It's a scary time to be a free agent, especially one with an astronomical asking price. No, I am not Scott Boras, nor was that a very good pun, but former Houston Astros ace Framber Valdez needs a new home. There are some concerns, which we've documented, about an incident where he crossed up his catcher late in the 2025 season. He then failed to take responsibility. Deny, deny, deny.
Valdez is the last big fish remaining on the market. When that domino falls, the rest should sign shortly thereafter. The only problem for Valdez is that no obvious suitor has come forward, and they may be waiting for Tarik Skubal's arbitration hearing to resolve itself before they do.
Why Tarik Skubal's arbitration case is tied to Framber Valdez
Skubal's arbitration hearing will be one of the most consequential events of this offseason, not just for he and the Tigers, but also for Valdez. As the last ace-level talent remaining on the free-agent market, whether Skubal receives $19 million or $32 million via a hearing – a wide gap, mind you – could determine whether the Tigers decide to trade him or not. Here's how Skubal's ask compares to other record-breaking arbitration wins for starting pitchers when you include arbitration.
Player | Offer | Offer with inflation |
|---|---|---|
David Price | $19.75 million | $27 million |
Jacob deGrom | $17 million | $21.89 million |
Tarik Skubal | $19 million | $19 million |
If Skubal only receives $19 million, then it would behoove Detroit to trade him now. The Tigers came within a game of the ALCS last season. With Skubal in tow, they could reach that mark again, and would immediately become one of the favorites in the AL Central. Without him, they are just another mid-market team that failed to spend this offseason
Where will the Tigers go from here?
If Skubal gets his $32 million, Detroit could be more inclined to trade him now and bite the bullet. No matter what happens at that hearing, the Tigers front office will argue against its greatest asset receiving a fair market value. Does that sound like an amenable situation to you? I doubt it.
Things could move fast for Detroit if Skubal receives his payday. The Tigers surely know what the market is for Skubal, as they've reportedly received offers for him this winter. A few steps down the road, should they deal Skubal, Valdez would be a decent backup plan, and arguably a more affordable one at that if open to a short-term deal. But at this point, we are just spitballing.
If the Tigers have more money to spend, either via Skubal receiving less than market value or after trading him elsewhere, ideally Detroit would spend some of that on a replacement.
Pirates could make a play for Framber Valdez
The Pirates have tried and failed to make a big swing in free agency this offseason. First, they were interested in Kyle Schwarber, even offering him a monstrous four-year deal. Then, it was Eugenio Suarez, who turned down Pittsburgh's one-year deal with the potential to go higher than the Reds, the suitor he eventually signed with. The Pirates are learning the hard way that money will only get them so far. Relationships, and their reputation around MLB, have plagued them all offseason long.
On Wednesday, news broke that Pittsburgh has emerged as one of the most aggressive suitors for Valdez. Ken Rosenthal identified a link between the former Astros ace and his old pitching coach, Bill Murphy, who now has the same position with the Pirates.
Pitcher | ERA |
|---|---|
Paul Skenes | 1.97 |
Framber Valdez | 3.66 |
Mitch Keller | 4.19 |
Bubba Chandler | 4.02 |
Braxton Ashcraft | 2.71 |
As entertaining as it is to imagine a rotation featuring Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Valdez and Mitch Keller (among others), it's fair to wonder just how realistic such a move is, and if it's how the Pirates should be spending their money.
Pirates are chasing after the wrong upgrade
First, of all of Valdez's suitors, the Pirates are the least likely to splurge on him. And, at that rate, if Valdez is forced to choose between short-term contracts with opt outs, why wouldn't he go to a more competitive team like the Orioles or Blue Jays?
But as far as the Pirates are concerned, their rotation is already the strength of their team. Areas of weakness, like the lineup, have been addressed to a certain degree, but they have plenty of room to improve. Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn can only take Pittsburgh so far.
Skenes is an all-world pitcher and won the NL Cy Young award last season. He'll be favored to do so again. He also received the 17th-worst run support among all starting pitchers in MLB last season, and had an overall record of 10-10 despite featuring an ERA under 2.00. What does that tell Ben Cherington?
Marcell Ozuna, a free-agent DH with 40-home run power could be in the cards. That'd be a nice addition. Valdez, on the other hand, is unnecessary.