Manager Aaron Boone and the New York Yankees brain trust have been consistently criticized by fans for relying too much on data and analytics in recent years. The team's decision to go with Gerrit Cole as their Game 1 starter in the Division Series against the Rays shows that Boone isn't afraid to go with his gut under the right circumstances.
Cam Schlittler is the Yankees' best pitcher, but he was never going to be ready to start Game 1 after throwing 117 pitches in the Wild Card round against the Red Sox. That left Boone to choose between Cole and Carlos Rodon for who would get the start to open the series against Tampa Bay.
Cole has the bigger reputation of the two as a former Cy Young award winner who has loads of posteason experience under his belt. Rodon's time in the Bronx has been uneven, but he's been lights out for New York down the stretch of this regular season. There's a cogent argument to be made that going with Rodon would have allowed the Yankees to go with the hot hand. Cole, in sharp contrast, has endured some struggles towards the end of the regular season even if his final start did represent an uptick in form.
Going with Cole is the safer pick for Boone. He has more support with the team's passionate fan base and it's hard to argue against going with a pitcher with such a stellar resume. That does not mean the numbers favor his selection.
Why do analystics favor Carlos Rodon going against the Tampa Bay Rays?
There's a strong data driven case to be made for Boone bucking the conventional wisdom and going with Rodon. Tampa's lineup has struggled mightily agains left-handed pitching this season. The Rays have been excellent against right-handed pitching. Their mark against righties checks in with the fourth best OPS in the game.
The Yankees routinely get criticized for being too analytical. But this is a decision that plainly goes against the numbers.
— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) October 2, 2026
Rays this season vs. RHP: 4th best OPS
Rays this season vs. LHP: 25th best OPS
Of course, the Yankees will trust Cole no matter what. https://t.co/crB7mgRjxT
Starting Rodon would have tilted the odds in the Yankees favor since Tampa's OPS checks in as the No. 25 market in the game against southpaws. If New York's decision makers were determined to value analytics over everything they would have given Rodon the ball in Game 1.
Instead, they've shown a flexibility that scores of Yankees fans were not sure they possessed. Going with Cole is an example of New York going with feel and emotion over the numbers. That's a gamble in its own right but likely represents the more popular course forward by Boone.
Time will tell if the Yankees' decision to go with Cole on feel over data pays off. It's a departure over the franchise's recent decision-making processes, but it's the sort of gamble teams sometime need to make if they want to achieve World Series glory.
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