The Detroit Tigers are still listening on Tarik Skubal, as they should. Skubal is entering the final year of his contract and, with the MLB Winter Meetings finally upon us, there's a slim chance Scott Harris is blown away enough to make a deal.
It would be surprising if the Tigers dealt Skubal in Orlando, but it'd be even more shocking if they extended him. Detroit has a good reason for that, and it's not as if Chris Ilitch doesn't have the money.
The ghost of a bad contract could haunt the Tigers, Tarik Skubal
The Tigers signed Javy Baez to a six-year, $140 million deal back in December of 2021. The goal, at the time, was to build this Tigers team through the middle of the field. What better way to do that than by signing Baez, one of the best shortstops on the open market, to a lucrative long-term deal? Think again.
Baez has been dreadful during his time in Detroit, though he did bounce back quite nicely in 2025, starting in center field for the Americal League at the midsummer classic. After the All-Star Break, however, Baez had just a .548 OPS and looked much like his old self. His overall .680 OPS (which is still well below average) was the best of his Tigers career. In 2023 and 2024, Baez had an OPS below .600.
The Tigers pay Baez $24 million a year to essentially be below replacement level. He was a lightning rod at times last season, including in the playoffs when it looked like Detroit couldn't buy a hit. But, again, he hasn't played remotely like a $140 million player, which could make the Tigers weary of giving a starting pitcher over $400 million.
Why Tigers are weary of giving Tarik Skubal the extension he wants
As talented as Skubal is – and he's won back-to-back AL Cy Young awards for a reason – he also plays a demanding position, and one that often cannot stay healthy. Skubal has undergone one Tommy John surgery already, which occurred back in his collegiate days at Seattle U. Per the National Library of Medicine, upwards of 35 percent of patients who go under the knife once to receive Tommy John, end up needing a second surgery. That is all patients – not just those who throw a baseball over 100 MPH on a regular basis.
By no means can I predict the future, and I certainly hope Skubal is in the majority of players who don't need another invasive surgery, but you can see why a statistic like that would give Detroit some pause.
Most importantly, though, is the contract. $400 million is a lot of money and would be the largest in franchise history. The Tigers are a mid-market team that isn't spending like it used to. Chris Ilitch isn't willing to throw money around like his father, Mike, who wanted nothing more than to see his beloved Tigers win a World Series before he passed away in 2017.
And, again, that strategy doesn't always work. Chris Ilitch hired Harris in part because he could develop talent and build an organization from the bottom up, rather than forcing the Tigers to outspend other contenders in free agency. Replacing Skubal internally is a different ballgame, but Harris and Ilitch are confident they could do so if it's required.
What it would take for Tigers to extend Tarik Skubal
First, the Tigers must escape the mindset that spending doesn't necessarily equal winning in the postseason. The Dodgers have proven that thought a fallacy for two straight years now. If Detroit extends Skubal for the long haul, their chances of winning a World Series go up dramatically, full stop.
Unfortunately for Detroit, Scott Boras is Skubal's agent. This likely means that Skubal will reach free agency, as most Boras clients do. That shouldn't stop Harris and Ilitch from negotiating with Skubal's agent now, though. At the very least, the two sides could be on good terms heading into next offseason.
With a lockout looming, the Tigers could be in some luck. Stars like Skubal will want their futures decided – and thus their contracts negotiated – before a work stoppage. If Detroit can be one of the few organizations willing to make a deal before the new CBA (unlikely, for what it's worth), then they may stand a better chance than some pundits think.