The New York Mets are surging in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, with FanSided’s own Robert Murray reporting an offer worth $50 million annually. Moreover, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported a three-year framework, which could mean Tucker gets somewhere in Sammon’s reported range of $120-140 million total when accounting for deferrals, which are commonplace in deals of this nature.
In addition to New York, Tucker has been connected to the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers throughout the offseason. If he’s willing to take a short-term, high-AAV deal — we can basically assume this Mets offer features successive opt-outs after each season — that at least opens the door for an unexpected suitor.
Why would Kyle Tucker accept a short-term contract?
Most projections coming into the offseason estimated Tucker’s next contract somewhere in the 10-year, $400 million range. He’s one of the absolute best players in baseball — a five-tool corner outfielder with incredible discipline and pop at the plate, plus base-stealing speed and a Gold Glove reputation. He’s also entering free agency at the peak of his powers, in the prime of his career, at 28 years old. So why is he suddenly pondering a short-term deal?
It’s simple, a classic page out of the Scott Boras playbook. It’s really no surprise that Tucker and his reps might steal it. There’s a difference between projecting a 10-year contract and a free agent actually receiving a 10-year contract to his liking. Paying Tucker $40 million in his age-39 season is a risky proposition for any team, even the league’s most ambitious spenders. It’s far more responsible for a team like the Mets or Dodgers, with signifricant long-term salary already wrapped up in Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani, to focus on paying Tucker in his prime, without staying on the hook for a whole decade.
From Tucker’s perspective, if he’s not getting the annual salary he wants from long-term proposals, he can easily accept a short-term contract, bank $50 million, and then opt into free agency next winter. Perhaps the market is a bit friendler then. If he puts together a fully healthy campaign and helps a team compete well into October, his prospects will almost certainly improve.
There is risk to a short-term deal from Tucker’s perspective, of course. If he gets hurt or underperforms, those 10-year offers could evaporate. But given his remarkable track record of production and winning impact, it’s an exceedingly reasonable bet on himself.
So… let’s dive into all potential suitors as the Tucker landscape unfolds.
Kyle Tucker dark horses: Probably not… but never say never
8. Pittsburgh Pirates
The odds of Kyle Tucker landing with the Pittsburgh Pirates are approximately zero, but the Pirates did notably put four years and $120 million on the table for Kyle Schwarber. That’s a $40 million AAV, which ain’t $50 million. But it’s close, and Tucker is a much better investment than Schwarber, especially if it’s a three-year investment max.
Pittsburgh would probably need to stretch beyond the Mets’ $50 million threshold to convince Tucker to sign in, well, Pittsburgh, but this newly aggressive Pirates front office at least merits a passing mention. For the first time in a long time, the Pirates are here to play ball.
7. Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies tend to take the opposite approach to star free agents — lotta years, lower AAV — but Tucker presents a unique oppportunity for Dave Dombrowski, who has never been afraid to purchase from the top shelf in free agency. The Phillies could still use an upgrade in the outfield, and the risk of signing Tucker is mitigated on a short-term contract. That’s especially nifty with Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber all locked up through their mid-to-late 30s.
In order to stomach the $50 million AAV their division rivals are floating, the Phillies would need to work some magic behind closed doors, potentially offloading Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos, not to mention bidding farewell to free agent catcher JT Realmuto. Bo Bichette seems infinitely more likely at this point, but the Phillies could be lurking in the shadows.
6. Los Angeles Angels
Again, almost certainly not. But the Los Angeles Angels freed up some money with their Anthony Rendon resolution and it’s high time to start putting winning pieces around Mike Trout again, while there’s still even a faint hope of making up ground in the AL West. The Angels’ front office can spend on the level necessary to acquire Tucker — we’ve seen it before — and the locale ought to appeal to Tucker if he’s also seriously considering the other L.A. team.
That said, the Angels are the worst team on this list by a country mile and most of the reporting around the team suggests a desire to slow-play things, rather than taking an immediate step forward. And thus, do not count on it.
5. San Francisco Giants
Of the so-called dark horses, the San Francisco Giants are easily the most believeable outcome. It’s a luxurious coastal market and we’ve seen the Giants make a run at all the premium free agents of late, from Shohei Ohtani to Juan Soto. It seems like president of baseball ops Buster Posey is starting to take his foot off the gas pedal after the Rafael Devers trade, but the Giants have the money — and the motivation — to get in on this, especially if the risk is mitigated by a short-term deal.
San Francisco has all the bones of a contender, from a solid one-two rotation punch with Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, to a supremely talented core of Devers, Matt Chapman and Willy Adames. The Giants have invested significantly in this roster already, but the results continue to lag behind. Tucker gives San Francisco a real chance to hack it with L.A.
Maybe… just maybe
4. New York Yankees
After damn near two months of virtual silence, the New York Yankees are finally stirring in free agency. Their efforts remain focused on re-signing Cody Bellinger, but a reported standoff — with Bellinger aiming for seven years and the Yankees stuck on five — could lead New York to explore other options. Tucker would qualify not just as an alternative, but an upgrade.
New York was willing to spend north of $700 million on Juan Soto last winter, so there’s no doubt that the Yankees have the money to pay Tucker, whether it’s a short- or long-term deal. Tucker is not quite on Soto’s level, of course, but the Yankees need another major bat to protect Aaron Judge in the three-hole. Tucker is a dream outcome. It just takes owner Hal Steinbrenner mustering the necessary gumption to spend money like the Yankees of all organizations ought to spend money.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
With Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Will Smith all under wraps for the foreseeable future, the Dodgers are probably done with decade-long contracts, except in special circumstances. If Tucker starts shopping around in the three-year, $150 million range, however, this Dodgers front office cares not about the Competitive Balance Tax. L.A. gives Tucker the clearest path to a World Series and the chance to play in a robust coastal market. There are a lot of reasons to say yes.
It has been a fairly quiet offseason for L.A. since the Edwin Díaz signing, too, which only fuels speculation that a big splash — such as signing Tucker — is coming down the pipeline. The two teams listed ahead of L.A. both need Tucker more, and should be able to outbid even this Dodgers front office. But if Tucker just wants to boost his numbers, maybe win a ring, and cash in next winter, he can’t do much better than the Dodgers.
Kyle Tucker frontrunners: Which way, baseball man?
2. New York Mets
Last season’s all-out pursuit of Juan Soto, which ended in a 15-year, $765 million contract, probably misled folks when it comes to the methods of GM David Stearns. He didn’t build the small-market Brewers into an annual contender with high-profile free agent splurges. Steve Cohen, the richest owner in baseball, gives Stearns the flexibility to go out and write a blank check. But he won’t do so indiscriminately. The Mets will attempt to be reasonable with their investments, the long view always in mind.
That leads us to Tucker. The Mets don’t want to be on the hook for 39-year-old Kyle Tucker and 37-year-old Juan Soto at max salary. “But that’s a decade from now, who cares?” will be the response from thousands of Mets fans. Again, though, Stearns will take the patient, pragmatic approach. It’s how he’s wired.
That is why the Mets are playing the short-term game. Even if that means Tucker only sticks around Queens for a year, there’s still immense value in a year of Tucker, Soto and Francisco Lindor at the peak of their powers. If things go well, maybe it gives the Mets more confidence to strike a long-term deal next winter. Maybe it makes Tucker comfortable sticking around at a less exorbitant price. Regardless of how it plays out, the Mets will have given themselves the option to abandon ship or prolong the relationship, based on up-close experience and inside knowledge.
That is how the Mets can win this sweepstakes. If Tucker decides he won’t make enough from a longer-term deal in [redacted], the Mets can give him the highest AAV next season. Then he can reassess after what is sure to be a successful campaign alongside some of MLB’s most talented players.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays remain the tentative favorites to sign Kyle Tucker — a status Toronto has maintained throughout the offseason. Tucker visited the Blue Jays’ spring facility outside of Tampa all the way back in early December, as FanSided’s Robert Murray reported. This connection is well established. Toronto is the best team in the AL, with an offensive philosophy perfectly attuned to Tucker’s skill set. Moreover, the Blue Jays are loaded cash-wise, with extra motivation to spend after a heartbreaking Game 7 loss to L.A. in the World Series.
Unlike the Mets, Toronto appears willing to give Tucker a bunch of years, having already made “a long-term offer,” per ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The security of a decade-plus contract is going to be hard to pass up, even with all the aforementioned benefits of a short-term arrangement. And even for a player as bankably dominant as Tucker. He has dealt with his share of injuries in recent years and nothing is guaranteed.
Besides the Dodgers, Toronto is absolutely the best team — on paper — that Tucker can join. Opinions may be mixed on living outside the U.S., but Toronto is an incredible city by all accounts (I haven’t had the privledge of visiting). Tucker can rest assured that Toronto will remain competitive, too, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Dylan Cease are under contract for another 14 years and seven years, respectively. And this front office will always be a player for top free agents. Spending the remainder of his career next to Vladdy Jr. is not the worst setup. It gives Tucker a long window to potentially compete for a World Series title, which would probably feel a bit more special than winning one in L.A., if we’re being completely honest.
Toronto can play the short-term game, too, if that’s the route Tucker prefers. The Mets probably win the head-to-head bidding war on a three-year deal, though. Toronto won’t hand Tucker $50 million annually; it’s a question of whether the AAV rises high enough over 8-12 years for Toronto to lock up Tucker and throw away the key.