The New York Yankees made quick work of the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card series, allowing them to advance to the ALDS. Getting past Boston, particularly without Aaron Judge, is an accomplishment that shouldn't be taken lightly, but they'll have their work cut out for them against a Tampa Bay Rays team that finished with the best record in the American League.
The Yankees should be taken seriously as a threat to overcome Tampa Bay, but if they want to advance, they'll need to overcome these very real obstacles.
Yankees will need to find a way to win at Tropicana Field
To start, the Yankees will need to find a way to win at least one game at Tropicana Field, home of the Rays. As the lower seed, the Yankees cede home-field advantage to Tampa Bay to start, meaning that the first two games and three of the best-of-five series will be played at Tropicana Field. That doesn't sound so daunting until you take a look at the statistics.
First and foremost, the Rays went 5-2 against the Yankees at home this season, including a three-game sweep in April. Additionally, the Rays went 55-26 at Tropicana Field this season, tying them with the 101-win Brewers for the best home record in the majors. They were dominant at home by any metric, and they've consistently been tough to beat in Tampa Bay over the years. Again, to advance, the Yankees must beat the Rays in Tampa at least once.
Beating the Rays would be the Yankees accomplishing something they rarely have under Aaron Boone
Another thing the Yankees will need to do to overcome the Rays is beating a higher seed. The Yankees, as the top Wild Card team, were the No. 4 seed in the AL, while the Rays are the No. 1 seed. Upsets happen all the time in October, and the Yankees are certainly talented enough to pull it off, but historically under Aaron Boone, they've shrunk under the pressure of being an underdog.
Only time the Yankees have beaten a higher seed in the playoffs under Aaron Boone.
— Max Mannis (@MaxMannis) October 2, 2026
Will they be able to topple the Rays and add another? pic.twitter.com/QTVbeJFNSm
The Yankees have won a grand total of one postseason series as the lower seed under Boone, and that came in the 2020 best-of-three Wild Card series when there were no fans in the stands. Here's how they've done before and after against higher-seeded teams.
Year | Opponent | Yankees Seed | Series | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | Boston Red Sox (No. 1 seed) | No. 4 seed | ALDS | 3-1 BOS |
2019 | Houston Astros (No. 1 seed) | No. 2 seed | ALCS | 4-2 HOU |
2020 | Cleveland Indians (No. 4 seed) | No. 5 seed | AL Wild Card | 2-0 NYY |
2020 | Tampa Bay Rays (No. 1 seed) | No. 5 seed | ALDS | 3-2 TB |
2021 | Boston Red Sox (No. 4 seed) | No. 5 seed | AL Wild Card | 1-0 BOS |
2022 | Houston Astros (No. 1 seed) | No. 2 seed | ALCS | 4-0 HOU |
2024 | Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 1 seed in NL) | No. 1 seed in AL | World Series | 4-1 LAD |
2025 | Toronto Blue Jays (No. 1 seed) | No. 4 seed | ALDS | 3-1 TOR |
The Yankees have taken full advantage when they're the higher seed, but as you can see, their only postseason series win against a higher seed was in 2020, and there're tons of losses before and after, including a loss against the top-seeded Rays in that year's ALDS. It'll be interesting to see if this is the year they can get over the hump.
Hitting Rays All-Star pitching won't be an easy feat to pull off
As if things won't be difficult enough with Judge not on the ALDS roster, the Yankees will need to figure out a way to hit some elite pitching. Notably, they'll need to figure out a way to hit guys they didn't hit throughout the regular season.
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay's Game 1 starter, pitched to a 2.86 ERA in four starts against New York, despite allowing six runs in 2.1 innings in a start against the Yankees on July 9. That speaks to how well the right-hander pitched the other three times he got to face the Yankees, as he allowed a total of one earned run in 20.2 innings in those outings. Rasmussen last faced New York in late September and held them hitless through six frames before eventually allowing a hit (and a run) in the seventh.
Rasmussen is the ace, but he's not the only pitcher the Yankees have had trouble solving. Nick Martinez, another All-Star who should start at least one game in this series, allowed a total of four runs in 16.2 innings of work against the Yankees in the regular season, pitching to a 2.16 ERA in three starts. Is that good?
The Yankees have elite pitching of their own for the Rays to contend with, but they'll need to score runs to win. Doing so won't be easy against this Rays team.
Stopping Yandy Diaz will be key for the Yankees
When discussing the Rays' offense, all the headlines revolve around Junior Caminero, and understandably so. He's a superstar. With that being said, the Yankees actually did pretty well against Caminero during the regular season, limiting him to a .204 average and one home run in 13 games. A hitter they couldn't stop, though, was Yandy Diaz.
Diaz, Tampa Bay's primary leadoff hitter, slashed .362/.412/.532 with two home runs and 10 RBI in 12 games against New York this season, and the 57 runs he's driven in against the Yankees in his career are his most against any team. The Yankees have had all kinds of trouble slowing Diaz down, and that can prove to be problematic with stars like Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Liam Hicks slotted behind him.
If the Yankees can make Diaz a non-factor, the Rays will have trouble scoring runs. It'll be interesting to see the kind of success they'll have.
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