We're almost halfway through the college football season, but the Top 25 rankings shouldn't fool anyone into thinking those teams are going to coast into the postseason. In fact, there's a number of programs that are likely to not be ranked by the end of the year if their lackluster performances in victories are any indication.
At this point in 2025 compared to the final AP poll of that season, there were 10 teams ranked that were not included in the end-of-season list. There's probably going to be close to that same number in 2026, especially with how intense conference schedules are about to get. Let's talk about some potential contenders who have "second half slide" written all over them.
No. 24 SMU Mustangs (4-1)
Only one of SMU's four victories this year has been by 10 or more points and that was a 56-10 blowout win over FCS UC Davis. At the time, its 10-point loss to Louisville was considered a "good" stumble, but the Cardinals have since fallen out of the rankings themselves, which makes it look a lot worse. Since then the Mustangs couldn't bury the newly-FBS Missouri State and had to crawl to victory over Boston College.
SMU's remaining schedule is filled with trap games and then an eventual marquee matchup with No. 3 Notre Dame. Head coach Rhett Lashlee is clinging to a poll ranking by the skin of his teeth which means any of Virginia, Virginia Tech or Wake Forest -- the likeliest possible upcoming losses -- could spell doom for the team's ACC title game hopes.
No. 19 USC Trojans (5-1)
Four of the Trojans' five victories are against low-quality opponents. Beating San Jose State, Fresno State, Louisiana and Rutgers to start a year is the definition of a cupcake schedule. When faced with true competition, USC fell flat against Oregon -- and that was after viciously taking out the Ducks' starting quarterback. Sure, the Trojans beat Washington at home, but they were trailing the Huskies for most of the contest and escaped with a four-point win after some questionable calls went their way in the fourth quarter.
Head coach Lincoln Riley is on the thinnest of ice and the team's remaining Big Ten schedule is looking like a gauntlet. Three of the next six games are against ranked opponents -- No. 5 Ohio State, No. 7 Indiana and No. 21 UCLA. It would be shocking if two of those weren't losses. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has looked inconsistent at best and the defense is porous. Facing an angry Penn State team and an under-the-radar Wisconsin squad up next shouldn't be overlooked as stumble opportunities either. Riley's job security is also one of the biggest distractions in the sport at the moment.
No. 17 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1)
Quarterback Kamario Taylor is one of the most refreshing stories in college football, as he appears to be a rare case of loyalty in the lucrative NIL and transfer portal era. Yet, his inexperience betrays him and that was on display against No. 6 Alabama on Saturday. Taylor threw two interceptions that resulted in crucial points for the Crimson Tide in the 56-23 drubbing in Starksville. He plays like Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss but has the tendencies of South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers.
Taylor has opportunities galore across the final seven games of the season but that goes both ways. A Nov. 21 tilt with Tennessee State is the only gimme left on the schedule with half of the other remaining contests being against ranked SEC opponents -- No. 10 LSU, No. 1 Texas and then No. 9 Mississippi. If Taylor shakes off the Alabama loss, the conference should be on alert, but something tells us he still needs development and those ranked matchups will be valuable lessons for next year.
No. 16 Florida Gators (4-1)
The Gators let a very winnable game get out of hand against Missouri. New head coach Jon Sumrall feels more equipped to turn things around than Billy Napier was, but the SEC is about winning, especially against the teams you're supposed to beat. Playing catch-up rarely results in a conference title and Florida shouldn't expect to be an exception to that rule this year, especially with back-to-back games against No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Georgia upcoming.
Quarterback Aaron Philo has talent but still needs development. Running back Jadan Baugh probably saw his Heisman Trophy campaign come to a close against Missouri, but he's still the workhorse of the offense. Yet, the Tigers just gave the rest of the conference a lot of tape on how to stifle them both. Sumrall could have the best intentions about making sure another loss doesn't happen, but delivering on the field is going to be a lot easier said than done.
No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers (4-1)
The last two weeks for the Volunteers have been suboptimal despite a win in Week 5. They had a clear opportunity to take down the top-ranked Longhorns but came up short and then followed it up with a tight win over Auburn. Tennessee has a rather favorable schedule going forward minus meetings with No. 10 LSU and No. 6 Alabama, though don't sleep on Texas A&M or Kentucky to pull off the upset.
Where Tennessee needs to figure out consistency is at the quarterback position. Season starter Faizon Brandon was benched during Saturday's win over Auburn for George MacIntyre and even he couldn't top 100 yards passing. Head coach Josh Heupel's explanation that Brandon "just wasn't operating" should be very concerning. If he can't pull it together for the second half of the season, the Volunteers are going to tumble out of the rankings quickly.
No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-0)
Despite being undefeated, there's very little convincing about the defending Big 12 champs. It took until late in the fourth quarter for the Red Raiders to pull away from lowly Colorado on Saturday, and before that, they needed a similar late-game push to escape challenges from Houston and Oregon State. The Big 12 isn't rather strong all around this year, which may overinflate Texas Tech's potential this year. They feel like the biggest contender for a disappointing yet predictable upset or two this year.
With how flat the offense has looked for most games, Texas Tech is now having to deal with external factors impacting its roster. A court ruling dissolved an injunction that gave quarterback Tommy Castellanos eligibility for this season. Now, Castellanos hadn't been that impactful for the Red Raiders so far anyways, but starter Will Hammond has been only just good enough. If he were to go down with injury and Castellanos is ineligible, Texas Tech is stuck with dipping into its depth chart for redshirt junior Kirk Francis or redshirt freshman Lloyd Jones III.
No. 8 BYU Cougars (4-0)
While the Cougars aren't necessarily in any danger per se, they haven't really passed the eye test in games against conference opponents. They needed a second-half pullaway to get past Arizona in Week 2, who led by three at halftime, and then only managed 17 points against TCU. BYU is the top-ranked Big 12 school but it feels like the AP voters have put it on that pedestal by default.
A Week 7 bout with Notre Dame will probably show the college football world what the Cougars really are, a good team but nothing more than a Big 12 title contender. Even that may not be a statement to be fully confident in. BYU avoids Texas Tech -- until presumably meeing in December in Dallas -- but keep Nov. 7 against No. 12 Utah and Nov. 14 against Baylor circled on your calendars. Those are the ripest chances for upsets that could derail what is supposed to be the program's most promising season to date.
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