We’re officially in the full swing of the MLB season, which means we have a ton of games to watch and bet on tonight.
Sometimes, the best edges in betting on the sport don’t come in moneyline and totals bets, instead the value often lies with prop bets.
So, if you’re looking for a few to bet on for tonight, I’m here to help.
I’m going to break down my top three MLB prop bets for Tuesday.
MLB prop bets today
- Kenta Maeda OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
- Steven Matz OVER 2.5 earned runs (+115)
- J.P. Sears UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (-120)
Kenta Maeda OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
We’re still early in the MLB season, but sometimes you have to jump on early trends to be able to take advantage of them before sportsbooks adjust the odds. Well, the Miami Marlins have been striking out all over the place.
They’re 29th in the Majors in strikeout rating, striking out on 29.7% of plate appearances.
Kenta Maeda averaged 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 2021, so I expect him to be able to surpass this number tonight against the lowly Marlins offense.
Steven Matz OVER 2.5 earned runs (+115)
Steven Matz saw some major regression last year, recording a 5.25 ERA in 10 starts and 15 appearances for the Cardinals. I don’t have much faith in him improving on that this year, especially today when he has to take on the potent Braves offense.
The Braves are averaging 5.75 runs per game so far this season and I expect them to record at least three before Matz gets yanked.
J.P. Sears UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (-120)
The Cleveland Guardians had the best strikeout rate last year by a huge margin, 1.2% lower than the next best team. They’re getting odds to another strong start in that area this season as well, with a strikeout percentage of just 17.3% which is the second best mark in the Majors so far.
Tonight, they get to face J.P. Sears, who isn’t exactly a strikeout pitcher, averaging only 6.8 K’s per nine innings last season. I’ll take the UNDER on his strikeout total tonight.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.