For those MLB pundits who assume the best teams in baseball create their own luck, I submit to you the following article. Luck, as it turns out, can be measured. One need not look any further than the standings, as a team's expected win-loss record compared to the real thing can paint a stark picture.
For teams like the Rays and Cardinals, lady luck is on their side. St. Louis has an expected win-loss record a full four games worse than their actual margin. The Rays are MLB's luckiest team, as their expected win-loss record is just 25-20. Meanwhile, they sit atop the AL East with a 30-15 record. Of course, expected wins and losses don't tell the entire story. These statistics are determined by run differential, which can often be misleading if said team is on the wrong side of a blowout. Don't tell that to Yankees and Dodgers fans, though.
AL East
Team | Record | Games Back | Last 10 Games | Expected W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | 30-15 | -- | 7-3 | 25-20 |
New York Yankees | 28-19 | 3.0 | 3-7 | 31-16 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 21-25 | 9.5 | 5-5 | 22-24 |
Baltimore Orioles | 21-26 | 10.0 | 4-6 | 19-28 |
Boston Red Sox | 19-27 | 11.5 | 4-6 | 21-25 |
If you can name more than a handful of players on the Tampa Bay Rays, you know more than most casual baseball fans. Tampa has been on a roll since the end of April, and finally overtook the Yankees for first place in the AL East last week. They've since added to that lead despite a run differential that pales in comparison to New York. The Yankees have a far greater expected win-loss record than the Rays, and if that held true to this point in the season they'd have a commanding division lead.
Of course, as I mentioned earlier in this story, run differential doesn't tell the entire story. The Yankees rotation has been dealt some tough injury blows early this season, in particular with Max Fried landing on the IL. The returns of Carlos Rodon and eventually Gerrit Cole could go a long way in evening the score, so to speak.
AL Central
Team | Record | Games Back | Last 10 Games | Expected W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians | 26-22 | -- | 7-3 | 25-23 |
Chicago White Sox | 24-22 | 1.0 | 7-3 | 22-24 |
Minnesota Twins | 21-26 | 4.5 | 5-5 | 23-24 |
Detroit Tigers | 20-27 | 5.5 | 2-8 | 22-25 |
Kansas City Royals | 20-27 | 5.5 | 3-7 | 21-26 |
A division that was defined by teams hovering around the .500 mark finally offers some degree of separation thanks to the recent hot streaks from the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox. Cleveland just secured its first sweep of the season last week. Meanwhile, the White Sox survived a tough crosstown weekend test against the Cubs.
The Detroit Tigers, once thought to be the main competition of Cleveland in the Central have fallen off dramatically since Tarik Skubal's injury. While Skubal is expected to return from a scope to remove loose bodies in his elbow sooner than expected, he alone will not solve the Tigers woes.
AL West
Team | Record | Games Back | Last 10 Games | Expected W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Athletics | 23-23 | -- | 5-5 | 22-24 |
Texas Rangers | 22-24 | 1.0 | 5-5 | 23-23 |
Seattle Mariners | 22-26 | 2.0 | 4-6 | 25-23 |
Houston Astros | 19-29 | 5.0 | 4-6 | 19-29 |
Los Angeles Angels | 16-31 | 7.5 | 2-8 | 18-29 |
The Athletics are one of the best stories in baseball. A team without a home playings its ball in a minor-league park in Sacramento has a hold on the AL West, albeit not by a wide margin. The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners loom as far more proven rosters. Seattle in particular made a run to the ALCS just last season, and were a game away from winning the pennant.
Given their expected win-loss record, the Mariners should still be favored to win this division, assuming they can break out of their early-season slump. One need not look further than Cal Raleigh, who is on the injured list and hitting under the Mendoza line despite his record-setting 2025 season.
NL East
Team | Record | Games Back | Last 10 Games | Expected W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves | 32-15 | -- | 6-4 | 34-13 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 24-23 | 8.0 | 7-3 | 22-25 |
Washington Nationals | 23-24 | 9.0 | 6-4 | 22-25 |
Miami Marlins | 21-26 | 11.0 | 5-5 | 22-25 |
New York Mets | 20-26 | 11.5 | 6-4 | 21-25 |
The Braves are far and away the best team in the NL East, and arguably the greatest threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League as a whole. While the Phillies have come on of late, the deficit in the East remains a solid eight games, which could take months to make up barring a complete collapse by Atlanta. The Braves bullpen, highlighted by the three-headed monster of Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias, is one of the best in baseball.
Speaking of those pesky Phillies, they have rebounded from firing Rob Thomson in April quite well. The Phillies swept the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend at PNC Park, buoyed by efforts from Christopher Sanchez, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
NL Central
Team | Record | Games Back | Last 10 Games | Expected W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs | 29-18 | -- | 4-6 | 28-19 |
Milwaukee Brewers | 26-18 | 1.5 | 8-2 | 28-16 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 27-19 | 1.5 | 6-4 | 23-23 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 24-23 | 5.0 | 4-6 | 25-22 |
Cincinnati Reds | 24-23 | 5.0 | 4-6 | 20-27 |
The Central-leading Cubs lost two out of three games to the crosstown rival White Sox over the weekend. That wasn't the result they were looking for heading into a pivotal matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers early this week. The winner of that series sets themselves up well heading into Memorial Day weekend.
Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals are steady as ever. Despite a lackluster run differential and an expected win-loss record of 23-23, the Cardinals are, in fact, far better than that, and just 1.5 games back in a crowded Central division full of teams over .500. If Chaim Bloom wanted to retool this team in his vision, he's going to have to wait until the trade deadline.
NL West
Team | Record | Games Back | Last 10 Games | Expected W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | 29-18 | -- | 6-4 | 33-14 |
San Diego Padres | 28-18 | 0.5 | 6-4 | 24-22 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 22-23 | 6.0 | 5-5 | 21-24 |
San Francisco Giants | 20-27 | 9.0 | 6-4 | 19-28 |
Colorado Rockies | 18-29 | 11.0 | 4-6 | 19-28 |
The Dodgers have little to worry about at this point in the season. Los Angeles is built to win when it matters, rather than just in May. That being said, their expected win-loss record is four games worse than the actual result, which could grow concerning if the supposed little brother Padres are able to stick with them over the long haul. The Padres expected win-loss record is just two games over .500. However, with a sound bullpen lead by the ever-dominant Mason Miller has them in prime position to overtake LA should they slip up.
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