Ranking all 12 rotations in the MLB playoffs: Dodgers in the driver's seat

So often, success in the MLB postseason comes down to your starters' ability to get outs and pitch deep into games. The quicker the wick on your bullpen burns out, the sooner your team is sent packing. And while explosive offense can make up for lackluster pitching, elite arms are typically more reliable than elite bats.

Let's dive into the postseason rotation for every team, ranked from worst to best.

12. Chicago White Sox

Chicago plans to use talented rookie Hagen Smith as an opener in Game 1, which shows their lack of faith in the bottom of their rotation. Erick Fedde (-0.1 fWAR) is the only real option for a "fourth" starter, but don't be shocked if the White Sox use him more in a bulk role (or avoid him altogether) for as long as their postseason run lasts.

Helpfully, Davis Martin and Sean Burke — far and away Chicago's best arms all season — snapped back into form down the stretch, after both hit speed bumps in August. The White Sox rotation is a complete shot in the dark, but if Chicago can slug its way past Houston in the Wild Card round, there's a chance this group can give just enough for a deep run in a weak American League.

11. Houston Astros

Hunter Brown is a bonafide ace, but Houston needed all 162 games to claim their spot in the postseason, which means the Astros' rotation is not properly lined up for the Wild Card round. Even so, these are all at least passable options. All four expected Houston starters posted a sub-4.00 ERA this season.

The concerns here are experience-based, more than anything else. Brown is the only Astros starter with a postseason résumé. The others are fresh-faced and unproven; besides Brown, only Lambert eclipsed 100 innings pitched this season. The Astros rotation has been a patchwork situation all year. Houston may find it hard to get proper mileage against a dangerous White Sox lineup. The Astros will roll with a bullpen game to start their opening series; that would be an ill omen if Chicago's pitching staff wasn't equally suspect.

10. Chicago Cubs

Chicago's lineup might be the deepest and most fearsome in the postseason, but their pitching situation is equally dire. Matthew Boyd will get the Game 1 start, but he's a postseason pumpkin-in-waiting. Kevin Gausman has a ton of experience — and he was great in Toronto's World Series run a year ago — but he's past his prime and scuttling to the finish line.

Shōta Imanaga and Clay Holmes were solid enough in the regular season, but Holmes really struggled down the stretch. Moreover, nobody in the Cubs rotation, besides Gausman, can really miss bats consistently. Chicago's bullpen won't provide much support, so the Cubs need to max out their offense in order to mount a deep run.

9. San Diego Padres

San Diego made a valiant effort to solidify their rotation at the trade deadline, acquiring lefty Robbie Ray and righty Casey Mize in separate deals. Unfortunately, Mize is hurt and Ray fell victim to long-overdue regression in September. It's unclear if either will or should be used in a starter capacity in October.

That said, the Padres can feel good about their one-two punch of Michael King and Nick Pivetta. Neither is a shutdown ace, but both are dependable for five or six innings, which allows San Diego to set up a world-class bullpen. Walker Buehler and Randy Vásquez have both outperformed expectations all season, but neither feels especially trustworthy in a must-win game. San Diego may have to trust them, however.

8. Atlanta Braves

The Braves roll into the Wild Card series with only three starters on the roster. How Atlanta proceeds in the NLDS, should they survive a familiar foe from Philadelphia, will be interesting. Martín Pérez's recent move to the IL threw the Braves rotation into disarray. Youngsters J.R. Ritchie and AJ Smith-Shawver are the only healthy fourth starter options right now; if Pérez or Bryce Elder can return down the road, Atlanta may still prefer a bullpen game in their place. Or they could shorten Chris Sale's rest schedule and pray.

Sale is the ace up Atlanta's sleeve. He gives them an advantage in damn near every matchup. Behind him, there's more uncertainty. Tyler Mahle was a deadline pickup who played the part of an ace down the stretch, but he's due for untimely regression. Grant Holmes has been a steady innings-eater all season, but he's not really built to pitch deep into postseason games — at least not against a competent opponent. The Phillies' weak lineup may offer a free pass in the Wild Card round, assuming Atlanta's own lineup can perform.

7. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are as close to an underdog as the No. 1 seed can get, but this team has real ammo in the rotation. Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez were lights-out all year, while Freddy Peralta finally hit his stride in September. The veteran right-hander allowed three runs over his last five starts; if Peralta can reaffirm his ace status in the playoffs, Tampa has the offensive depth and bullpen bullets to mount a deep run.

Now, Martinez's success has felt a but flukey all year and he bombed in their season-ending loss to Philadelphia (not that Tampa was playing for anything in that game). Meanwhile, the fourth spot could get tricky. Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour were both fine in the regular season, but there's a chance Tampa prefers to piggyback them instead of asking either to pitch five-plus innings in a must-win game.

6. Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians pitching machine did its thing this season, with rookie Parker Messick immediately pitching his way into both the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year conversation. He should get the nod in Game 1 of the ALDS, with Gavin Williams as the No. 2 lock. This wasn't the most consistent season from Williams, but he has some of the best pure stuff in baseball and he was downright spectacular for Cleveland last October.

Foster Griffin fell victim to ill-timed regression after Cleveland acquired him at the deadline, but the 31-year-old rookie has nonetheless earned his spot in the postseason rolodex. Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee both have cases for that fourth spot, but Bibee's superior résumé should not eclipse Cantillo's much stronger individual season and underlying metrics.

5. Milwaukee Brewers

Milwuakee's rotation took its lumps down the stretch, but Jacob Misiorowski snatched the Best Pitcher in Baseball crown this season and his mere presence raises the Brewers' ceiling beyond where it was a year ago. Logan Henderson would be a Rookie of the Year candidate if not for injuries. He looks the part of a solid No. 2, while fellow rookie Robert Gasser allowed one or fewer runs in four straight starts to end the campaign.

Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison both looked the part of postseason starters for much of the season, but Milwaukee transitioned both into opener/bulk roles down the stretch amid struggles. The Brewers could deploy a piggyback setup in that fourth starting spot. Or we could see them ride Dustin May, their marquee trade deadline addition who, despite his peaks and valleys, is a major talent with a ton of respect league-wide.

4. Boston Red Sox

Boston will roll with breakout rookie Payton Tolle in Game 1 of the Wild Card series, and he earned it. Beyond his infectious personality and intense competitive spirit, Tolle was one of the best pitchers in MLB this season — a 6-foot-6 tank who explodes down the mound with hard-biting velocity and impressive deception on his secondaries.

Behind Tolle, the Red Sox can line up two seasoned vets in Sonny Gray and Ranger Suárez. Suárez in particular has made his name on postseason excellence, operating with an unshakable poise. Boston's other standout rookie, Jake Bennett, isn't on the Wild Card roster, but the Red Sox can feel reasonably good about him as a fourth starter come the ALDS. Boston's rotation depth has been a calling card all season, and it could carry the Red Sox deep into October.

3. New York Yankees

New York would be easy favorites to win the American League if Aaron Judge was healthy. Their lineup has experienced its share of lulls in 2026, but there's more than enough pop to support a lights-out rotation. The Yankees' health has peaked at the right time when it comes to their pitching staff. Gerrit Cole has settled into a functional groove, while Carlos Rodón and his 2.67 ERA are on hold until the ALDS, which is a real luxury.

Cam Schlittler is about to win the AL Cy Young award in his first full MLB season. He has decimated opponents all season and New York shouldn't anticipate anything less in October. Max Fried's postseason track record is a bit dicey, but he's one of the most consistent aces in MLB. The Yankees can't help but trust him.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies didn't clinch until the regular season finale, which means their rotation is not lined up for the Wild Card series. Philadelphia will start with Jesús Luzardo as an "opener," with Andrew Painter in the mix as a piggyback option. Luzardo has only pitched one inning since he hit the IL with shoulder pain, but he was also the best starter in the National League after the All-Star break. If Philly can get to the second round and stretch Luzardo back out, this rotation gets even scarier.

Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez are two of the five best pitchers in the world. Sánchez hit a few speed bumps down the stretch, but there's every reason to believe he can lock in for a do-or-die postseason matchup. We've seen him do it before. Aaron Nola felt like the weak link for much of the season (and he still is), but a killer second half (and his historic excellence against Atlanta, in particular) means the Phillies can feel pretty good about him, too.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers won't have Shohei Ohtani available to pitch in October, but does it even matter? Tyler Glasnow is the weak link; his 34 percent strikeout rate is in MLB's 97th percentile. He can get into trouble when the command falters, but the Dodgers paid Glasnow like an ace because he is an ace. Health is really all that has held him back and he's fully available right now.

Los Angeles' three-man gauntlet of Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell pretty easily clears the competition. Skubal is still the most trustworthy ace in baseball, while Yamamoto is the reigning World Series MVP on account of his incredible composure in the clutch. Snell is a two-time Cy Young winner and he almost feels like an afterthought. Since returning from injury in August, Snell has allowed just five runs in 39.2 innings (1.13 ERA) with 50 strikeouts.

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