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The biggest X-factors for the Yankees and Rays who will decide their ALDS clash

These guys aren't Aaron Judge or Junior Caminero, but that's not an issue.
ByJake Elman
New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells
New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells | Dustin Satloff/GettyImages

For only the second time in their nearly 30-year existence, the Tampa Bay Rays have a postseason date with the New York Yankees. Junior Caminero and the AL East-winning Rays open the ALDS on Saturday evening against Ben Rice and the No. 4-seeded Yankees, who are fresh off sweeping the Red Sox in the Wild Card Round.

The Yankees’ roster is filled with All-Stars, and that’s not even factoring in three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge, whose status remains uncertain amid a calf injury. But outside of Caminero, who do you know in the Rays’ lineup? What about their pitching staff, which ranked fourth among AL teams with a 3.70 ERA?

Luckily for you, we’re here to help. For this list, we’re looking at those who aren’t the biggest names but should nonetheless play a pivotal role in the best-of-five set. As a result, neither Judge nor Caminero made our list, because that’d be far too easy. 

New York Yankees’ 2026 ALDS X-factors

New York Yankees pitcher Paul Blackburn
New York Yankees pitcher Paul Blackburn | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Austin Wells, C

We praised Wells following the Yankees’ Wild Card Series sweep, and he deserves further kudos for righting the ship. The New York media market is a savage beast, and it takes a certain kind of athlete to stay level-headed after such a dreadful first half. 

Between his improved hitting and steady defense, Wells continues to validate the Yankees’ faith (or, depending on your opinion, stubbornness) in the 2020 first-round pick. Perhaps Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone were right all along. 

Paul Blackburn, P

Blackburn entered this season with a lifetime 4.97 ERA in over 467 innings, so maybe we shouldn’t have been surprised he became Matt Blake’s newest project. The 32-year-old finished with a career-best 1.97 ERA in 85 innings, filling the swingman role that Chad Green and Luke Weaver previously held. 

That said, Blackburn’s 9.8 percent walk rate was over two points higher than his 7.5 percent career average. Can he avoid putting extra runners — specifically the dangerous Chandler Simpson — on the bases?

Tampa Bay Rays’ 2026 ALDS X-factors

Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Víctor Mesa Jr.
Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Víctor Mesa Jr. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Ian Seymour, RP

With respect to Seymour, we’re not even sure that Rays fans understand the value he’s brought to Kevin Cash’s pitching staff. The second-year lefty struggled out of the bullpen before a midseason move to the rotation, and he proved invaluable down the stretch; he recorded 83 strikeouts against only 12 walks in 68 second-half innings.

The one knock against Seymour is his inability to keep balls in the park, and his 4.5 percent home run rate — significantly above the three percent league average — doesn’t mesh well with the Yankees’ power-heavy lineup. It remains unclear whether Seymour will draw a start or return to the bullpen.

Víctor Mesa Jr., RF

Baseball fans might remember Víctor’s older brother, Victor Victor, a former Miami Marlins outfield prospect — and no, that’s not a typo. 

The younger Mesa joined the Rays this past February, only days after the Marlins designated him for assignment. All he did upon joining Tampa was hit .260 with 14 home runs, 34 RBIs, and an .825 OPS in over 260 plate appearances, and his 2.9 bWAR tied for fifth teamwide. What is it that allows the Rays and Yankees to find players like Mesa or Brent Headrick and turn them into above-average contributors? 

Mesa stepped up in the second half, hitting .288 with an .892 OPS and ensuring the Rays won their first AL East crown since 2021. What does he have planned for his postseason debut? 

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