?
Khris Davis (OAK) – Davis hit a ridiculous 42 home runs last year. Is that something we can believe in for 2017?
Mark Trumbo (BAL) – Trumbo will hit in Baltimore for another season. I think that was the best scenario for his fantasy value.
Billy Hamilton (CIN)
Stephen Piscotty (STL)
Kyle Schwarber (CHC) – Remember, he is outfield only in standard league formats.
Adam Jones (BAL) – Jones struggled in the first month of 2016, hitting .224, but finished strong. He hit 29 home runs 83 RBI and .265. I think gone are the days of the 30-home run seasons, but 27 to 29 with 90 RBI and a .270 average is great for an eighth-round pick.
Justin Upton (DET)
Jackie Bradley Jr (BOS) – Bradley had a good season, but Cook questions if he’s worth drafting in 2017. I think he needs to lower his strikeouts, he’ll be a sleeper top-30 pick.
Jose Bautista (TOR) – Toronto brought back Bautista after losing Edwin Encarnacion. He struggled last season but still produced some power. He’s a solid No. 3 option in standard leagues.
A.J. Pollock (ARI) – Pollock had his breakout season in 2015 and disappointed all fantasy owners last year by playing in just 12 games. As a result, Kelly believes he’s being overlooked this year. I agree.
Nelson Cruz (SEA) – Cruz will also have DH eligibility this season.
Gregory Polanco (PIT) – Kelly calls Polanco a breakout candidate and Cook says to draft him over his teammate Starling Marte.
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) – Here is my analysis on Cespedes returning to New York
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – Like Pollock, McCutchen disappointed his fantasy owners. Will be he able to bounce back?
George Springer (HOU)
Trea Turner (WSH) – Turner will enter the 2017 season with both second base and outfield eligibility. Most owners will draft him as a second baseman, but I think putting him in an outfield isn’t a bad idea. He hit 13 homers, 40 RBI and .342 with 33 steals. I think a 20 HR/40 SB/.315 season is very likely, making him a top-10 outfielder.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) – Stanton is going to need to stay healthy for fantasy owners to buy in again. His frequent DL stints are affecting his draft stock.
Ryan Braun (MIL)
Carlos Gonzalez (COL)
J.D. Martinez (DET) – Despite injuries, Martinez put up good numbers. He played in just 120 games but hit 22 home runs, 68 RBI and .307. I think he will be back to his 2015 status and be an elite outfield option, especially in that Detroit lineup. Do not overlook Martinez.
Christian Yelich (MIA) – Yelich is slowly becoming the best Marlins outfielder. He hit 21 homers, 98 RBI and .298 in 155 games. He had a huge spike in power, hitting seven in 2015. I believe the homers will come down some but not enough to affect his value.
Starling Marte (PIT)
Charlie Blackmon (COL) – Kelly believes Blackmon is a first round pick this season. He is my No. 4 outfielder as a second-round pick. There are three outfielders, a third baseman, two first baseman, and a few others ahead of him in my overall rankings. His value could also be affected if the Rockies front office decides to trade Blackmon.
Bryce Harper (WSH) – Harper may be the biggest disappointment last season. All of his stats dropped greatly between 2015 and 2016. The Nationals improved their lineup with the addition of Eaton. Harper will be back to 100 percent and will hit another 35 home runs.
This tier is for the elite. These two players contribute to all five categories and warrant a first-round pick.
Mookie Betts (BOS) – In 158 games, he had 122 runs, 214 hits, 31 home runs, 113 RBI and .318. Betts also stole 26 bases. He doesn’t strike out often, making him more valuable in points leagues. I think the homers drop by two or three, but I wouldn’t be surprised with a 30 HR/30 SB/.310 season. I even tossed out the idea of having Betts as the first overall pick.
Mike Trout (LAA) – I am amazed that Trout can put up the numbers he does with little support around him. His home runs dropped, but his average went up 16 points. Trout also stole 30 bases, the first time since 2012. He is also a candidate for a 30 R/30 SB/.310 season but Trout gets the boost from his .441 OBP. Having 116 walks to 137 strikeouts helps everyone involved.
As you can see, there is value to be had at the outfield position at all points in the draft. I like at least two players from each tier. If you have a deep bench or a lot of outfield spots, you will have to look at some of those ranked in the 60s and 70s. There are even players I didn’t mention, ranked in the 80s.