Canelo Alvarez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. betting odds
By Peter Kahn
Canelo Alvarez is a big betting favorite this Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas as he takes on Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34KOs) will face Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32KOs) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on May 6 in non-title, 12 round catch-weight bout.
There has already been a lot of drama surrounding the weight for this fight including a hefty $1 million dollar per pound penalty for either fighter should they have weighed over the limit at yesterday’s weigh-in. Don’t be surprised if Chavez Jr. weighs 10 pounds more than Canelo on fight night. This could play a role in how the oddsmakers see this fight.
According to the Oddsshark boxing odds, the Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. betting odds place Canelo as a -600 favorite to defeat the son of Mexico’s most revered fighter that shares the same name. Chavez Jr. is a +450 to pull off the upset.
The public money says Canelo all the way, however, the sharp money could be in betting the underdog Chavez Jr. Most experts don’t have the cojones to pick the bigger Chavez Jr., so I’m going to do it for them.
With no major sanctioning body title on the line, it’s clear that this fight is for Mexican pride. The most interesting line for this fight that sets the tone as to how to place additional wagers is -110 to go the distance (wager $110 to win $100). The oddsmakers are making a statement with this line. They don’t feel that Canelo’s power will translate at this weight enough to have an overwhelming line for a knockout victory. At -175 (Wager $175 to win $100) they’re banking on this fight going over the 9.5 round mark too.
The lean toward the fight going 12 rounds leaves the door open for a few underdog bets that garner a big payday for bettors that like to place wagers on bets that could provide a high return on investment. Three additional best bets would include Chavez Jr. +900 (Wager $100 to win $900) to win by a decision or technical decision. Chavez Jr. +450 (Wager $100 to win $450) to win the fight.
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If you’re already vested in the fight going the distance and you would like to hedge your bet of Chavez Jr. winning, you can take +2500 for a draw. In that case, the only scenario in which you lose is Canelo winning or winning by knockout. Keep in mind, we’re talking about value here, so taking Canelo at -600 is not value. One can argue that the -600 is a public line and that late money very well might come in on Chavez, Jr. The bigger man with a four-inch height advantage and three-inch reach advantage, Chavez Jr., has already dropped to +450 from the +700 opening line.
Expect an exciting fight that could provide bettors with many ways to cash in.