MLB Power Rankings: Roki Sasaki's preferred destinations ahead of Winter Meetings posting
Juan Soto understandably has captured most of the baseball world's imagination in recent weeks, but he's not the only big-name free agent who's set to shake up the Winter Meetings next week. According to a report from ESPN's Jeff Passan, Roki Sasaki is set to be posted at some point in the next few days, officially opening the 45-day window in which all 30 MLB teams will be able to negotiate with the Japanese ace.
We've known that Sasaki was coming to the States for weeks now, but the timing and circumstances of his arrival were up in the air. Being posted now means that the 23-year-old righty and his team will be able to interface with Major League front offices in Dallas, and that he'll be available to sign with whichever club he chooses once the next international amateur signing period begins on January 15.
With all due respect to Soto, you could make the argument that Sasaki might wind up being the single most impactful signing of this entire offseason. He's just 23 years old, and with a triple-digits fastball and a wipeout splitter, he's already established himself as one of the most talented pitchers anywhere in the world. And unlike Soto, he's going to come at an incredibly discount: Because of MLB's international amateur rules, Sasaki will only make somewhere around $7-8 million annually. If he blossoms into the ace scouts think he can become, there may not be a more valuable player anywhere in the league.
But now that we know when the Sasaki sweepstakes will begin, where might he wind up? Here's how the field is stacking up ahead of the Winter Meetings.
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5. The Giants could lurk as a sleeper for Roki Sasaki
We know, the next time the San Francisco Giants actually land a top-tier free agent will be the first, and the hiring of Buster Posey as the team's top executive doesn't exactly inspire confidence. But we know that San Francisco has been kicking around the top starters on the market, and we know that the budget is tight this winter. Rather than splash a ton of cash on, say, Corbin Burnes, why wouldn't they do everything they can to convince Sasaki to sign?
While a team that's made the playoffs just once in the last eight seasons might not seem like the most compelling landing spot for a 23-year-old phenom, their case could be more compelling than you think. San Francisco has had plenty of success luring East Asian players in the past, and the Bay Area boasts among the largest Japanese communities in America. If Sasaki is looking to ease his transition, and remain a relatively easy flight away from home, the Giants could appeal. And if he's looking for a friendly place to pitch, well, they don't get much friendlier than Oracle Park.
4. The Cubs should be very motivated to land Roki Sasaki
Wrigley Field might not be as pitcher-friendly, but other than that, the Chicago Cubs check every box you could want in a Sasaki suitor. Yes, the team won just 83 games last season. But the core of talent here is rock solid, and there are a ton of reinforcements on the way from the Minors. This is a team ready to take off with the right signing or two, and they showed with Shota Imanaga last season just how well they can help a Japanese pitcher find immediate success in the States.
Plus, there should be no lack of motivation on Jed Hoyer's part. It's been obvious for weeks that he's looking to make an impact addition to the Cubs rotation; just look at this week's near-deal that would've brought in Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox. But the frustrating financial reality means that names like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried are non-starters. Sasaki is the best of both worlds, combining the upside of a Burnes or Fried with the youth and cost control of someone like Crochet. Whether they can sell Sasaki on coming to the Midwest, however, is an open question, and the lack of recent success is working against them.
3. The Mets could put the full-court press on Roki Sasaki
While fans of the New York Mets are busy reading tea leaves trying to determine where and when Juan Soto will eventually sign, the team is going to need to continue fleshing out its rotation ahead of the 2025 season. David Stearns has already signed Frankie Montas and converted New York Yankees closer Clay Holmes, but while those are worthy bets to make, there are still far too many question marks with this starting staff for a team that has World Series aspirations.
No matter what happens with Soto, Sasaki figures to be on the team's radar. Stearns loves balling on a budget, and values don't come better than a pitcher like Sasaki on such a reasonable contract. Plus, Steve Cohen and Co. were in til the end on Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter, and figure to be motivated to right that wrong this time around. On paper, New York has plenty for Sasaki to like, from an enviable pitching development group to a chance at immediate contention. The main question, however, is whether the righty has any interest in playing in the Northeast.
2. The Los Angeles Dodgers might well add to their growing superteam
From pretty much the moment that Sasaki's posting was announced, the competition for his services has centered around two teams: the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. L.A. has fellow Japanese superstars in Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani in tow, and the team just rolled to a World Series title a month ago. Speculation about Sasaki to the Dodgers was so rampant that the righty's agent had to step in to shoot down rumors of a handshake deal already agreed upon.
So why don't they occupy the top spot in these rankings? Maybe this is pure speculation, but reading between the lines, it seems like momentum has shifted a bit over the last two or three weeks. The Dodgers are still a force to be reckoned with, but the last few updates we've gotten have poured a bit of cold water on their chances, including one just a couple of days ago that made it seem like the Padres were the slight favorite. This is as wide-open as a free agency can possibly be considering how unknown Sasaki is, but call it a gut feeling.
1. The San Diego Padres feel like the team to beat
The Padres nearly upended their division rival in a classic five-game NLDS this past October, and their roster sets them up to contend immediately with Sasaki in tow. Plus, they have the same Southern California advantages, and they also boast Sasaki's close friend and mentor, Yu Darvish, in their rotation. That figures to count for a lot, and while we don't yet know what will motivate Sasaki as he looks for a new home, it does seem to be the case that Ohtani and Yamamoto's presence in L.A. could limit his endorsement potential a bit.
San Diego checks just about every box that the Dodgers do, and have had plenty of their own success in developing pitchers of late. But they also have a bit of novelty in their corner, the David to L.A.'s Goliath, and maybe that will make the difference.