Dylan Cease or Cam Schlittler? Breaking down the AL Cy Young race in 5 stats

When I famously broke down the National League Cy Young race between Jacob Misiorowski and Cristopher Sanchez, we got into the weeds with some ERA estimators, contact quality metrics and historical records each guy was chasing to figure out who deserved the award. (Okay, so it wasn’t that famous.)

The American League Cy Young race has also narrowed to two guys — Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease — and it’s an absolute dead heat. But before we deal with that, we need to deal with what was left out of the NL piece: a broader discussion of what the Cy Young Award actually is for, about which there is zero agreement, much consternation and potential for future armed conflict if we aren’t careful.

Put simply: The Cy Young is about impact. Starting pitchers don’t control wins and losses — they never did, but the death of the complete game means they control them even less — and just saying “it’s for the best pitcher” gets us nowhere. Establishing how pitchers impact the game is hardly an exact science, but the following five stats are my attempt to do that.

Delving even deeper into the third circle of sabermetric hell, we find an even broader philosophical discussion about whether it’s even fair to use stats that project underlying performance in awards voting. Sure, I love Fielding Independent Pitching, but with enough errors and ground balls, you could theoretically have a pitcher with a 0.0 FIP and a 150.85 ERA who went 0-14 on the year. Can these estimators and true performance indicators actually be trusted to vote for awards, or does factoring in what actually happened on the baseball diamond sorta kinda matter? After all, we’re not voting for the best underlying pitcher; we’re just voting for the best pitcher.

Ruminate on that as much as you want. Here’s my effort to figure out which of Schlittler and Cease has been more impactful this season in five stats. 

ERA-FIP

Advantage: Cease (1-0 Cease)

ERA-FIP is a good way to determine if a pitcher’s ERA (probably the single most widely used stat in Cy Young discussions) is fair or unfair to their actual performance. Positive = good, because then your ERA is higher than your FIP and you may be due for some positive regression. Negative = bad, because, well, the opposite. 

Schlittler sits at a -0.77 ERA-FIP, while Cease is chilling at 0.38. There are a million ways I could have illustrated this exact point, but Schlittler’s ERA simply does not match up to the underlying batted-ball data. His 2.05 ERA is the main reason he’s in the conversation right now, but it simply is not likely to continue. Cease, meanwhile, has the looks of a much better pitcher than his stats even suggest.

HR/9

Advantage: Schlittler (1-1 Tie)

I always see HR/9 discussed in fantasy baseball circles because it’s one of the most liar-liar-pants-on-fire numbers we have. A pitcher who has given up barely any home runs all year will have inflated statistics, while a pitcher giving up a stupid number of home runs is probably a bit better than they look. Cease has given up 0.46 HR/9 to Schlitter’s 0.91. 

Wait, you may ask, doesn’t that mean Schlittler has given up more home runs? Yes, my good friend, it does, but it also means that Cease has been pretty lucky in the home run/fly ball department. Schlittler has also been fairly lucky, as the two are both below league average in HR/FB rate. And while home runs are not totally outside of the pitcher’s control (both guys are good at avoiding loud contact, see below), I’m giving Schlittler points and discounting some of Cease’s luck. Seems fair.

Barrel Rate

Advantage: Cease (2-1 Cease)

Barrel rate is great for pitcher evaluation because it focuses on avoiding the worst type of batted-ball event rather than luck-based outcomes. Cease is a beast at that assignment, posting a 4.4 percent barrel rate to Schlittler’s 8.3 percent. That second number isn’t bad, it’s top 40 in baseball, but Cease’s figure is positively elite.

When we talk about “impact”, we have to talk about goals for each player. There are lots of ways to get outs, and I think a starting pitcher has to limit the kinds of moments that hurt teams the most. In that arena, Cease has been a tough customer.

Innings Pitched 

Advantage: Schlittler (2-2 Tie)

(stares intently at paper) Does this say “innings pitched”? We’re doing IP out here? We just talked about BARREL RATE and now you’re hitting me with INNINGS PITCHED?!

Yep, because I think it matters for the Cy Young, and I’m not the only one. Schlittler has pitched 20.1 more innings than Cease, and has three more starts to his name. Of course, injuries and other missed games aren’t necessarily a pitcher’s fault, but it needs to be factored in. It’s why Shohei Ohtani will eternally have issues with the NL Cy Young voting no matter how well he pitches. If you’re accounting for fewer total innings, that difference in impact can’t just be ignored.

Strikeouts/9

Advantage: Cease (3-2 Cease WINS) 

I’m a sucker for strikeouts. They’re super valuable, but they’re also the most direct way a pitcher impacts the game. When you strike out a batter, it’s wind, pitch, maybe a touch of catcher framing and wham! Sit down.

Cease doesn’t just lead Schlittler in K rate; he's second only to Jacob Misiorowski at 36.9 percent. The closest non-Cease/Misiorowski guy? Jacob deGrom at 30.4, while Schlittler sits at 29.2. (While Schlittler makes up some of that gap by having a better walk rate, Cease also wins the K%-BB% rate battle.) This is just another league of sending hitters packing, and I think it’s the purest and most irrefutable evidence of pitcher impact. I like a ground ball as much as the next guy, but for the Cy Young? Punch some guys out.

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