25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 2 Duke Blue Devils

Duke could win another national title by going big for the first time in a while

Things are set to change in Durham this season. After four years of embracing small ball with future NBA lottery picks Jabari Parker, Justise Winslow, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum primarily slotting in at power forward, the Duke Blue Devils are primed to play much bigger in 2017-18.

The change is attributable to a loaded recruiting class featuring a pair of freshmen who should immediately vault Duke into the conversation of best frontcourts in America. Marvin Bagley III, a late commitment who only joined the Class of 2017 in July, has been heralded as the best high school prospect since Anthony Davis. The 6-foot-10 forward is a versatile threat who can do a bit of everything offensively from beating defenders off the bounce to occasionally knocking down outside shots. Although he doesn’t possess elite length, Bagley has the athleticism, mobility and vertical pop to be as comfortable defending the perimeter as he is protecting the rim.

Then there’s Wendell Carter, a 6-foot-10 forward out of Atlanta who is about as forgotten as any top-10 recruit can be. Lost in the shuffle of Bagley’s reclassification and some of the other incoming freshmen, Carter won’t remain slept on for long. He should be the Blue Devils’ best post scoring option since Jahlil Okafor and he’s one of the top rebounders in the class.

While Bagley and Carter figure to receive the bulk of the minutes, head coach Mike Krzyzewski also has plenty of depth up front. Formerly a projected lottery pick, Marques Bolden is back for his sophomore season alongside Javin DeLaurier, a 4-star recruit from 2016 who played sparingly as a freshman behind Amile Jefferson and Harry Giles.

If recent history serves as any type of guide, the two bigs look could be a boon for Duke on the defensive end. Plenty of caveats apply — namely, this is largely a new group of players and our sample size from prior seasons is relatively small — but over the last three seasons (we’ll toss out 2013-14 when the Blue Devils played small almost exclusively with Parker and Rodney Hood), the team has been better than its season-long average on defense with two bigs on the floor.

In theory, that makes sense. Having multiple bigs around to contest shots at the basket is valuable as is the ability to clean up the defensive boards, preventing second-chance opportunities. Bagley will block more shots than Carter, but both should do a great job of taking away offensive rebounds.

The below chart, which highlights the points per possession scored offensively and conceded defensively by Duke for the 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, highlights the gap. Lineups featuring some combination of two bigs that played a minimum of 50 possessions together outperformed the team’s season-long average defensively:

Two things stick out in the above chart. First, the gap is smallest in 2014-15, but it’s the season where Duke played big most often with Jefferson lining up next to Okafor for about 37.0 percent of the team’s possessions with a couple of other combinations sprinkled in. That season was also the Blue Devils’ best defensive season since 2010-11. Perhaps, not coincidentally, it’s also the last time the school won the NCAA Tournament.

In fact, dating back to 2001-02, the first season of which we have adjusted defensive efficiency measures from KenPom, Duke’s tournament success has been positively correlated with how good its defense has been. The sample is obviously small, but still somewhat enlightening as it suggests it’s possible to lose early with a good defense, but very hard to make a deep run without one:

So, that’s why playing big potentially helps. And the good news — the second interesting thing about the above points per possession chart — is that it doesn’t seem to hurt the offense. The Blue Devils have a history of being one of the top offensive teams in the country. Usually, that’s because the roster is stacked with good perimeter shooters. For example, each of the last three seasons, Duke as a team has connected on 37.9 percent or better of its 3-point attempts.

That’s where things could get a bit dicey in 2017-18.

Briefly, here’s the good news. Grayson Allen is back for his senior season. He might have problems controlling his limbs, but he’s a career 38.6 percent 3-point shooter on nearly 500 attempts. He’s going to play a lot of minutes and at worst, he should give the Blue Devils some spacing. Freshman Gary Trent Jr. can also fill it up from outside and 4-star recruit Jordan Tucker should bring a bit of shooting off the bench.

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Here’s the concern. Trevon Duval is an elite point guard prospect. He’s a terrific slasher who can get to the rim at will and his 6-foot-10 wingspan will be an asset to the defense we talked about earlier at the point of attack. He should give Duke its first consistent true point guard play since Tyus Jones. But he can’t shoot. And that could quickly constrict spacing on the floor with two big men in the frontcourt meaning that for the first time in a while, the Blue Devils could feel some level of pain offensively from going big.

It’s tough to project just how big of a dent that could put in the team’s offense and perhaps Bagley will shoot it more frequently and more accurately than expected, so it won’t matter. If not, though, Duke will have to find some other ways to score efficiently. The easiest way to do that is probably to just up the shot volume by having the bigs chase down offensive rebounds. The strategy would play to the strengths of Bagley and Carter while alleviating Duval’s biggest weakness.

Last March, playing big, dominating the boards at both ends and patrolling the paint is effectively what won the Blue Devils’ rivals, North Carolina, a national championship. If the strategy succeeds again this season it could mean another trophy for Tobacco Road.