The Toronto Blue Jays feel destined to lose Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whether there's a trade next week or he walks in free agency a year from now. The two sides were unable to agree to terms on an extension ahead of spring training. The price for Guerrero won't go down when the rest of the league is bidding against Toronto.
Guerrero was born in Canada and he harbors a special relationship with the Blue Jays organization, but baseball is a business. He understands that as well as anyone. The list of potential suitors is vast, but it's probably unwise to get caught up in pure fantasy. With all due respect to the Seattle Mariners, Jerry Dipoto is not putting $500 million on the table next winter.
The odds are Guerrero will land with a traditional powerhouse in a lucrative market. It's how these things go. In the process, Guerrero will have a chance to spice up some of the best rivalries in this sport. Any time a generational talent swaps sides, it brings new life to age-old feuds.
Where exactly Guerrero will end up is a mystery, but it's fun to think about all the bad blood Guerrero can dredge up in 10 months time. Let's rank the potential rivalries Guerrero might impact, from least spicy to spiciest (spoiler: they're all pretty spicy).
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4. Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
The New York Mets just piling star talent on star talent doesn't sound very fun. This rivalry doesn't exactly take on a fresh, exciting dynamic if Guerrero links up with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor in Queens.
That said, what if Guerrero takes his talents to the Philadelphia Phillies? A team with a longstanding appetite for major free agent investments and a metric ton of cash coming off the books next winter. Philadelphia's offense has lacked that extra oomph in recent postseason clashes. Bryce Harper is ostensibly the Phillies' first baseman, but one has to think he'd consider a move to the outfield or even DH if it meant bringing Guerrero to Citizens Bank Park.
New York eliminated the Phillies in the NLDS a few months ago. The Mets are here to stay as NL East heavyweights. It's Philadelphia that needs to make up ground, as Harper's World Series window won't stay open forever. It's difficult to conjure a better way to extend it than signing a 26-year-old Guerrero, who should have a lengthy prime ahead of him.
Guerrero and Harper stack up awfully well against Soto and Lindor, especially when factoring in the Phillies' elite pitching depth and a healthy collection of secondary stars. Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos — these aren't nobodies. Guerrero might just move Philly back to the top of the divisional hierarchy.
3. San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants rank first and second all-time in NL pennants, respectively. This rivalry has felt rather lopsided in recent years, but the Giants still have more World Series rings since the turn of the century. In terms of historical significance and geographic proximity, there might not be a more consequential rivalry in baseball.
Vladdy to the Dodgers would obviously suck — and it's just not going to happen with Freddie Freeman locked at first base. That said, San Francisco has been star-hunting for years. Matt Chapman and Willy Adames are excellent players, but the Giants still haven't been able to land their white whale in free agency. Aaron Judge slipped through their fingers. Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto never materialized. Guerrero, however, feels like a genuine possibility. Especially now that Los Angeles and the New York teams have spent so much money on other stars.
Guerrero would give the Giants a sense of legitimacy in the NL West that hasn't existed for years. Few understand the power of the Giants-Dodgers rivalry more than Buster Posey. He knows how important it is for San Francisco to field a legitimate contender. It's hard to draw up a better infield than Guerrero, Chapman, Adames, and Tyler Fitzgerald. The Giants can figure out what to do with LaMonte Wade later. Just get Guerrero in the building.
2. New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Well, duh. Really either way the cookie crumbles, Guerrero going to a New York team will spice up that intracity rivalry.
For the Yankees, it's a direct response to Juan Soto's departure. Suddenly the Bronx Bombers have another A-list slugger slated ahead of Aaron Judge in the lineup. Just like that, the Yankees go from good to great, with little immediate competition in the American League. Baseball is always unpredictable, but the Yankees would sit miles above the rest of their division on paper.
For the Mets, it's a chance to potentially shed the 'little brother' label in New York. The Yankees will always have a distinct edge — at least for a couple more centuries until the Mets can balance out the World Series and pennant disparity — but in the short term, it would be hard to view the Yankees as anything other than inferior to a lineup consisting of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Vladdy Jr.
The team from Queens has earned its moment in the sun. That fanbase spent decades toiling in suppressive mediocrity. Steve Cohen is the richest owner in baseball and he has made it his life's mission to bring a World Series to his borough. The Mets probably stack up against the Dodgers better than any other team with Guerrero in the mix.
If the Yankees can lure Vladdy Jr. to the Bronx despite past animosity with the Guerrero family, it's just more proof that the Yankees will never go away and that anything is possible when Hal Steinbrenner's checkbook is open.
1. Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
The Boston Red Sox have spent the last several years playing catch-up in the AL East. This offseason finally saw Craig Breslow string together a couple consequential additions. He found Boston's new No. 1 ace in Garrett Crochet, then he brought in a perfect offensive fit in Alex Bregman, whose career numbers at Fenway should have every Red Sox fan in a state of euphoria.
That said, Boston still feels like second or even third place in the division, depending on your opinion of the defiantly patient Baltimore Orioles. Boston needs that superstar bat to really hold a candle to Aaron Judge. The Red Sox have the pitching and the depth to put the Yankees on notice, but Guerrero's arrival would move Boston into pole position. It would flip this rivalry on its head.
With all due respect to the folks in Queens and those west-coast haters in LA and San Francisco, there is not a better MLB rivalry than Boston-New York. Heck, it might be the greatest rivalry in sports. There's just so much hatred baked into this matchup, even when the teams aren't particularly close to one another in quality. Guerrero can usher in the next era of truly great Red Sox-Yankees showdowns.
The 25-year-old famously once said: "I like to kill the Yankees." Hell yeah, dude. There isn't a better place to kill the Yankees and dance on their graves than Boston. This is a match made in heaven.