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MLB over/under best bet: Ivan Nova faces former team

By Matt Zylbert

Apr 17, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Ivan Nova (46) looks on prior to a game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Ivan Nova (46) looks on prior to a game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /
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Ivan Nova has been very steady since joining the Pirates right before last season’s trade deadline. Can he continue providing his new team with quality pitching today against his old one?

Unfortunately, my six-bet unbeaten streak (5-0-1) came to an end yesterday, as Jameson Taillon and Michael Pineda could not keep up their strong early season success, leading to an unexpected high-scoring affair. However, I won’t let that deter me away from this rare Yankees-Pirates series, as I have another over/under play involving these two teams on Sunday afternoon.

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 11-9-3 (55%), +110

Yesterday’s Result: Pineda vs Taillon Under 7 (Loss)

New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates

Jordan Montgomery vs Ivan Nova

UNDER 8 (-120) (via OddsShark)

Yes, I lost the under in this series yesterday, and the previous two meetings between these clubs have resulted in 25 runs being plated, but the series finale of this three-game Interleague set looks like it could be prone to an under if you really dig deep into this intriguing pitching matchup.

Of course, former Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova will be making his first start against the organization since being dealt to Pittsburgh around the trade deadline last season.

Nova flourished immediately after becoming a Pirate, ultimately finishing 5-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 11 starts in his new digs. For that, he was rewarded by the team with a three-year, $26 million contract over the offseason, and the 30-year-old certainly hasn’t let them down with their investment.

Through three starts, it is apparent Nova has picked up right where he left off, as despite being 1-2, he owns a shiny 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His strikeout total isn’t anything special, but he’s managed not to walk a single batter in 20 total innings.

Interestingly, Nova faced his ex-mates early on in spring training, so that could help him maintain his emotions. With three quality starts in as many tries, the eight-year veteran could be in line to deliver another, as he’ll certainly be extra motivated for it facing the only other team he’s ever played for.

Meanwhile, one of the youngsters that is now part of New York’s rotation to help fill the vacancy left by Nova is Jordan Montgomery, who will be making his third career big league start this afternoon.

Montgomery held his own in the previous two assignments, going 1-0 while surrendering five earned runs in 10 2/3 combined innings (4.22 ERA), but perhaps most notable of all might be that he’s racked up 11 strikeouts, versus only four walks, in the process.

He’s coming off his first career quality start in a win over the White Sox on Monday, so he has to be gaining confidence while still settling in as a major league starter for the first time. As a left-hander, he also figures to benefit from the Pirates having the worst hitting line (.190/.279/.319) vs. lefties in the National League.

Next: Best Starting Pitchers in MLB History

With all of this in mind regarding the two starters, as well as Pittsburgh’s struggles against lefties, I’m on the under.

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