The Kyle Tucker chase has seemingly come down to three teams, each of which offers its own distinct advantages. The Blue Jays, for one, can come closest to giving Tucker exactly what he asked for at the beginning of free agency – a long-term deal that takes his worth into account. The Dodgers and Mets prefer short-term agreements, but at a much higher AAV.
Tucker is expected to sign in the coming days, if not today, as he receives final offers from teams. Each destination has its own advantages. The Dodgers and Blue Jays just met in the World Series, and seem to have a clear path back there. The Mets feature the richest owner in sports, and Tucker would provide New York with the best offensive outfield in baseball.
Los Angeles Dodgers have one final argument for Tucker
Per USA Today MLB Insider Bob Nightengale, the Los Angeles Dodgers are lurking on Tucker and offered him a high AAV, but short-term deal. There's no word on how it compares to the New York Mets deal, which would pay him over $50 million per season.
The Dodgers best argument – and likely one they made to Tucker – is that they are the perfect short-term destination. Los Angeles has won back-to-back World Series' and is favored to secure a three-peat. Their odds would only increase with the acquisition of Tucker, who is universally considered a top-15 player in baseball.
Thus, the Dodgers argument is applicable when compared to the Mets. Even if New York offers a higher AAV, they're still a step behind the Dodgers, as is every other team in baseball. If Tucker values winning in the short term above all else, then the decision has been made for him.
Blue Jays have an edge no Tucker suitor can replicate
The Blue Jays were long favored to sign Tucker – and still are, assuming his asking price and determination to land a long-term contract is the same. Per Jon Heyman, those around Tucker believe Toronto is the right market size and spring training destination for the soon-to-be 29-year-old outfielder.
Frankly, Toronto is offering a reasonable contract for Tucker. It's surprising more teams aren't in on one of the best players in the sport. The Blue Jays' advantages, while very real, aren't insurmountable should another contender join them in the long-term deal conversation, but ownership groups prefer short-term investments, even if they come at a greater annual price.
Myles Straw, who is one of Tucker's best friends, also plays for the Blue Jays and has been openly recruiting him on social media (and presumably in-person). Tucker is among the quieter stars in baseball. He prefers his space, and long-term destination, decided for him. That's where the Jays come in, as FanSided's Chris Kline explains:
"The security of a decade-plus contract is going to be hard to pass up, even with all the aforementioned benefits of a short-term arrangement. And even for a player as bankably dominant as Tucker. He has dealt with his share of injuries in recent years and nothing is guaranteed," Kline wrote.
And no one knows that better than Tucker, a star who was traded from the Houston Astros to the Chicago Cubs just last winter.
If the Mets miss on Tucker, what's their backup plan?
The Mets made Tucker a godfather offer, hoping the outfielder would take it and test the market again in a few years. This has been a popular approach for Scott Boras clients, of which Tucker is not. Rather, the mistake the Mets and several teams have made is assuming Tucker wants the highest payday possible, rather than security. Tucker knows better than most that he could be traded or injured at any given moment. He's dealt with both of those insecurities in the last season alone.
So, if Tucker doesn't take the Mets $50 million per year offer, where should they pivot?
Cody Bellinger would make a lot of sense if New York is still seeking an outfielder opposite of Juan Soto. Bellinger is a better defensive player in the corner outfield spot, and can play center or first base. That has to mean something. The Mets could also steal Bellinger from the Yankees much like they did Soto, sending a message to New York baseball fans, albeit a costly one.
The more likely option is that should the Mets not sign Tucker – and they have about a 33 percent chance of doing so as of this writing – they focus more on positions of need. While New York needs another bat, starting pitcher is a greater roster flaw. Framber Valdez remains available, though he should have a large number of suitors once his market really gets moving.
There's a lot on the line for the Mets in Tucker's decision. It could very well decide which way their offseason will turn just a month ahead of spring training.