College football is about to return to grace our weekends. The preseason Top 25 rankings are out and speculation abounds on who will be lifting the national championship trophy in January. Here, however, we're going to look on the pessimistic side and talk about the notable programs who will likely have bad seasons, likely leading to the firing of their coaches to get things back on track. These six unfortunate candidates are already on the chopping block.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Since shocking the college football world and taking Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021, Fickell hasn't managed to win more than seven games in a season. Competing in the Big Ten requires consistency and innovation. Fickell's tenure in Madison has at least been consistent … consistently getting worse. The Badgers went 5-7 in 2024 and then 4-8 in 2025; that's the wrong direction no matter who the coach is.
He has a contract that ties him to Madison through 2032 and he humbly declined a one-year extension that was surprisingly offered by the school this offseason. That would sound like job security to any other head coach. However, Fickell's days are clearly numbered, and that number may be fewer than 13 weeks. If the school's administration decides to let Fickell continue to lead through the team's bye in Week 6, he'll be required to finish out the season above .500 regardless of how tough the opponents are. No longer can a once respectable program like Wisconsin associate with the Big Ten's basement dwellers.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
The Seminoles improved upon 2024's debacle, but let's be honest, it should be easy for a program like Florida State to win more than two games in a season. Going 5-7 last year was still a tough campaign considering the Seminoles started off the year with a massive victory over No. 8 Alabama and were 3-0 to begin their year. Norvell, unfortunately, will have an unproven quarterback to navigate a crucial year. Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels only managed 767 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions last year before landing in Tallahassee.
The hype of Florida State's 12-0 regular season in 2023 has well worn off, and Norvell hasn't been able to recover the magic he captured in his early tenure. Two straight losing seasons have the fanbase impatient for a return to the team's former glory, to say the least.A CFP berth is looking far from a reality, and the 2026 schedule isn't going to be kind to them. There's a very real chance Florida State is 2-6 going into November, and if that's the case, then athletic director Michael Alford will have no choice but to fire Norvell to stop the bleeding.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
The Terrapins are entering year eight with Locksley at the helm in College Park. He's gone two consecutive seasons managing just four wins after three straight years with results that suggested the program was on an upward trend. Freshman quarterback Malik Washington put up a healthy 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2025, but his nine interceptions need to at least be halved if more victories are to be in the team's future.
Similar to Norvell, Locksley will probably have until Maryland's Week 8 bye to prove he deserves to stick around. That won't be easy considering the Terrapins' schedule is rather stacked against them. They'll face UCLA, Nebraska and Ohio State all in a row ahead of that bye. The Big Ten is only getting stronger and if Locksley can't return to the eight-win standard he set before 2024, the program may have to cut him loose and figure out how to find their own Curt Cignetti to escape the conference basement.
Bill O'Brien, Boston College
O'Brien's time with the program got off to a surprisingly impressive start in 2024, going 4-1 with a win over then-No. 10 Florida State and a subsequent one-score loss to No. 6 Missouri. But then the Eagles woke up from their dream to a nightmarish three-game losing streak and a 3-2 finish to the campaign. If 2025 was supposed to be an encouraging follow-up, Boston College fell well short of that mark with an abysmal 2-10 performance.
The 2026 season doesn't look much more promising in an all-important year three under O'Brien. Finishing .500 or better will be the floor if he wants to keep his job and that may be asking a lot with a wide open QB battle -- currently projected to be redshirt junior Mason McKenzie -- and not many well-known names on the roster to compete in the ACC. Don't be surprised if the Week 6 bye is the cutoff point for the school's patience with O'Brien.
Scotty Walden, UTEP
After jumping to the Mountain West this July, already high expectations for the program will get even more ambitious entering the 2026 campaign. The biggest competition in the conference left for the Pac-12 so there's a huge opportunity to fill the void. That being said, Walden hasn't won more than three games in a season over the course of his two-year tenure in El Paso, so this could be his last chance to prove he can reach the .500 benchmark.
That's a lot easier said than done. The team agreed to be the sacrificial lamb for Oklahoma and Michigan in the first three weeks and then it'll have to contend with the likes of Oregon State, North Dakota State and Hawaii the rest of the way. Pulling off a few upsets will be required to give the administration a reason to hold off on making a change mid-season. Although, I wouldn't blame them since the program has only had one winning season in the last 11 years.
Jay Sawvel, Wyoming
Another Mountain West coach entering a critical year three, Sawvel went a combined 7-17 over his last pair of seasons. With the exodus of perennial contenders in the conference for the Pac-12, Wyoming is presented with a unique opportunity for the program to take advantage of its experience against newcomers. That's a double-edged sword, though.
If the Cowboys cannot defeat the new programs on its schedule like North Dakota State, Northern Illinois and UTEP, then that's a rough embarrassment for anyone to swallow. It's been a while since the Josh Allen era in Laramie, but the program is still considered a prominent jumping-off point for coaches to get into the Power Four. Should Wyoming move on from Sawvel, it could easily attract an impressive and ambitious candidate for a retool in 2027.
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