How Dylan Cease could still catch Cam Schlittler in the AL Cy Young race

I actually already went through Dylan Cease and Cam Schlittler’s Cy Young race just over a month ago, and the executive summary was this: the Cy Young is for the most impactful pitcher, and in five chosen stats to measure just that, I handed Cease a 3-2 split-decision victory. Now, things have changed.

Many of the advanced stats that gave Cease the edge on July 16 have tightened up considerably. Most of the results-based metrics still favor Schlittler, like innings pitched (20.1 more than Cease), ERA (which should be a team stat) and win/loss record (is already a team stat). Most of the underlying stuff still points to Cease, like xFIP, K/9 and opposing batting average. But it is really close these days, to the point where I’m willing to consider Schlittler the actual front runner because of his innings advantage. SIERA, an ERA estimator I occasionally point to, has actually flipped to favor Schlittler by .02 since I wrote the last piece. That’s all very arcane, and the TL;DR is that Cease now needs to catch up to Schlittler, who is a small -195 favorite on FanDuel. 

Schlittler is definitely the favorite now, but Cease is a close second

It gives me no pleasure to ordain New York Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler the legitimate front runner (read my author bio for why that might be), but I don’t see any other conclusion. Schlittler has ridden his main edge: a sub-6 percent walk rate all the way to the bank to avoid base runners, avoid runs and turn his lesser strikeout numbers into even more impact. His innings edge is something I refuse to ignore, given that the Cy Young is about impact — Schlittler has literally impacted four more starts than Cease and over 20 more innings. 

In no way does that mean Cease cannot catch him; you’d be shocked how much these season-long stats can be tanked by one bad inning or a few below-average starts. Cease has gawk-worthy strikeout numbers, and a few high-K outings in a row could give him a decent edge while bringing down his other stats. With Schlittler’s inning advantage, Cease’s best case is to lead the AL in both total Ks and ERA. That could very well be enough.

Cease could produce a few sterling outings and take back the race

The win/loss record is what’s really grinding my gears and what makes it so unlikely that Cease wins the award no matter what he does. Schlittler is 11-6 while Cease is 7-5. Sonny Gray actually blows both out of the water with 16 wins, so the win leader crown probably won’t matter for our purposes. But if Cease has a losing record? That could really mess with voters’ heads. 

Cease does have one potential ace in the hole: willingness to pitch long games. Cease has shown an ability (and arguably a desire) to go into triple-digit pitch counts. This could lead to something truly spectacular … like a no-hitter. I obviously can’t predict such a rare outcome, but Cease has literally pitched a no-hitter in his career already. He definitely has what it takes, and doing so might tip the Cy Young scales in his favor.

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